Doldrums

I obviously don't have a lot to say right now. I'd like to claim I've been too busy, which is sorta true, but I've also been traveling and I've had time to think about the roster and, well, there isn't a lot to say. Since the Cardinals roster stands right now as follows:

Rotation: Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, Ponson
Bullpen: Isringhausen, Rincon, Flores, Thompson, Looper, Mateo, Reyes/FRodriguez/HoHum
Lineup: Molina, Pujols, Spivey, Eckstein, Rolen, Bigbie, Edmonds, Encarnacion
Bench: Bennett, Cruz, Miles/Luna, JRodriguez, Taguchi

Aside from the last reliever, that looks like a finished roster. The Cardinals don't have much to trade that could upgrade that group and the need for depth, particularly for pitching, serves as a disincentive for a trade anyway. I won't speculate on rumors and the like, since I expect little, if any, movement from the Cardinals. Now the next logical step would be to project the group, but unfortunately my favorite projection engine seems to have been derailed. I have some thoughts unrelated to the offseason maneuvers, but I'm not ready to go off in another direction. So I'm stuck in a holding pattern.

OK, here's one little thing, perhaps related to Dan Szymborski's delay. Consider these free agent signings:

Jeremy Burnitz 2 years, $12 million
Juan Encarnacion 3 years, $15 million
Jacque Jones 3 years, $16 million (plus a draft pick)
Reggie Sanders 2 years, $10 million

Sanders would easily be the best of the bunch were it not for durability issues. Otherwise they're relatively similar players, corner outfielders with decent power but not so good on-base skills. Each generally was panned by the fans of the acquiring teams (maybe not the Royals fans, but they seem to have given up). The contracts are pretty similar, especially when you take age into account. Teams seem to have treated these four like largely interchangeable VORP commodities. If that's the case, then it gets a lot harder to find bargains. Teams may well have caught up with Baseball Prospectus, just the commodity is more expensive than any outsider realized.

It Was A Good Read

The Birdhouse has/had a three-part chat with Jeff Luhnow, Cardinals VP for Baseball Development. Luhnow's a sharp guy and a good interview, and he also knows how to project a good image to us Internet jackasses. The articles left me, and most others I suspect, with the feeling that the front office knows what it's doing. The articles aren't free any longer, but there are worse ways to spend your Christmas money. Some talking points:

• The Cardinals are investing decent chunks of change in the farm system, particularly in Latin America. After reading the Post-Dispatch's series, this was a "no duh, Sherlock" item. The big point is that they seem to be following Napoleon's advice: If you're going to take Venezuela, then take Venezuela. Talent pipeline, trading chips, organizational depth, yadda yadda yadda. We can see where the post-Edmonds Cardinals are headed.

• They're getting more scientific about pitcher mechanics. The Cardinals' #1 pick in 1999 -- the Pujols draft -- didn't pitch in 2005, in large part because of injuries. The Cardinals #1-rated prospect from the 2004 Baseball America has pitched 25 innings the last two seasons. You get the idea.

• The stat guys have a voice. You know about MGL and his defense metric UZR. They also have Sig Mejdal, a (former?) NASA biomathematician. While I'm not sure what a biomathematician does, based on his work in the last two Bill James Handbooks, Mejdal comes off as Will Carroll with numbers aptitude instead of networking skills. These guys aren't amateurs.

The interview is reassuring, even if it's PR-work as the Cardinals seem headed in the right direction. Luhnow's asking good questions and finding good answers.

* * *

With that in mind, I'd feel even sillier than normal if I skewered the Juan Encarnacion acquisition. MGL's given the deal his stamp of approval, and if you're using OPS and defensive Win Shares to argue with him, then you're taking knives to a gun fight. Even discounting the UZRs, Encarnacion looks to me to be the Cardinals' second-best outfielder in 2006. The team is stronger on paper and I don't see how else they could've spent the money, so I'm not complaining anyway. I am surprised at how keen ZiPs is on Encarnacion, even if its creator isn't so sanguine. Evidently the Marlins play in a park that kills batting average.

Some secondary consequences of the Encarnacion and Spivey moves:

• Rick Ankiel's fate seems sealed. Not that he had much of a shot at the major league roster, but it's hard to see him beating Rodriguez or Taguchi for one of the final outfield spots, and it's hard to see the Cardinals going with fewer than four middle infielders or twelve pitchers. Ankiel needs hundreds upon hundreds of at-bats anyway.

• The Cardinals have three outfielders, plus Edmonds, who can man center competently. I suppose this flexibility allows for the unthinkable, an Edmonds trade. Assuming he stays, Edmonds might want to get into the habit of packing his first baseman's mitt, since he's the apparent backup to Pujols.

• Luna should take Spivey's signing as a kick in the pants. Luna's not guaranteed a roster spot as Miles can bat left-handed, something none of the other middle infielders can do, and there isn't much need for a backup shortstop with Cruz around. I don't know what happened to Luna at Memphis (224 / 294 / 332 in 223 at-bats), but if he's a pouter, then he could find himself unemployed a year from now.

• The right side of the Cardinals infield looks to be Bert and Ernie. What did Juan Encarnacion's ancestor do to get a surname that means Incarnation?

Pictures of Old Busch

Theres a flickr pool of pictures of Busch, anybody whose got some pictures should stop by and add them in. And if you don't have a flickr account... Wow... you have the whole world ahead of you.

thanks to Shoo for pointing it out in comments.

Pairwise Dependent

Lost in the Ponson news, Bo Hart and Scott Seabol were non-tendered late Tuesday. It seems sadly appropriate that they left at the same time, both having provided some great memories at first, but neither hit major league pitching thereafter. I'm not sure why I get fixated on these fringe players. Maybe it's the fact that their bank accounts aren't any bigger than mine while for no obvious reason Einar Diaz is taking money baths. That's not quite it, so maybe they're the symbolic Everyman and I get a chance to play with Albert Pujols by proxy. Of course there's always the underdog factor, and to borrow from college basketball, I presume Princeton's players remember their 1996 upset of UCLA more than the subsequent beating they took from, uh, Mississippi or Mississippi State. Maybe this duo will have another chapter, like Valpo did in 1998, but if they don't, nobody can take away that month in 2003 from Bo Hart or take the curtain call from Scott Seabol (somebody from the Cardinals should get a hold of the Associated Press and send a framed blow-up of that picture to Seabol for Christmas). And the medical benefits, they can't take those either. Good luck, guys.

It's going to take a minute, but the next bit has an obvious connection.

I've been reading about the 1934 Cardinals, who had Ripper Collins at first base. Collins started with the Cardinals in 1931 as a 27-year old rookie, after spending eight seasons in the minors. Ripper was so named because they thought he ripped at the ball (duh). As I was reading this, the light bulb went on, "Hey, that's John Rodriguez!" Seeing as LaRussa doesn't like the J-Rod nickname, and the whole First Initial-dash-Rod market is saturated, I hereby nominate "Ripper" as Rodriguez's nickname.

My final pairing is Larry Bigbie and Jacque Jones. While I'll promise to wear a sign that says "Jackass With A Computer" if it will make him better, I'm worried jackasses with radar guns are over-rating Bigbie. This isn't some kid one year removed from juco. With all the caveats about player stats, 28 year-old corner outfielders with career 92 OPS+'s don't become good ballplayers regularly. There's the additional concern that Bigbie's actually JD Drew Lite. (Good grief, the Orioles reported him stubbing his toe in 2004? Couldn't they have made up something?) In addition to the major league injuries, he also spent a month-and-a-half on the DL in 2000 and three weeks on the DL in 2002.

Reasonable people can disagree, but I think Jacque Jones is a better ballplayer than Larry Bigbie plus whoever will have to play if Bigbie goes to the DL, especially if Jones sits some against left-handed pitching. Even if I'm wrong about Bigbie v. Jones -- and I'll wear the "Jackass" sign if I am -- I still can compare Jones to TagRod. I think the difference is clear, though not dramatic, which makes me wonder why Cardinals fans are so happy and Cubs fans are so sad. I suppose there may have been some unrealistic fears/dreams of, say, Bobby Abreu in Wrigley or maybe there were hopes Felix Pie would be ready. Otherwise the Cubs seem to have improved themselves by a couple of games from Monday and, assuming the Cardinals don't sign somebody like Juan Encarnacion, they look like they'll be a game or two worse off.

The Fat Man Cometh

This afternoon, the Cardinals announced the signing of Mr. International Criminal Record, Sir Sidney Ponson. In a related story, Anheuser-Busch's stock immediately shot up 50%.

In all seriousness, however, this has at least a little bit of potential to be a decent move. If Ponson gives up the booze and settles down for a while, if he doesn't suck as gloriously as he has the past two seasons (he's only 29, he shouldn't be regressing), and if the undisclosed terms he signed for are around a tenth of what the Orioles were supposed to pay him this season, he might actually be a decent pickup who could eat some innings in a Suppan-esque fashion. And Duncan's history with castoffs hasn't been too bad. Unfortunately, that's a lot of ifs. Not to mention the fact that His Largeness will be blocking Reyes' and/or Wainwright's clear path to the bigs for another year. So at this point, the negatives outweigh the positives... but it's not a completely useless signing.

No Wonder

I've just found out why the Cardinals can't finish the job in the post-season: The cheapskate owners won't give their starting pitchers bulldozers.

Hat tip to Bob Timmermann, who's got a funny blog.

On to Felix Rodriguez and the non-tenders...

Zumsteg v. Bissinger

Derek Zumsteg over at USS Mariner just got to reading Buzz Bissinger's book Three Nights in August. Zumsteg doesn't like the preface, and I don't blame him. But in case you haven't read it yet, Bissinger's book really isn't about Moneyball or about how awful it is that the game's being taken over by twentysomethings with laptops, and this one gratuitous insult is the exception. The book's a portrait of LaRussa and the recent Cardinals, and as such it's much more valuable than these oft-quoted lines might lead you to believe.

You Load Sixteen Tons And What Do You Get?

With Sidney Ponson and Kirk Rueter rumors floating around, I wanted to do something besides think about potential additions to the 2006 roster. There's just not an appropriate response to the prospects of a Cardinal pitcher coming off a 0.53 K/BB last year. Dan of GUB kinda beat me to another potential topic, how Cardinals are faring in winter ball. I suppose I can add that Yadier Molina's hacked his way to a 830 OPS while DH-ing and we may get some practice for the "Free Johnny Rodriguez" campaign. Omar Olivares is still pitching evidently.

One other possible topic is the commemoration of the first anniversary of the Mulder trade. I didn't want to re-hash what was said a year ago. Or at least that would be the plan.

My original goal was to say nice things about Mark Mulder, maybe even predict that he'd be the best Cardinals pitcher in 2006. To re-hash a bit, the Cardinals should've been going for the brass ring in 2005, and there wasn't much else to do besides find a Game 2 starter. Go back and look at those strikeout to walk ratios from 2001 to 2003 and the Adjusted ERA+'s. This was a very good pitcher and last winter when he was looking for that Game 2 starter, Jocketty couldn't have done much better. As it turns out, Mulder pitched well in the post-season even with a case of the yips in the elimination game. Roy Oswalt just happened to pitch better.

Like I said, the original goal was to say nice things. You see, at the end of business on July 3rd, Mulder had a 4.63 ERA in 107 innings. For the remainder of the season he had a 2.57 ERA and that's not just an arbitrary endpoint either. OK, maybe it is, but right at that time Duncan was waving videotape around and saying he could solve Mulder's problems while Mulder was saying he hadn't been listening but now would. The thing is, I shot down my own theory about Mulder and Duncan with a little more research. It turns out Mulder had a 45/37 K/BB during that pretty ERA stretch, and if you looked at those old K/BB's you know that isn't the old Mulder. Mulder has become more of a groundball pitcher, but even in an ideal world that's trading a Porsche for a Buick.

Now I'm back to square one, a nattering nabob of negativity once again. Actually I'd say that it's worse than it was a year ago, as the Cardinals have had time to "fix" Mulder and didn't in all likelihood. Further, the Cardinals are likely to think they did fix him, much as thought they fixed Jeff Fassero in 2002. Then there's the fact that Mulder's numbers should've improved when moving to the National League. What the hell happened to him?

I do have one friendlier take on the trade, even though it's old news to some. Daric Barton continued to hit, posting 900 OPSs at both high-A and AA. His power came down from a year ago, so the debate now seems to be whether he'll be John Olerud or non-Petco Brian Giles. Either way he looks like a major league regular, answering the general question about position prospects in positive fashion. The specific question for him -- does he have a defensive position -- isn't going so well. His defense at 1B hasn't drawn rave reviews and more relevant to our cause, the A's have barely tried at him in the outfield. In fact, in the two months he spent at AA, this is the only game I could find where he played in the outfield and that's because it was "Cardinal What-Ifs in Right Field Night". With Barton's physique, as an outfielder he would've been a deluxe version of Craig Wilson -- they graduated from the same high school! -- and thus much as it pains me to say it, the Cardinals were going to have to trade Barton eventually.

That's my nice thing, that Barton was going to be traded. While it may not sound like much, I was a charter member of the Daric Barton Fan Club. I've been forced to give up my grand hypothetical of Barton picking up the slack as Edmonds started to go into the sunset. Granted that the Cardinals would've traded him at some future date, the Cardinals would've been better off trading Barton for Jeff Brantley, keeping Haren and Calero.

* * *

I really didn't mean go down that path, and I feel especially silly focusing on the negatives for a franchise coming off consecutive 100-win seasons. So how about exploring a different facet of Jocketty's work? The consensus on Jocketty has been that he's a good trader and not-so-good in the free agent market. But look at how free agent and trade acquisitions have matched-up the last two years:

(1) Chris Carpenter is the best free agent pickup in Cardinals history. Mark Mulder could end up like Ernie Broglio. Score a big one for the free agents.

(2) The Cardinals traded JD Drew for Jason Marquis, Ray King and Adam Wainwright. About the same time, they acquired free agents Jeff Suppan, who matches Marquis nicely, and Julian Tavarez, who matched Ray King nicely. It's too early to call Wainwright a bust and King was flipped (that will give Jocketty a bad back) for potentially useful players, but with Drew having an MVP-caliber campaign in 2004, the free agent moves are at worst a tie with the trades.

(3) Larry Walker was acquired via trade and Reggie Sanders was acquired via free agency. They're about the same age and they even car-pooled together. While both had their post-season struggles, Walker did contribute a little more. His salary was a little higher than Sanders' though. The Cardinals picked the main chip in the Walker trade, Chris Narveson, off the waiver wire. It's close, but I'll give the edge to the trades here.

(4) Tony Womack was acquired via a bargain basement trade and Mark Grudzielanek was a bargain basement free agent acquistion. Womack's miraculous offensive advantage probably doesn't match Grudz's defensive edge, but I'll call it a push.

(5) John Rodriguez was a minor league trade that's worked well and Al Reyes was a minor league free agent pickup that worked even better, at least to this point. Call that one a tie on potential, although it's too early to tell.

(6) David Eckstein was signed as a free agent. There really isn't anything to match with him, as there were many more free agent deals than trades. Eckstein would have to fall off one of those diving cliffs in Mexico for this not to be a plus. We start getting into the roster filler moves, like Roger Cedeño, Einar Diaz, Marlon Anderson and John Mabry. Everybody has to do that though and those guys are almost by definition not very good. Technically Matt Morris and So Taguchi were free agent acquisitions, but for all practical purposes they were extensions, so let's not consider them either.

Tallying it up, it seems Jocketty regressed to the mean as a trader and excelled in the free agent market. One way to explain the Cardinals' ascendancy from good in 2000-2002 to great in 2004-2005 is that Jocketty, with many of his good trades still in the bag, got the hang of free agency.

Alan Benes

Alan Benes comes back to the Cardinals

RHP Alan Benes , 33, has been signed to a minor league contract. Benes, a promising pitcher for the Cardinals in the late 1990s, has been trying to battle back after having had several shoulder surgeries.

Do the cardinals just reflexivly sign anybody named Benes? He hasn't thrown more than 50 innings at the major league level since 1997 and this is comeback 3. It worked out last time, and Tony probably owes it too him to give him a steady paycheck (even a minor league one) for a while.

Found this via The only blog celebrating the inevitable St. Louis Cardinals 2006 World Series Championship so far. Now that we know where the bandwagon is though, it'll be easier to jump on.

Mr. Looper

The Cardinals just overpaid for a Grade-B reliever. Two big thoughts: Crazy market yadda yadda yadda and a 5xx OPS against right-handed batters.

When Jeff Luhnow went to Brian Gunn and asked him how much Renteria was worth, my response was more or less "Why are you asking this guy, a smart guy but an amateur, when you've got a top-notch number cruncher of your own? Is this some sort of ploy to find what you're supposed to say to Cardinals fans about your best offer when Renteria goes off to Boston?" I'm pretty jaded about this whole PR thing, especially when it comes to money. So when the Cardinals brass was making the local talk radio tour to assure us that all is well, I shrugged. Talk is cheap and all that.

That said, the Cardinals are trying to spend their money, and they're willing to stretch their definition of "reasonable" to build a better team. For example, with their starting rotation already in place, AJ Burnett didn't make much sense and the deal they offered him made even less sense. The theory was that Marquis would be traded for an outfielder, but as Aaron Gleeman pointed out, there isn't a whole lot of market for mediocre pitchers one year away from free agency. The bigger point was improving the rotation, which honestly didn't need a lot of improving. There aren't any outfielders available and the Cardinals seem to have decided Hector Luna will be their starting 2B, although they also seem reluctant to admit that. There just aren't a whole lot of ways to spend money. So let them fling it at a good not great reliever.

Yes, Looper is a good pitcher. You'll hear and read this more than you stand, but it does bear repeating: Looper's hell on right-handed batters. He turns average RHBs into Neifi Perez. Lord knows that Tony LaRussa will use Looper properly and it was nice of the Cardinals to give word before Christmas, because we'll want to have TiVos ready for the 7th and 8th innings.

The Cardinals bullpen presently sits like this: Izzy, Looper, Thompson, Mateo, Flores and Rincon. The Cardinals probably will go with a seven-man pen as they have most of the last five years. Since Looper shouldn't face lefties, that final spot could go to Tyler Johnson, but that will expose Mateo more than anybody would be comfortable. It also leaves the Cardinals pretty thin in the event of the inevitable injury, so picking up another reliever out there makes some sense. We back-seat GMs want a cheap one who's good rather than a big name, but all else equal, I'd rather the Cardinals spend their money than smugly sit on it.

A Stats Dump

Before the stats dump, I have a true story to tell. I was visiting my mom over the weekend and got to watch her feed the birds. She puts out peanuts, and she does it often enough that birds swoop down and take all the nuts within a few minutes. Then I noticed all the swooping birds were blue jays, and when I mentioned that to my mom, she said "Yeah. The blue jays take most of them. Occasionally a cardinal will sneak in and get one." I thought I was safe at my mom's.

Here are a few projections courtesy the 2006 Bill James Handbook, all projections for the player's last team. Seven guys who won't be Cardinals:

Milton Bradley     267 / 352 / 430 (sorry, Fitz)
Luis Castillo      304 / 385 / 370
Mark Loretta       299 / 369 / 400
AJ Burnett         3.46 ERA
Kiko Calero        2.99 ERA
Ray King           3.48 ERA
Matt Morris        3.82 ERA

Seven guys who will be Cardinals:

Larry Bigbie       263 / 333 / 391
Hector Luna        254 / 320 / 351
Aaron Miles        300 / 335 / 403
John Rodriguez     248 / 323 / 453
Chris Carpenter    3.74 ERA
Jason Marquis      4.43 ERA  (3.43 ERA without curveball)
Ricardo Rincon     3.72 ERA

Yes, the Cardinals traded for a corner outfielder Bill James thinks would've slugged .391 playing half his games at Coors. Maybe it really is that bad. The computers didn't show a lot of love for Carpenter a year ago either. Seven guys who are still on the fence:

Chris Denorfia     301 / 367 / 490 see here
Juan Encarnacion   265 / 323 / 430
D'Angelo Jimenez   261 / 356 / 376
Craig Monroe       283 / 335 / 469
Kevin Millwood     3.60 ERA
Felix Rodriguez    3.80 ERA
Jarrod Washburn    3.96 ERA

If D'Angelo Jimenez makes that projection, I'll buy Ray King a lifetime supply of hamburgers. The Reds still have an outfield quandary, although I assume Denorfia starts the season at Louisville.

How Bad Is It Really?

As I soon as I say the Morris news was good news, I read that MattyMo has kicked the Cardinals off the island. It's been that kind of offseason. I presume Rick Hummel got this from the horse's mouth and not a rumors site, so I'll offer best wishes to Morris. The same article promises that Ricardo Rincon will be joining the Cardinals shortly. Rincon's peripherals have gone into the toilet the last couple of years, but if John Hart ever takes over the Padres franchise, we could get Brian Giles for him.

Bernie Miklasz piled on. It's a bit unfair to blame the owners for the team's shortcomings four months before the next season's even started, but the signals are discouraging. With a new stadium going up, hardcore fans should be concerned that the Cardinals intend to move from a "great product/decent venue" model to a "decent product/great venue" model. One thing Miklasz could've added is that revenue sharing reflects spending on new stadia, which is to say the other 29 baseball owners effectively are paying part of the Busch III bill. Neil deMause has the details.

As if anticipating Miklasz's comments, Jocketty evidently had a press conference. "You'd like to think we've earned the benefit of the doubt," Jocketty says. On a more practical level, Jocketty's hinting that Luna will be the starting 2B in 2006. The way the Cardinals have handled 2B the previous two seasons and look to be handling it in 2006 got me thinking about something Chris Dial wrote three years ago. He found the difference between an average 2B and a replacement level 2B was pretty thin, and as he put it in the comments to his study, "Second base is probably the most over-paid position in baseball."

My final link, and a segue to some actual content, comes from Alan Schwarz at the New York Times. Says Mr. Schwarz:

Gardenhire’s optimism, not uncommon among managers and players, is rarely shared by the more statistically trained executives actually swinging these deals. Despite all the hype that trades and free-agent signings receive during December, individual signings, even astute ones, usually portend fewer victories than many people expect.

The converse is that players lost aren't as important as us whiners believe. So the question comes up, just how much have defections and trades hurt to this point? Well, let's crunch some numbers.

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cardinals as a whole were 70.3 wins above replacement level in 2006. They lost the following players, their WARP1s, their batting outs and their innings pitched:

ROGER CEDENO       -0.8   51    0.0
EINAR DIAZ          0.2  105    0.0
CAL ELDRED          1.2    2   37.0
MARK GRUDZIELANEK   4.0  381    0.0
KEVIN JARVIS       -0.3    0    3.3
JIMMY JOURNELL     -0.4    0    4.3
RAY KING            1.8    0   40.0
JOHN MABRY          0.6  195    0.0
MATT MORRIS         2.7   60  192.7
ABRAHAM NUNEZ       2.4  311    0.0
BILL PULSIPHER      0.0    0    4.0
AL REYES            3.3    2   62.7
REGGIE SANDERS      3.5  218    0.0
JULIAN TAVAREZ      2.0    1   65.7
LARRY WALKER        3.3  227    0.0
GABE WHITE          0.2    0    8.3
TOTAL              23.7 1553  418.0

On the naive assumption that we can carry 2005 results directly to 2006, the Cardinals have lost about 24 wins from the 2005 team, so in my little rollforward they're presently sitting at 76+ wins. Of course we need to add some people on and give some returning players more playing time to make up those 1500 outs and 400 innings. I'll make some guesses at WARP1s, outs and innings:

GARY BENNETT      +0.3  +105   +0.0
LARRY BIGBIE      +2.5  +320   +0.0
DEIVI CRUZ        +1.8  +300   +0.0
HECTOR LUNA       +2.2  +240   +0.0
JUAN MATEO        +1.1    +0  +50.0
AARON MILES       +0.5  +100   +0.0
ANTHONY REYES     +2.2   +55 +180.0
RICARDO RINCON    +1.7    +0  +45.0
JOHN RODRIGUEZ    +1.5  +100   +0.0
ADAM WAINWRIGHT   +1.1    +5  +50.0
NON ENTITIES      +0.0  +325  +95.0
TOTAL            +14.9 +1550 +420.0  

Playing time for Bennett, Bigbie and Cruz is basically determined by Einar, the 2005 outfielders and Nuñez. Their WARPs are then pro-rated according to career WARP per career outs. Miles used a similar pro-rata, but his projected playing time is roughly what Luna got in 2005. Luna's extra playing time is supposed to put him close to Grudzielanek, give or take, and I've assumed he'll match his career WARP per career out ratio. Reyes is supposed to match Morris, for better and for worse. I've guessed Wainwright and Mateo would be half a Suppan, which isn't as hard as it sounds, since Suppan gave up a bunch of unearned runs. Wainwright and Mateo (who's well-liked by ZiPS BTW) more or less form a proxy for whatever mediocre pitching the Cardinals add. Rodriguez got pro-rated to a larger role versus 2005, which admittedly is something of a guess.

You can see the various problems with these assumptions, but I don't see anything here grotesquely unreasonable. This isn't exactly a team in freefall. At 91 or so wins, they're probably the best team in the NL Central by a few games, and that's before any possible fine-tuning with the bullpen or in the outfield and before considering what a healthy Scott Rolen should add.

Good News?

I left one piece of news out yesterday, primarily because I can't decide if it's good or bad. The Cardinals offered arbitration to Matt Morris and apparently are negotiating with him still. Steve Lyons said during the post-season that he expected Morris to return, which I had chalked up to "dumb national announcer doesn't know local turf", but then again, unlike me, he presumably had discussed the matter with Morris. I'm torn, as there are pros and cons, and I can't decide which weigh more.

On the pro side, I attribute Morris's second-half struggles to fatigue related to his shoulder surgery and a premature return. Give him some rest and he'll be fine. With the pitching market being what it is and with Mulder, Suppan and Marquis presently due for free agency after the 2006 season, I'd argue that the 2007 pitching gap is the most important need this offseason, and Morris would help solve that problem. On the con side, there's the obvious possibility that the second-half Morris is what we'll get. To make matters worse, Tony LaRussa and Matt Morris seem to have some co-dependency issues, Morris always wanting to take the ball even when he's ailing and LaRussa always wanting to give him the ball even when Morris is hurting the team.

Like I said, I can't decide if this is a good or bad development. I suppose sentiment can break the tie, and I for one will call it marginally good.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Cardinals added Juan Mateo via the Rule 5 draft. Dan of GUB broke the numbers down well enough, so I went looking for the non-number stuff. The first source is the Baseball America 2005 Prospect Handbook (that's last year's as this year's isn't out yet), which has nothing on him, and I mean nothing. Mateo wasn't in their Top Thirty for the Cubs and he wasn't on BA's pitching depth charts, which dig even further. Actually BA called him "Juan Matos" in their Rule 5 writeup, which isn't good on two counts. Bleed Cubbie Blue was so distraught that they discussed Wrigley's renovation instead. MiLB.com had this though:

"He's got a good arm," said John Vuch, the Cards' assistant director of player development. "His fastball [90-93] is his best pitch. He has a good changeup and a slider that's inconsistent. That's the one thing we'd like to see, consistency on his slider. He shows it at times. He's shown good command, has a good arm but also has an idea how to pitch."

That doesn't sound Santana-class promising, although it also sounds like Mateo won't make a fool of himself. Seeing as the Cardinals should have five solid starters (and a solid defense backing them in what looks to be a pitchers park) in 2006, they don't have a burning need for seven relievers. The Cardinals must think Mateo's got some talent, which makes this a smart use of that final bullpen slot. I'd rather be babbling about Brian Giles, but this is also a bit of good news.

Ugh

This story at the Post-Dispatch is painful.

Ray King is gone. In spite of King's poor 2005 campaign, I don't see why he couldn't have returned to his career norms. He criticized LaRussa though, which means he's been sentenced to a year in Pitcher Hell. I'm not sold on Tyler Johnson's improved walk rate, so I'd rather have seen him start the season in Memphis.

Presently the bullpen has the oft-injured Isringhausen, Thompson, the rehabbing Flores and Johnson maybe. Wow, that's thin, no joke about King intended. We'll see if the just-in-time compiler is working. This is where Kiko Calero would look good.

Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles were the net for King. Bigbie played one game at Frederick in 2004 and I happened to be there. He homered twice, which isn't quite as good as my Austin Kearns game. Other than that, this is one of those players that people have decided is a legit major leaguer for reasons unknown. Unless he's the Ozzie Smith of left fielders, then this isn't much of a gain.

Aaron Miles is awful. He's proof that you can make it to the majors even if you repeat at three different levels of the minors. This would be a terrible plan for 2B, especially with Mark Loretta getting swapped for a backup catcher and Luis Castillo being sold for a couple of middling prospects; more on that below. Miles should start the season at Memphis, but...

Mark Grudzielanek, per his contract, wasn't offered arbitration. He's a hacker and he's aging. Even with good defense it's hard to get worked-up over this loss. It's another option that gets crossed-off the list though, and while a couple of 2Bs could shake loose when arb-eligibles are non-tendered, the Miles news makes the middle infield uncomfortably crowded. The 40-man roster includes Miles, Hector Luna, Deivi Cruz, Bo Hart, Brendan Ryan and Travis Hanson. Unless the Cardinals plan on stockpiling middle infielders they have no intention of using, Jocketty may consider his work done at 2B. The only good spin for this is that Bret "One T" Boone is less likely to be a Cardinal.

Then you have your doomsday scenarios... oh, dear... with all those middle infielders, LaRussa's liable to play Miles in the outfield some. If he does that, then my head may explode.

The Cardinals didn't offer arbitration to Reggie Sanders or Julian Tavarez either. While neither is a complete surprise, it couldn't be worse news. Holes not filled and draft picks not gained.

Two incredibly bad quotes:

La Russa underscored Wednesday that economic realities make it likely So Taguchi will go to spring training as a projected starter.

Just a reminder, So Taguchi will be 36 next year. And there's this...

Interest in Millwood comes amid ownership's adherence to a "hard cap" that provides no more than $2 million and one season to the club's next starting second baseman.

Who the heck puts a "hard cap" on a single position? Is this arbitrary line-drawing the reason that Loretta and Castillo won't be in St. Louis next year? The Cardinals apparently have decided they needed to make the NL Central more of a challenge, and so they'll be painting themselves into corners all offseason. They keep talking about a $90+ million payroll, and while we're still only in early December, where's all this other money going?

The Cardinals are returning the core of a team coming off consecutive 100-win seasons. Ergo, I refuse to panic. That said, could the offseason have unfolded any worse than this?

In Other News

Baseball America officially announced their top ten Cardinals prospects today, and much to everyone's surprise, AJ Burnett wasn't on the list. Actually the list goes as follows:

1. Anthony Reyes, rhp
2. Colby Rasmus, of
3. Tyler Greene, ss
4. Chris Lambert, rhp
5. Mark McCormick, rhp
6. Adam Wainwright, rhp
7. Travis Hanson, 3b
8. Cody Haerther, of
9. Nick Webber, rhp
10. Stuart Pomeranz, rhp

That's just as Derek Goold had promised a week earlier. Goold got the headline right, that this list is dominated by 2005 draftees, which isn't a complete surprise, as the Cardinals had one of the worst farm systems in baseball and they had five high draft picks thanks to the departures of Renteria and Matheny. (Such was the 2005 season, that today I had forgotten that Renteria left prior to the year and I had assumed the picks were compensation for Woody Williams. Now that I think about it some more, this thing with Burnett is a lot like the back-n-forth with Renteria.)

The other matter that got my attention was Cody Haerther's ranking. I've been holding out hope that Haerther could be a decent starting outfielder for the Cardinals in 2007. But last year BA had him stuck behind Chris Duncan, who was coming off a career year at AA after some disappointing prior work. This year Haerther is behind Travis Hanson, who had a career year at AA at the age of 24 after some middling work of his own. While I doubt BA agonizes over their list the same way Cardinals fans are agonizing over Burnett's itinerary, evidently someone doesn't share my enthusiasm for Haerther. The Cardinals have a few holes to fill on the major league roster, and like most teams they tend to keep the really good ones, so I guess we'll find out what the brass really thinks in the coming weeks.

The BA link also lists "Best Tools" for Cardinals farm hands. Anthony Reyes rates well, as expected, and shockingly Rick Ankiel has the best outfield arm. Skip Schumaker rates as best defensive outfielder; if he can hit like Kerry Robinson, which isn't exactly a high standard, then he's got some value.

In other news, the Cardinals have added Gary Bennett and Deivi Cruz. It seems the Cardinals' first signing every offseason is their backup catcher, be it Mike Difelice, Joe Girardi, Chris Widger or Einar Diaz. Viva El Birdos suggested Bennett a while back, and I thought he was nuts as Albert Pujols, who's kinda important, once punched Bennett in the face. At least it's not Gary Barnett of the Colorado Buffaloes. Cruz evidently is supposed to be this year's Abraham Nuñez. Cruz probably won't be appearing on any Moneyball list any time soon.

Now, as for JD, uh, AJ Burnett, I'm at a loss for why Cardinals fans are in a lather over the guy. Yeah, I know, Burnett's got a 95-mph fastball, a good curve and a good changeup. I was silly enough to watch him on mlb.tv over the weekend to see it for myself. He also walks too many, he's an injury risk, he's got documented attitude issues and it looks like Jocketty had to give him a five-year deal. OK, it would be funny if Burnett said that the Cardinals lost in the NLCS because they played scared under their negative manager. I don't think that would've gone over well with LaRussa though.

This isn't some kid. Burnett's been in the majors since 1999 and has been a professional ballplayer for over ten years now. If at that point they're still talking about potential, then something's not quite right. The Blue Jays can have him.

Giles Signs Elsewhere

Giles signed with the Padres, reportedly for 3 years, $30 million. Wow, those Baseball Analyst guys are good.