Drumroll, Please

Well, for what it's worth, the Internet Baseball Awards for 2005 are out.

Congrats, Albert.

Congrats, Sox...

...your World Series victory now means that more teams than not have won a championship since the Cardinals' last title in 1982.

Of franchises that can claim a World Series title, only the Phillies ('80), Pirates ('79), Giants ('54), Indians ('48) and Cubs ('08) have a longer dry spell than the Birds. [list corrected after comment from astute reader]

Still to win a World Series are (inception date in parentheses): Texas/Washington (1961); Houston ('62); Milwaukee/Seattle ('69); Washington/Montreal ('69); San Diego ('69); Seattle ('77); Colorado ('93); Tampa Bay ('98).

LaRussa and the Post-Season

Maybe I should've moved onto the World Series, but I'm still trying to sort out the latest Cardinals meltdown. It started with Brian Gunn's column, which seemed to emphasize Jocketty's shortcomings, particularly Mulder and the geezers. I see the Cardinals organization centering more around LaRussa though, so I decided to take a look at what LaRussa's teams have done in the post-season. Retrosheet has a couple of pages like this that are easily converted to databases. The one downside is that I don't have 2005 data yet.

I need to note up front that statistical significance is going to be a problem. I'm not looking to blame anybody so much as understand the path LaRussa's teams have taken. So here are a couple of charts on the LaRussa's 82 pre-2005 post-season games along with data from the 948 other team-games in the same time-frame:

The bright object here are the 0-run games. LaRussa's teams have been shutout 11 times in the post-season, which is about twice as frequent as average. LaRussa's had some good offenses, albeit mostly in the non-DH league, so this is particularly odd. Last year's squad had one of the prettiest attacks that you'll ever see, and they got shutout in the post-season in games started by Jose Lima, Brandon Backe and Derek Lowe (Lowe gave up more runs in 2004 than any other major league pitcher). Looking at the runs allowed chart, what "should" be 1-run or 3-run games are -- or, considering the 2005 NLCS not included here, were -- sometimes shutouts.

On the other hand, LaRussa's squads only have one shutout in the post-season, which is well below average. What "should" be shutouts have turned into 1-run games and what should've been 2-games became 3-games. Actually the blue lines in the two charts are relatively close since they're measuring mostly the same events, but all of LaRussa's 1-run and 3-games are distorting my scale. The lack of shutouts isn't a complete surprise, as LaRussa's only Hall of Fame pitcher to this point has been Dennis Eckersley. He's had some nice pitchers, just not great pitchers.

While the just-completed post-season will flatten things out a bit, you'll still see a similar picture. I suppose there's nothing wrong with being the Ivan Lendl of the baseball world.

The Offseason Is Here

The first sign is a Post-Dispatch report card on the 2005 season. Yadier Molina graded as a B+ even though he hit 252 / 295 / 358 this past year. It's like Mike Matheny never left.

The PD has another article with some financial particulars for 2006. You may want to copy and paste that one to STL_Budget.doc so that you can update the "2006" tab in STL_Budget.xls. I didn't realize Mulder's option had vested already.

Before you start filling out the Cardinals' roster for 2006, you might want to check Nate Silver's article on when it's smart to acquire big-money free agents. Even if you're a subscriber, you may have missed it, as early September is an odd time for Cardinals fans to be focusing on baseball economics. This kind of general research is something BPro does well, and in this particular instance Silver's main finding is worth quoting:

There is a very substantial, and very non-linear, increase in local revenues that a team can expect as a result of making the playoffs. More specifically, this increase is felt over the longer term. A single playoff appearance can result in a meaningful increase in both attendance revenues and local broadcasting revenues for as many as 10 years.

With a solid core already in place, I expect the Cardinals will try to find the cheapest way to 95 wins again.

It hits you in the strangest ways

Last night my daughter (16 months old) ran to the TV and started saying 'ball, ball, ball'. I had to tell her it will be a while before we watch ball on TV again.

Always a Bridesmaid

Let the record show Yadiar Molina made the last out ever at Busch stadium.

Another year gone, another playoff exit. Ryan asked some questions yesterday and now I'd like to ask some more:

1. Do we bring Sanders back? He had a good year, but he's old and creaky. [yes, for cheap]
2. Who plays right next year? [Gall. Give him a chance]
3. Is it time to let La Russa go? We make it to the playoffs a lot, but man this team dies in the post season, the NLCS this year, World Series Last year, NLCS in 2002, NLCS in 2000 (they lost to Arizona in the Division Series in 2001, but those were close hard fought games). That's a sweep, two wins this year, and a win each in 2002 and 2001. They seem to roll up and die at some point in the playoffs. [No. But it's hard for me to say that. The Cardinals have missed the playoffs once so far this decade and the only time they didn't make it out of the first round they lost to the eventual champions. It's a great run. So La Russa's doing something right, I just wish he'd figure that last little bit out]
4. How long does Edmonds have left? At 35 Jim just posted his lowest OPS as a Cardinal. [I can't see Edmonds going for more than two more years.]
5. Does Pujols finally get his MVP? [yes, he's sat behind Barry for a few years now he gets it]
6. Does Carpenter get the Cy Young [No, the Rockets a Hall of famer and he'll get it based on that alone]
7. Whats the Cardinals Priority in the offseason? [Bullpen, Starting pitching. Same as it ever was]
8. Do we really need a new stadium? [no. I'm going to miss Busch. The worst part of last nights game was realizing I'll never see another one there]

Another year in the books, a rough ending, but not as bad as last year. Now at least people will stop asking me if I'm 'really disappointed' in the Cardinals because of their World Series choke. It was so close to being spectacular though...

Don't stop believin

Sometimes last night's leftover dessert becomes today's appetizer. I'm sure many have already heard these, but I had to post them just for the record.

Pujol's mythical swat again:

What Astros fans heard.

Crazy like Fox.

Larrrrrrrrrrrrrgo!

Shannon tells it like it is.

ESPN.

Finally, in order to redeem myself for even mentioning Phil Collins, I've taken a page from one of the finest bands to ever rock hard and sing high:

Workin hard to get my fill,
everybody wants a thrill
Payin anything to roll the dice,
... just one, more, time

Some will win, some will lose
Some were born to sing the blues
Oh the movie never ends
It goes on and on and on

Don't stop, believin
Hold on to that feelin......

Thanks again Albert, now let's go out tonight and do it again (and believe me, I won't complain about a boring win).

I can't wait

Two hours and fifteen minutes to go, I'm casting around for some Cardinal related goodness to fill my time. Figured there are probably some people in the same boat so here goes:

New York Times article on the Busch Graffiti

A great long list of that graffiti over at Bird Land

An incredible shot of the stadium

Cardinals Pictures on Flickr (A bunch from the last regular season game)

I loved crossing this bridge, that was the point where it always became real to me that I was going to a game. (See also The Red Fountains, and the entire NLDS Game 2 Set).

The perfect pitcher

Interesting article in the New Yorker if you need something to occupy your mind.

Witte became convinced that he had divined a very important secret: how to safely and dependably throw a ninety-five-mile-per-hour fastball.

...

At first, he was a timid Galileo. One afternoon, Baur invited him on the field to watch Rick Ankiel warm up. “Is that beautiful or what?” Baur said. Witte kept quiet. “I didn’t want to be a nasty guest,” he said. “But internally I said, ‘Or what.’ I just knew he was never going to fulfill his promise.” A few years post hoc, Ankiel lost the ability to throw a baseball within the same county as home plate. He is now an outfielder.

While I'm dumping random links try this Map of Baseball fandom. Which geographic areas support which teams?

Time For some Over-analysis and second-guessing

Why not?

Here are some random thoughts, I'd like to hear what all you experts out there think.

**At this point in time, would anyone rather have Danny Haren than Mark Mulder? [no]

**Is there anyone who, regardless of their price or age, would still rather have Matheny over Molina? In fact, is Molina the most under-rated player on our team? [no, yes - i love this kid's grit and grin]

**I love Eck, Jed and Puj as our 1,2,3 hitters. Eck is the only choice for leadoff. Edmonds high OBP, low GIDP and power threat make him a perfect 2nd (although I could hear arguments for cleanup), and of course you have Puj batting 3rd for the exact reason we saw last night. Who bats 4th? Larry Walker? I have the sinking feeling Walker is a bluff right now. He's seeing the ball fine, but he is getting absolutely no sting on his contact. But if not L-Dubs at cleanup, who? [Walker's worth the bluff, keep him at 4]

**Should Reggie Sanders be in the starting lineup? Can he hit Oswalt? Is his LF defense valuable? [I say bench him. Try Rodriguez or Taguchi.]

**Do we all like batting the pitcher 9th? [I say yes.]

**Who plays 3rd, Luna or Mabry? [I say Luna.]

**OK, I need to go back to it, is there any way that Pujol's HR was only 412 feet? [looked more like 512 ft.]

**Will there be a more exciting place to be in the universe than Busch Stadium on Wednesday night?

**That was definitely a balk by Pettite. Even so, sending the runner? Good decision? [no.]

**Although it was obvious Carp was fading and that Berkman is the Stros best hitter, I can't fault LaRussa for leaving him in. That HR was weak and wouldn't have happened in Busch or most other parks.

**Should we hire a different artist to sculpt Pujols's statue than the one who did Musial's? [yes.]

What they said

No ticky-tack bull shit. A straight up, 400-some odd foot home run.

I still believe all of that, but luck and crapshoots are fun when they're on your side.

Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow.

The Cardinals were playing ball like they still had bones left to break.

so this is what it's like to be alive. well i'll be damned.

And for those who were wondering. Yes, I was praying. Back to Busch.

I will fly to Sweden in order to have experimental elective surgery so that I can have Albert Pujols's child.

We get one more game. Win that one and we get one more. Just win the next one cards.

Game 5

Pujols.

Because Tonight, Tonight, Tonight

Oh, we're gonna make it right, tonight, tonight, tonight... oooohhh.

Believe me, I can't stand Phil Collins or pep talks, but all I can think about is the game tonight. I think most of us have purged ourselves of last night's sad experience and to a certain extent, the lackluster - both mental and physical - play of our Birds this series.

I still think this is something we can pull off. We've been off, but we haven't been off by much. Just a slight shift in the right direction could put us in a threatening spot.

Of course, even though right now I'm freakin nervous like I'm the one playing -- I almost have a cool sweat going -- it's not up to LaRussa or us or the umps or anyone else. It's up to the big boys on the field. And the Astros are in a rhythm, so we need to knock them out of that rhythm. We need to knock them down on their asses and remind them who won the NL Central and who ripped their hearts out last year in the NLCS.

Let's do this like we always knew this. Now we're the under dogs, so let's start growling, snarling and fighting like one. It's time to go toe to toe with these guys. If we go down swinging and scoring and with our bullpen getting shelled, I can take that.

But with Carp on the mound and our backs to the wall, we only have one way to go.

Do Something

Why was Pujols going home with nobody out? Why did he slide like it was a church picnic? That cheap bastard Lane took out Nunez and then had to crawl the rest of the way to the base but Pujols couldn't even bother to try to slide around the tag much less extract some revenge. For Gods sake you're down 2-1 in the score and the series, out by a mile, and nothings gone your way for three games now put your shoulder down and extract some blood. Go in there with some passion damn it. You know how you like to watch your home runs? It's just as fun to stand over the somebody and watch them try to blink away the stars.

The Cardinals have nothing, it's a sickly replay of the World Series last year where every single Cardinal hitter dissapears. And just when Edmonds has a 3-1 count, and I'm positive this is the corner he gets tossed out of the game. That's the most bizzarre way to fail I've ever seen. Just blows my mind. Rodriguez takes his place, fouls a couple of pitches off, and maybe just maybe some Cardinal steps up and puts a stamp on this game but nope he falls 15 feet short. All Mabry has to do is get the ball out of the infield and he can't do it. Marquis can't bunt or field? The game winning run was a sac fly that would have been the third out if Marquis can just field a bunt. It's pathetic.

Do something! Can't somebody, anybody, have a good game? Some extra base hits? Steal a base? Anything? The Astros managed only two runs and their starter only went 5 and two thirds, only got 6 hits, only one for extra bases, and that weak bandbox home run but still the Cards can't win.

Two more things:

1: Phil Cuzzi has the worst strike zone I've ever seen. It was pathetic, changing from batter to batter, up and down and away with no consitency at all. To toss Edmonds in the top of the eigth of close playoff game when Edmonds didn't even move towards him is obscene, the umpire shouldn't be in the game that much. He shouldn't umpire anything you have to pay to attend for the rest of his life after that.

2: Why was Jason Lane not hit? If you have to decide if a play was cheap or not and theres some ambiguity but a bruise on back and let him know you're watching. All the macho protect your players bullshit Tony runs out and he can't send some punk a message?

Okay one more: Please win tomorrow. I can't take watching the Astros celebrate at home. At least deny them that.

Embarrassing

I'm going to confess to a character flaw. In spite of the fact that I understand the relevant numbers, I thought the series was over after yesterday's game. It's silly and I know it and I don't want to present it as a good thing. It's probably just a defense mechanism, an attempt to put psychological distance between me and the team I follow too closely.

So I know I have a problem, but before I can move up the next step of recovery, I get today's effort against Brandon F. Backe. It's the bottom of the third and Backe's faced the minimum. Gosh, this feels a lot like the 2004 World Series... or the 1996 LCS.

Interesting Speculation...

It's probably not economically feasible, but it's an interesting thought. From a John Brattain musing on the trials of being "A-Dog" in today's Hardball Times:

So what can Alex Rodriguez do? Well he has to remember that his image can’t get any worse. He’s going to have to let his game speak for itself. He’ll never satisfy all his critics but he can avoid adding more. He might consider simply not speaking to the media a la Steve Carlton and Albert Belle, since everything he says will be viewed with suspicion or scorn—just let his bat do the talking. If the Yankees brass decides he’s expendable, he should try to get out of the American League; his non-baseball reputation is slag [in many parts] of Seattle, Texas, Boston and New York. We’ve seen players like Roger Maris, Mark McGwire, and Jim Edmonds thrive in St. Louis—maybe A-Rod could find peace there.

Frustrating

In the second one run scored on a Molina past ball.

Bottom of the fifth runners on first and second Jim Edmonds struck out looking.

Bottom of the sixth Grudzielanek fouls a ball off of his foot that the umpire didn't see. Inning over.

Bottom of the seventh runners on first and second Jim Edmonds ground out to First.

Top of the 8th Tavarez throws a wild pitch that puts Lance Berkman on third, then Burke hits a single to right that wouldn't have scored the run from second but does manage to get him home from third. Then Sanders badly misplays an Everett hit to left that scores Burk.

You can erase three runs off the board if the Cardinals play a little cleaner, and if Edmonds comes up in either of those two chances you can tack on a couple more. And that's the difference in the game, a few mistakes, a few missed opportunities.

Oswalt was good, but he wasn't that much better than Mulder: Both starters went seven innings and struck out six. Mulder walked 1 less batter but gave up 3 more hits.

Ryan from Cardinals Diaspora says::

Tomorrow, I suspect there will lots of doom and gloom talk, some probably from by fellow Cards bloggers. Keep Believing. The series is tied 1-1, the Astros have to beat us three more times, only one of which will feature Oswalt, and I suspect if we see him again things will be a little different. We all knew going in this wasn't going to be a sweep, but rather a hard fought, but winnable, series. It remains so.

Now it's a best of 5, definitly winnable. The Cards didn't get blown out tonight: The Astros squeaked one out.

Too Cute

From the Bird Land I found this quote from David Eckstein:

Eckstein said he took second base on the flyball in the eighth inning at Albert Pujols’ insistence. By tagging up after Jim Edmonds’ deep fly ball to center field, Eckstein opened first for the Padres to intentionally walk Pujols. Again. Eckstein said he didn’t have to ask and Pujols motioned to him to do what was necessary.

“He always says, ‘Never stop playing the game,’” Eckstein said. “No matter what, he never wants us to stop playing the game. If they’re going to give you an extra base, take it and let them make that decision.”

Glad to see that Eckstein and Pujols both avoid the tempatation to try to out manuever the other team. Thats a situation that can backfire badly if players try to get too cute.

Larussian 2

I heap my share of scorn on La Russa but there are times when he does everything right. Last night La Russa was in full force, mind gaming Phil Garner into a suicide squeeze that was textbook. Two things about that squeeze:

1. La Russa's reputation and mindgames worked. Garner pitched out 1-0 because La Russa has the reputation of squeezing and La Russa waited. Then on 2-0 with a strike coming La Russa did make the call on a pitch he knew was a strike.

2. It was the right call. With the double play on, one out, and a pitcher up the Cardinals had to be very careful of a double play. La Russa correctly didn't waste the out completly and picked up the run while avoiding the double play. The fact that Cardinals pitchers as a group are excellent bunters isn't an accident, it's something La Russa has worked towards. That successful squeeze was a direct result of La Russas influence.

La Russa also managed the pitching staff very well. Carpenter through 96 pitches in 8 innings. He'd thrown 92 pitches after 7 and La Russa had the option to pull him there with Carpenter leading off the bottom of the seventh. Carpenter had just given up a 2 run home run to cut the lead to 3. At this point with a game tomorrow and a sketchy bullpen La Russa stuck with carpenter who rewarded him with a 4 pitch 8th. I like to see Tony ride his starters in safe places. And this was a safe place to do it, Cards up by three, Carpenter under a hundred pitches on the day, and a full bullpen waiting. La Russa avoided the itchy trigger finger that drives me so nuts about him and was amply rewarded.

Other Stuff:

Jason Isringhausen scares me. In 23 pitches last night he had 1 swing and miss strike. Most of the strikes he through were very low in the strike zone, to the point that if Backe had been getting those calls I would have pissed.

My grandfather tells a story: He was in Pittsburgh in the 80's and through some sort of connection wound up in Three Rivers talking to the grounds crew one afternoon. The groundskeeper was soaking the basepaths, and when my grandpa asked why the guy said "The Cardinals are coming to town this weekend and I wanna slow em down a little". I noticed that the dirt in front of home plate was soaked the entire game. Chris Carpenter gave up 17 ground balls vs 4 fly balls. Coincidence?

What's up with Jeff Bagwell? He's on the roster but in the 9th Garner chose Jose Vizciano to represent the tying run instead of him. Is Garner batty or is Bagwell really hurt? If he's hurt that bad why is he on the roster?

Update: Pittsburghs stadium is Three Rivers, I had it as Riverfront (which was Cincinatti).

55 minutes to go

Out of shame that I've neglected to formally point you all towards one of my favorite bloggers I've added a new blogroll to the sidebar. Not quite cardinal blogs, but blogs whose topics intersect the Cardinals in some way. So if you find yourself unable to screw around at work enough I'm pleased to offer a few more ways to make it possible.

Let me warn you that the above mentioned Mr. Fritz is a genius, and will entertain you to no end, but if you have some sort of restrictive filters on your work surfing you might want to wait till you get home for that one.

Silly Numbers

Many, many years ago I made the mistake of reading some sort of "Math Is Fun" book, and they told me how to do this:

This is a simple path-independent probability tree, and these calculations spit out that the Cardinals have a 60.4% chance at winning the LCS. I'll explain the meaning of all the other silly numbers under the fold. Suffice to say I really think it's a lot closer to 50/50 than 60/40, but I had to come up with something more complicated than "3 down, 8 to go."

UPDATE AFTER GAME 1:

UPDATE AFTER GAME 2:
You didn't think this would be easy, did you?

UPDATE AFTER GAME 3:

UPDATE AFTER GAME 4:

UPDATE AFTER GAME 5:
Don't give up, don't ever give up.

It starts at the top (probability = 1) and moves down a row each game, the horizontal direction depending on who wins (left for the Cards, right for the Stros). The numbers represent the probabilities of moving through each cell. Based on the rather unscientific method of averaging the Cardinals' and Astros' four levels of adjusted records, I've concluded the Cardinals are a true 0.591 team and the Astros are a 0.549 team. Using log5 I've concluded the Cards have a 0.542 probability of winning each game against the Astros in a neutral setting. Further I'll assume that it's plus-or-minus four percent for the homefield team. Thus the chance of a Cardinals sweep would be:

0.582 * 0.582 * 0.502 * 0.502 = 0.085.

The chances of the series being tied at 1-1:

0.582 * 0.418 + 0.418 * 0.582 = 0.487

There's a 30.7% chance of going to a Game 7. Yadi, yadi, yadi.

The various assumptions that drive this are problematic. The Astros are probably better than a 0.549 team now, six of the seven games could be started by the CY3 of Pettitte, Clemens and Oswalt, results of individual games aren't independent of each other, etc. The numbers are rough estimates, so I'm not suggesting anyone take it that seriously. I find the progression interesting though, and of course as the games are completed the 'errors' are corrected.

Enjoy the games, even if you have to find some weird way of getting FX.

Fall Fever

I don't have cable. Not having cable TV in October has sent me on a path of self-destruction worse than Courtney Love on a weeklong furlough in Ensenada. I am keeping a handle on my responsibilities. I still went to a meeting last Thursday during the game. I was lucky to have my brother, who lives in Seattle, and a buddy who attended the game shoot text messages at me the entire time. I don't remember what happened during the meeting. I remember the game via ticker tape. I remember Pujols taking a bases loaded walk. That dude is cool.

Nothing is more exciting than playoff baseball. Here's why. Baseball in the playoffs, more than any other team sport, is about showdowns and defining moments. And you just don't know when they'll happen, so you need to watch every single minute of the game. And even though I make my living by working with stastical data, I admit, in the playoffs, most of that goes out the window. The sample size is too small, the dimensionality is too large. We are just left with man vs. man. Optimal decision theory be damned. At some point in some game, the pitcher is thinking, "I need to bring the heat." The batter is thinking, "He's gonna throw me the heat." The catcher knows it. The ump knows it. The players' wives know it. Even Tim McCarver knows it. So it comes down to the performance of the moment.

The series against San Diego didn't have so many moments, we dominated them from start to finish. But that should change. Houston is a much more formidable opponent. In the Yankees/Angels series, I dare say defense made the difference. And where ARod swung and grounded into a double play, Pujols stands large and delivers again and again and again. Is there anyone in the world you'd rather have in your batter's box than Albert Pujols these days? Absolutely not. Look for him to deliver consistent moments throughout this series. Even when Pujols is wrong, he's right.

From here in, I don't second guess the management. I don't criticize the slippery moves of LaRussa. I instantly forgive Izzy upon the 27th out, because the odds blow out the window with the hot dog wrappers and the foul balls. From here on in, it's all about the moment. When it happens to us, we will call it magic. And although we expect King Albert to deliver such moments, we just never know who the next Cardinal hero will be.

Go Cards.

New Cardinals Blog

A new Cardinals just started up: Birds on Bat Girl. And she starts out Facing head on the nagging feeling I always get around playoff time:

The "sentimental favorite" is a team without the talent to be a favorite, period. The "sentimental favorite" has to get a little lucky to win. The "sentimental favorite" needs hot streaks, opportune rainouts, nearsighted umps, and grabby fans who interfere with all the right balls. Obviously, it's best not to be the sentimental favorite.

But how come we never are?

It seems so odd, because for the rest of the year Cards fans are the best, and the towns a great baseball town. But as soon as the playoffs roll around somebody else is trendy 'wouldn't it be swell' pick. I won't go into it becase she nails it so just read hers.

Related: If there are any Cards blogs that aren't linked on the sidebar or that I overlook you can always email me (josh at thebirdwatch.com), or just post a comment to this entry. Or you can tag anything on the web cardinalslinkblog and it will be posted here automatically. But please let me know because I'm always on the lookout for more reading material.

Baseball Reference Update

With no game until Wednesday, you could drive yourself crazy thinking about all the possibilities for the NLCS. Who would LaRussa pitch in the 19th inning? Do groundball pitchers do better at Minute Maid? Will there be a Jeff Suppan Word of the Day when he (presumably) starts?

One alternative is to check out the 2005 updates at BaseballReference.com. Here's some stuff to ponder:

* Roger Cedeno had a minus-2 OPS+ in 2005.
* No Cardinal pitcher on the post-season roster had an ERA+ below 100.
* Of current relevance, Minute Maid played as a pitcher's park in 2005.
* Almost as shocking, Albert Pujols leads all active players in slugging average.
* Congratulations to John Rodriguez, John Gall, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes on earning their own pages at B-R. You might want to wait a couple of weeks before sponsoring them.

UPDATE at 7:40pm STL Time:
It's an interesting question how the Houston bandbox statistically played as a pitcher's park. Unfortunately at lunchtime I was too busy trying to verify a negative OPS+ makes sense (it does). Let's start with a chart of runs scored:

          Astros  Opponents
Houston    360       271
Elsewhere  333       338

The Astros split about where'd you expect, so we can blame this on the Astros' pitching (or maybe opposing batters just happened to hit worse in Houston). In particular, I'll blame it on Brandon Backe (3.41 v. 5.83), Andy Pettitte (2.12 v. 2.69) and Roy Oswalt (2.52 v. 3.38). In all likelihood, it's just one of those things, but Minute Maid does have a huge centerfield and Taveras can run all over the place.

Quiz

Fungoes has a quiz up, ex Cards in the playoffs.

Larussian

La Russa Drives me insane.

Bottom of the seventh, two outs. Randy Flores (Lefty) came in to face Brian Giles (also Lefty). A six pitch at bat went: Strike (looking), Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Foul, Ground out to pitcher. Inning change, bottom of the 8th Klesko is up (Lefty). One pitch, pop up to shortstop. At this point Flores has thrown seven pitches to two of the Padres best hitters and neither has gotten the ball out of the infield.

Up next is Ramon Hernandez and then Robert Fick. The Cardinals have a 4 run lead. Flores was death on lefties this year (.173/.250/.333/.583) but not so hot against right handed batters (.304/.360/.443/.803), Hernandez is a right handed batter, then Fick is a lefty. Worst case scenario Hernandez homers and the Cardinals are leading by 3 with Flores to deal with Fick. Best case Flores deals with Hernandez, then gets a crack at Fick and Tony can bring in Izzy in the 9th. Instead La Russa blindly plays the numbers and takes out a reliever whose throwing well to bring in Julian Tavarez, who gives up the worse case scenario home run to Hernandez, then gets Fick before giving up a single forcing Tony to bring Izzy in for four batters. La Russa's abundance of caution took an effective reliever out of the game and replaced him with an innefective reliever even though the downside risk of Flores pitching to Hernandez was basically nill. A home run to Hernandez and Flores has the advantage over Fick and La Russa has time to get somebody up in the pen.

It drives me nuts when La Russa does this, he's constantly bringing pitchers out of the game when they're pitching well just to chase that last 3% advantage. Stick with whats working until you have reason to believe it will fail. And with a large lead why take the chance that another reliever is off? Make Flores show he's off before you do anything. Theres no reason to pull him there.

The worst part of the exchange is that Hernandez actually has an inverted split .238/.284/.400/.684 against lefties vs .304/.333/.464/.797 this year (It's a pattern that holds over his career). So the switch the right handed pitcher helped him out.

That Was For the Birds

Survive and advance.

Playing three games in five days with the third game starting at 10pm St. Louis time is nonsense, but you know the Cardinals have been remarkably successful with this Division Series format. In 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004 and now in 2005 they won with that silly Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday made-for-TV schedule. With their only loss in those five series coming against a possessed Jose Lima, we could be grateful that some network executives think the Cardinals are boring.

Nah.

Kudos to Matt Morris for a sturdy performance and to Tony LaRussa for keeping his faith in Morris, a faith few shared. It was reasonable to think this was a loyalty maneuver. While that wasn't the 2001 version of Matt Morris, it wasn't the 2004 version either. Morris pitched a solid game against a lineup that seemed intent on wearing him out with foul balls and against a home plate umpire with a tight, though generally consistent, strike zone. Dan at Get Up Baby has drilled the point into my head that Morris's problem in 2005 has been very different from his 2004 troubles, that Morris has been struggling more with command than with velocity. In particular, MattyMo has had issues with his curveball, which was working fine last night, or at least fine enough by Petco standards. Maybe the extra rest did, and will continue do, him some good.

While the Cardinals offense had scored 14 runs in the previous two games, it had come a bit cheaply as the Padres bumbled in the field. Game 3 was a different matter, as the Birds pounded out 13 clean hits, worked four walks, and finagled a key two-out 0-2 HBP. Jon Miller and Joe Morgan got googly-eyed over Reggie Sanders' 10 RBIs for the series, but the game's hitting hero should've been David Eckstein. A few weeks ago Eckstein told the Reds' announcers in a post-game interview that when he swings for the fences, he really is trying to pull the ball down the left field line, as was the case last night. After Edmonds hit a 400-foot flyout to the would-be power alley, Eck should buy JEd breakfast this morning. I'd snark on Jayson Stark here, except that ESPN has hidden behind its insider wall his column calling Eckstein the worst offseason signing.

I tend to take Albert Pujols for granted, which is stupid, especially since I think it's a grievous fault of the TV networks. His two doubles last night had me shaking my head though. The first inning double looked to be a darn-near perfect pitch on the lower outside corner. The sixth inning double was ripped to the wall, even though Pujols' swing had almost no lower body into it. Even when things are against him, the man can hit.

The only downer was the bullpen, which somehow managed to give up two homers at Petco in three innings of work. They've been solid, if unspectacular, all season and three games don't have a lot of predictive power. However, in the absence of Al Reyes they could use a boost. We've all been looking at the starting rotation backwards, I think. There's not much to distinguish among Suppan, Marquis and Morris as starters, maybe a matchup here or there, although even those can be questionable. As relievers, Marquis or Morris could bring some decent gas and wouldn't wet their pants when facing a good left-handed hitter. There's an obvious need and an obvious opportunity here. OK, it's not an obvious match.

The Cardinal did what they had to do in the LDS, so it's onto the LCS, where the Cardinals' dreams have died so many times during the LaRussa era. The competition will put forth stouter resistance and the Cardinals will need to bring their A-game. Unlike the LDS, when I was genuinely relieved when the games finally got under way, my neuroses will be in full force when the next round starts on Wednesday.

Midnight Madness

It's awfully late out here in the EST, but we'll be up and watching the game (beginning at 11:09 p.m.!) anyway. Tonight's pitching matchup consists of two of the Cards' best pitchers of the 2000's -- Matt Morris vs. Woody Williams. The Cards can sweep the Padres this evening, which would probably help the pitching situation given the issues with Mark Mulder's left arm. He'll be back, so it's not a Vince Coleman-type freak injury, but bothersome nonetheless. So I say, let's do this, and sit back and watch as the Braves and Astros duke it out.

Bird Land

A few days ago IBoros pointed out to me that the local fishwrap had a new blog out, and it was unfortunatly had the same name as our humble home.

I sent an email to the blog author (Derrick Goold), trying to remain as friendly and reasonable as possible while still staking out my turf. When something like this happens the long shadows a corporate media empire throws over a humble little blog inspire the worst kind of thoughts. But Mr. Goold (Derrick from now on) answered immedietly and sincerly that far from a nefarious plot to push out the independent blogger they just hadn't found us in their due dilligence searching. Derrick was embarressed and had immedietly began searching for a new name.

And today he's found it:Bird Land. Welcome to the blogging world Derrick, hope you enjoy yourself.

It took me a few days to get that message out and in that time a number of other bloggers used various channels to communicate the same thing to Derrick. I want to say thank you all, I appreciate it a great deal.

The Answer

Thursday Mark Mulder responded emphatically to the question on everyone's mind. Mulder did his best Tommy John impression, inducing 17 outs on 13 groundballs in 6.2 innings (nice call, TSF). The ability to turn the double play seems a useful skill to have in the post-season, as you have to expect the bad guys to put some runners on base. Not to cut on Mulder, who pitched a fine game and did exactly what he was supposed to do, but the difference in defense has been the story of the series to this point. It's a pretty team to watch.

Looking at it from another level, Clay Davenport has begun something of a blog of his own at Baseball Prospectus. Without taking starting pitchers into account, using log5 I have the Cardinals at almost 95% for the LDS. That's a dangerous simplification obviously, as Game 3 starter Matt Morris is... well, Woody Williams has struggled in 2005 too, and presumably Petco helps Morris more than most.

Speaking of starters, Jason Marquis was warming after Joe Randa lined one off Mulder's arm. Evidently he had long-reliever duties. Who know what LaRussa's doing? I guess that explains how the Cardinals can suicide squeeze like they do.

To get you going

Game today (duh), and here are some links to get you started:

Fungoes Reports on tuesdays game from the outfiel with this gem:

Sitting in the outfield loge, I got to appreciate the relationship Cards' fans have with their outfielders. After their home runs, Edmonds and Reggie returned to their positions and the exchange of the fans' ovations and the players' modest acknowledgements -- Reggie clapping into his glove -- made me realize how special it must be to triumph in a boys' game and receive glory from people who pay to watch you.

Viva El Birdos has a game time open thread with 7 hours to go before gametime they've already got 7 comments.

John Rodriguez has something going on, not quite a blog, not quite a diary, a recurring sequence of columns maybe?

Dave Pinto puts sweet words in my ear::

Pedro Astacio moves into the ace role for San Diego

Cardnilly brings news that peavy might be back for this series.

And the final say goes to Alex Fritz:

Three vendor lowlights:

1. After not seeing a beer man for about half-an-hour, Roommate Matt and I wondered off to the nearest beer stand to get some suds, and had to wait through an entire inning while the dude was pouring beers for eight people. Speed up!
2. A vendor carrying 2 warm bottle of Sprite and three bags of peanuts and mumbling "soda...um...peanuts" to himself as he wandered aimlessly around Busch.
3. Jason Isringhausen. What's that? He's not a vendor? Well he sure as shit pitched like it.

Fruition

OK, Mulder, you slop-throwing Spartan (Wolverines!). This is why the Cardinals traded a decent, young and cheap starter, a decent and cheap reliever, and the next, er, Ryan Klesko for you. Think that lefty junk can work for seven innings? Maybe eight, with opposing batters going 2-for-25 against you today?

10/05/2005

Red Dawn: Cardinals Hold Off Padres to Take Game 1 -- The Hardball Times- Brian Gunn siting!
Posted by josh.schulz

Not without reason

David Pinto noticed the Super Cards Blogger Round Table and came away with:

For fans of the best team in baseball, they seem a bit worried

Followed by a comment:

I read through the entire discussion, and I agree, they seem a bit pessimistic.

To which I say: You saw last year right? Cards fans are a little gun shy that's all.

Peavy's Broken Rib

Jake Peavy broke his rib yesterday and is out for the playoffs. It's a sad blow for the Padres, whose hope rested almost entirely on Peavy being an ace in the playoffs. While technically good news for the Cards it's hard to generate an schadenfreude towards the Padres who are as inoffensive a team as there is in baseball. Plus I'd rather the Cardinals win it straight up, the better to exorcise last years debacle.

Peavy was by far the best pitcher the Padres had, and it now looks like Pedro Astacio, Woody Williams, Brian Lawrence, and Adam Eaton. Lawrence, the potential Game 5 replacement, has an ERA a full 2 runs higher than Peavy and strikes out almost half as many batters per nine.

In other news, if imitation is the highest form of flattery then I suppose we're flattered.

Open Thread: Postgame Discussion

The Cards took Game 1 of the Division Series from the Padres fairly convincingly, thanks to a Reggie Sanders grand slam and squibber off first base, and despite a near bullpen collapse. Those of us who had to work today weren't able to watch the game, but the atmosphere at Busch seemed top-notch. Today's game was somewhat reminiscent of the NLDS Game 1 last year, when the Cards beat the Dodgers on a Tueday at noon by jumping out to a large lead against the opposition's ace and watching Isringhausen struggle at the end of the game.

Thoughts?

Blog Roundtable

Here's the missing piece to last night's big Cardinals blog roundtable. Part 1 is at Viva El Birdos, part 2 is at Cardnilly, part 3 is at Bellyitcher, part 4 is at Get Up Baby, part 5 is here (sorry it took so long; like I said work's bad in October and my employer blocks access to Yahoo mail), and part 6 is at the Cardinal Diaspora.

One thing I'd like to add, which doesn't fit well in a roundtable, is a long pontification on the need for one of the starters to embrace the responsibilities held by Al Reyes until his injury. Pitching the 7th or 8th inning in a close game shouldn't be considered latrine duty, especially compared to being the #4 starter.

Ryan: is Gall in?
Rob: Sanders looked OK running to 2B today.
Rob: Gall is in.
Scott: It was windy as all hell today, so I wouldn't
read anything into that. I think Reggie's fine.
Maybe he doesn't try to steal, but I'm cool with that.
Dan Up: Stones! I think Gall could come up big
Dan Up: given the opportunity
Ryan: yeah, that's my feeling
Ryan: a PH HR
Scott: Six bench spots, yes? Mabry, JRod, Gooch,
Einar (dammit), Luna, and Gall?
Bellyscratcher: Didn't the faction worship at the
altar of Gall? They should be happy.
Rob: I want to see Rodriguez against Farnsworth.
Ryan: i think JR can produce some too
Dan Up: Einar wins the award for Guy With a Full Year
of Service Time I'm least likely to remember in three
years
Bellyscratcher: Don't knock Einar. Someone has to
love him.
Scott: I assume there is a Mrs. Einar. Or Einar
Groupies. I'm looking forward to meeting our new
backup catcher next year.
Dan Up: I actually pledged a month or so ago to stand
up and clap whenever I saw Einar get a hit
Bellyscratcher: Mahoney?
Rob: Somebody was wearing an Esteban Yan jersey the
other night. There must be Einar groupies.
Ryan: mahoney can watch from section 303
Bellyscratcher: God, Yan. (shiver)
Rob: Sorry.
Dan Up: he and Pedro Borbon occupy a special place in
my nightmares
Scott: Sadly, Pedro Borbon Jr did not make the
ceremony today...
Scott: KRob did, though.
Rob: Didn't they have a "Bad LOOGY" spot?
Ryan: you know, we've done well with worse pitching
staff. last year's starters weren't anything to
celebrate
Dan Up: Pedro I liked to watch out of morbid
curiosity, because he had the ugliest motion ever
Bellyscratcher: Ah, heckling Kerry in Portland is one
of the highlights of my summer.
Rob: KRob will be working with FSN. KRob?
Scott: He got a nice hand. I wanted him to take down
the 0 on the countdown clock.
Dan Up: do you ever wonder if he's not even sure why
he pinch hit for Mark McGwire in the NLDS?
Bellyscratcher: Ryan, they weren't, but I think we're
all looking for bigger things this year.
Scott: I heard that Simontacchi does post-game
commentary on FSN now, too. I'm glad he's getting a
paycheck, I guess.
Ryan: oh i agree wholly, but i think we have it,
Dan Up: I'm gonna miss the countdown, it was nice blog
filler
Bellyscratcher: Mac chickened out
Dan Up: Simontacchi should do commentary with Mike
Shannon, just so I can hear him say "Seemo-Man" again
Ryan: maybe they should do a countdown that goes
through the WS
Bellyscratcher: Magic number = 11
Rob: Or find some 11-legged octopi.
Dan Up: I think they should just start the new stadium
at, say, 8,000 and just go from there
Ryan: and throw them on the field
Bellyscratcher: who does 7,834?
Ryan: Towel Man
Dan Up: who else but Geronimo Pena?
Ryan: the schlub from the Blues games
Scott: We talked about Towel Man today at the game...
I really think an opportunity was missed with the
Edward Jones Rally Ringer there.
Bellyscratcher: Hey, was Walking Underwear at the
stadium today? Youneverknow.
Scott: Nope. I just assume he's on the lam.
Ryan: yeah, they must not have been able to drag him
outta Fast Eddie's Bon Air
Dan Up: hearing Rich Gould say that day after day has
made me even more tired of it than the Cheap Cheap Fun
Fun commercials
Bellyscratcher: Or another fine east side
establishment.
Ryan: ah the better you look! classy!
Bellyscratcher: How many of you are in St. Louis?
Rob: Not I.
Ryan: in exile
Scott: You guys seen the one where the Busey-lookalike
wrestles the chicken? I'm in the Lou -- I think I'm
the only one here.
Dan Up: I'm in central Illinois, so I'm in the Viewing
Area
Ryan: is that a new one!?!?
Scott: New-ish. It's not in heavy rotation.
Dan Up: whoa a busey lookalike AND the chicken? That
blows my mind. I can't concentrate on the Cardinals
any more
Ryan: did the chicken have on those nasty looking
swimsuit/underwear things
Bellyscratcher: those commercials are so scary.
Ryan: i was embarassed for the poor bastard,
Scott: Coulda been. The Busey-alike is an amateur
wrestler at the South Broadway Athletic Club.
Ryan: how much cheap cheap fun fun did they have to
give him to do the ad i wonder
Dan Up: he was superstitious out of his mind by the
time the chicken put the figure-four leglock on him
Ryan: a sleeper hold gone terribly, terribly wrong
Scott: I dunno -- my guess is that a majority of his
fans at the SBAC are Dirt Cheap clients, so this was
really more about building his brand...
Bellyscratcher: Ok, next question. For those in
exile, who's going back for the playoffs?
Dan Up: I'll be going to a few games
Dan Up: but I can't go to elimination games, I'd be
catatonic
Ryan: man, that's a tough question. my father in law
is getting playoff tix from the bud distributor in
Leabonon MO
Scott: Man, if you don't go to elimination games, you
don't get to see the Cards win elimination games.
Best moment of my life as a fan was Jimmy in Game 6.
Dan Up: yeah I can't believe I missed it
Dan Up: in hindsight, of course
Bellyscratcher: There won't be elimination games.
Sweeps all the way through!
Rob: Work is always tough for me in October. I'm going
to have enough trouble seeing Tuesday's game on TV.
Dan Up: that's what I like, the Moses Malone plan
Scott: Game 4 of the WS is at home...
Ryan: oh, i've already laid the groundwork for some
work skippage
Dan Up: fo' fo' fo'
Bellyscratcher: I'm thinking I'm calling in sick on
Tuesday
Scott: Yeah, okay -- what's the deal with the noon
start time? 'Tis crap, I say.
Bellyscratcher: 10 fucking am for me
Rob: I hate the Yankees and Red SOx.
Ryan: yeah, east coast bias
Scott: Yeah, how much does that screw the fans in SD?
Ryan: it's a real shame, because the ALCS will get
good prime time all the way through. mark my words
Scott: I don't mind that NYY/LA is the primo game,
since those are ginormous markets, but, seriously...
Bellyscratcher: Fans in SD? Better than ATL, I guess.
Scott: Dood. Dex is gonna kick your ass...
Bellyscratcher: Eh, let him buy $3.50 gas to come up
and try ;-)
Dan Up: yeah all I know is that whoever comes out of
the NLCS had better beat the AL team
Scott: I had a good experience down in SD when I
visited last year. PETCO's a nice park, and the fans
seemed into it...
Dan Up: so I don't have to hear about it from ESPN
over the next six months
Rob: That's why I live in an ESPN-free household.
Scott: Tuesday's game is on ESPN, I think.
Ryan: yeah, i hope Boston is out first round too so
Gammons is pissed off at the world
Bellyscratcher: Gammons likes the Cards...
Ryan: but he HEARTS the Sawx
Dan Up: I just hope Boston is out because I hate them
with an undying passion
Bellyscratcher: Yeah. It's Harold I can't stand.
Ryan: really, how does a $130 million payroll make you
an underdog?
Dan Up: and I can imagine Jimmy Fallon and Drew
Barrymore breaking up over it in that stupid movie
Scott: Harold, when apart from Kruk, is pretty okay.
There never was a movie called Fever Pitch. I refuse
to acknowledge it.
Scott: (The book, on the other hand, is great.)
Bellyscratcher: Book and original movie.

The Rotation

This post is dedicated to all the poor men and women who suffered through last night's game.

If there's one thing I've learned about stats over the last couple of years, it's that you don't limit yourself to the last month or even last season of stats. Most people will agree that Tony Womack wasn't as good as his numbers in 2004, for example. So here's a quick summary of how prior seasons' stats were interpreted by ZiPS and PECOTA for 2005 purposes:

Pitcher    ERA   Z-ERA   P-ERA
Carpenter 2.83    3.81    3.91
Marquis   4.03    4.28    4.38
Morris    3.94    4.13    4.21
Mulder    3.64    3.63    3.78
Suppan    3.57    4.52    4.28

That's some impressive over-achievement. Anyway, between this little table and all of Jeff Suppan's unearned runs, I won't lose sleep at the latest developments regarding the playoff rotation. What concerns me more is the appearance of flip-flopping. While LaRussa's job is to win games, not explain how they're going to win games, I don't see a thorough method to decision-making here.