Diamond Mind Projections

The traditional end to a stathead's pre-season has arrived, as probably the best projections of the bunch are up at Diamond Mind. It's sameole sameole, with the Cardinals heavy favorites to win the NL Central and having a 90% shot at the the post-season. The Cards are projected to lead the league in run prevention and (barely) finish second behind the Bonds-fueled Giants in runs scored. Not bad for all the angst.

For what it's worth, DM had the Cardinals winning 103 in 2005 and winning the NL Central in 2004. Even if you don't buy this stuff, the methodology is an interesting read. The line about managers is particularly funny:

In other words, we don't give a team a few extra wins because they have a highly-regarded manager. In the years we've been doing this, we haven't seen very many examples of a manager consistently over- or under-achieving relative to our projections. Generally speaking, our results have proven to be more accurate when we ignore the managers.

The 2006 Regulars

Brian Gunn has a preview up at the Hardball Times. It's a good preview of the Cardinals, but it's really the non-Cardinal stuff that interests me here. I mean, what was the deal with Mark Loretta -- are his late career peak and 2005 injuries signs of the scarlet 'S'? Is Mark Grudzielanek hurt? Is Luis Gonzalez really available?

Anyway, on with a discussion of the 2006 regulars, at least as they stand now. The executive summary is that the Cardinals have the best player in baseball, two declining All-Stars still capable of MVP-caliber seasons, two decent complimentary players in Eckstein and Encarnacion, two players (Yadier and Spivey) who need to step up their offensive contributions, and a void that will have to be addressed by trade. The Cardinals offense has come down a notch.

Yadier Molina isn't my cup of tea. Last year there were 27 catchers with at least 300 at-bats and young Yadi finished 25th among them in OPS. Yeah, I know, he's a great defensive catcher, I'll get to that in a minute, but stathead prejudices die hard, and I really don't want five more years of Mike Matheny's bat. Keith Woolner found that catchers don't age well as hitters, so it's possible that's what just we'll get. There's an obvious goal for Molina here, assuming it doesn't bother his manager that his catcher spends some time working on his hitting.

There could be another, more glorious goal in mind though. A couple of defensive metrics showed Yadier Molina as the best, or close to the best, defensive catcher in 2005. And consider this:

A typical catcher handles a pitching staff better over the course of his first few years in the majors with a club. This is evident by the rather dramatic drop in the team ERA of about a quarter to a third of a run per game from his rookie season to his prime years with a club.

Well, there's one place to fight some regression to the mean on the pitching staff. More germane to this point, Yadier Molina's defense might improve in 2006. Now this is where weird thoughts starting floating in my head, thoughts like "Could Yadier Molina end-up the greatest defensive catcher ever?" Like I said, Molina's not my style of player, but there's stuff he does that PECOTA and ZiPS aren't going to pick up. He does enough of that stuff that you can measure an Internet talking head's expertise on the Cardinals by the person's opinion of Molina.

Albert Pujols has his own glorious goals of course. He's chasing after the greatest Cardinal ever, greatest 1B ever, greatest right-handed hitter ever, greatest player of the post-steroid era, and so on. Those are all career goals though, and I think he could have one lofty immediate goal. No, not the Triple Crown, although this could be the year he takes a good shot at it. It's a little more personal than that.

Barry Bonds won the 2001 through 2004 NL MVP awards, then only managed to play 14 games in 2005. Right now Bonds is like an undefeated former heavyweight champion who lost his belt on some procedural grounds. If Pujols wants to be the undisputed king, he needs to beat Bonds. As far as Pujols is concerned, Bonds can't have any excuses, legit or otherwise; if he cheated before, then he should continue to cheat, because Pujols wants to beat him at his best.

Junior Spivey at this point just wants spring training to end. After that, his first priority is staying healthy. It's going to be a long season with the 2Bs, isn't it?

Scott Rolen wants his Hall of Fame career back. Gunn covered the most important Rolen point already:

Like Darin Erstad or Marcus Giles, Rolen plays a hard-nosed brand of baseball, one of the many reasons he’s said to play the game "the right way." But the right way sometimes goes wrong when it lands a player on the shelf. Rolen, for example, came off the DL too early last year, when he tried to play through pain and put up a .207/.289/.264 line. Reportedly he didn’t want to "let the team down," which is the type of comment that plays better in the press box than on the field... Just as an elite player needs discipline at the plate and on the base paths, a guy like Rolen may need discipline while recovering from injury, and in some ways that may be his hardest test.

Even the Choi collision could be questioned: Why the heck was Rolen busting it down the line on a squibber back to the pitcher? It's an unfair question, but it's also something Rolen has to start thinking about. Somewhere JD Drew would be laughing, if he had a personality.

David Eckstein has the same problem he had a year ago, even if we're not asking it with the same neurotic frequency. Can his little legs, now a year older, cover the wide spaces required of a shortstop on a groundball staff? With little threat of power, will pitchers adjust to him or can he hit .280 and work some walks? Can he hold up a full season in the sweltering midwestern heat? How long can a guy get by on heart and guts and adrenaline?

It's well-documented that Eckstein's already beaten the doubters a dozen times over, so he doesn't have anything left to prove. It's fun to watch him do it anyway.

So Taguchi holds LF for now, and I guess holding that spot is a lofty goal unto itself. The Cardinals didn't have any obvious options during the offseason -- Brian Giles wasn't leaving San Diego -- but assuming Larry Bigbie continues his low-wattage Larry Walker imitation, Taguchi has a shot at being the worst-hitting regular corner outfield in baseball. The decision to make him the starter reminds me of the decision to let Jason Simontacchi start in 2003: Everybody likes So and Simo and everybody admired their over-achievement the year before to attain mediocrity. I want to say everybody expected they'd crash and burn the next year, but Jocketty was caught flat-footed with Simo in 2003. The farm system has been re-stocked with trade bait and Chris Duncan's become mildly interesting as a prospect, so we can hope this won't be a repeat.

In short, the main goal as far as left field is concerned is finding another left fielder. I don't mean somebody like Kevin Mench or Eric Byrnes either. Jocketty's made his name buying distressed assets with extremely high upside. Think big here.

Jim Edmonds is playing for the Hall of Fame. Nuff said.

Juan Encarnacion is out to prove that just because he's toolsy and he doesn't draw walks doesn't mean he sucks. His batting average should see a spike with the move from Pro Player, or whatever it's called this week. His defense will be worth watching, as he's got a reputation for being awkward out there in spite of very good UZRs (I've found MGL is usually right about this stuff). The money and the quality of player remind me of the Tino deal, and I'm still feeling a little guilty at how I, among countless others, helped run poor Tino out of town. So the big goal here, for me at least, is to behave myself.

Mets Fans

One Mets fans just emailed this to another, and for some reason cc'd me:

I really miss having a shut-down guy like Looper in the Mets' bullpen, don't you? From today's Mets/Cards ST game:

---------------------------
Pitcher Change: Braden Looper replaces Sidney Ponson, batting 2nd.
Xavier Nady singles on a fly ball to center fielder So Taguchi.
With Anderson Hernandez batting, Xavier Nady steals (1) 2nd base.
Anderson Hernandez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Skip Schumaker. Xavier Nady to 3rd.
Chad Bradford strikes out on missed bunt.
Jose Reyes walks. Anderson Hernandez to 2nd.
Paul Lo Duca out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder So Taguchi. Xavier Nady scores.
Carlos Beltran singles on a fly ball to center fielder So Taguchi. Anderson Hernandez scores. Jose Reyes to 3rd.
Carlos Delgado walks. Carlos Beltran to 2nd.
Pitcher Change: Brian Falkenborg replaces Braden Looper, batting 2nd.
----------------------------

He *did* get the opposing pitcher out, so I guess I should cut him some slack.

Barton update

Amidst all the spring training discussion and news, I think one tidbit of note to Cards fans has gone un-noticed. Daric Barton was sent down March 17th after hitting .182/.400/.182 this spring. Granted, this was only 2-for-11, so one more hit would've made for a passable .272 average (small sample size and all). Plus, the A's said even before camp opened that they didn't expect him to be on the roster on Opening Day, if even at all this year. And yeah, he's still near the top of many prospect lists (I'm assuming... he was #41 on one list I saw). But I think we can atleast take some solace in the fact that he's not sticking with the major league club quite as soon as some projected. He could still be an excellent MLB hitter in 2007 or beyond, but I think he's still got a ways to go. Despite putting up great numbers last year in the minors, he spent more time in Single-A than AA, and none at all at AAA yet. And lastly, it looks like he's officially been converted to 1B, dropping his value quite a bit IMHO.

The 2006 Starting Pitchers

We interrupt the agonizing over the 2B and LF spots to contemplate the overall roster in a vaguely comprehensive way. The best numbers I've seen to this point are in the March 20th entry here. So with the aggregates out of the way, let's consider the individual goals. I'll start with the starting pitchers, since they're easier honestly.

Chris Carpenter has done something odd to me. OK, I've been around for a while and I've started reading The Book, so I know that spring training stats aren't meaningful. I know Chris Duncan's homer off Randy Johnson in March doesn't tell me much about how Duncan would fare against, say, Andy Pettitte in July. I may squirm a bit, but I know a poor spring from Junior Spivey doesn't hold a lot of water either. So far, so good. It's bothered me though that Carp's been so tough in spring training. Doesn't he know he's supposed to be chucking fastballs over the heart of the plate, just getting his work in? This isn't figure skating, practice doesn't count.

Carpenter's in St. Louis to compete. Forget the fancy numbers and everything else. When he's on the mound, be it March or October, the juices are flowing. It's no accident that his Gibson-like (Gibsonesque? Gibsonian?) hot streak in 2005 started when he faced his former team, the Blue Jays. It's probably not a coincidence that with the CYA on the line, he was allowed to pitch more in September than was in the team's best interest. It's also probably not a coincidence that he signed an extremely friendly extension with the Cardinals, a team that's genuinely devoted to winning ball games while minimizing so many of the side issues. He's fun to watch, and I hope he doesn't burn himself out.

As much time as I've spent pouring over his stats and scrutinizing his pitching, Mark Mulder is still a mystery to me. From what I read in Aces, that's by design. When other prospects were too busy reading about Mark Whiten or whatever, Mulder was building a brilliant strategy to bore the media to death. So let's look at a list.

Pitcher             W<30   A29S
Hal Newhouser*       185   1950
Vida Blue            156   1979
Ken Holtzman         151   1975
Dave McNally         148   1972
Fernando Valenzuela  141   1990
Sandy Koufax*        138   1965
Steve Carlton*       133   1974
Sam McDowell         132   1972
Jim Kaat             128   1968
Tom Glavine*         124   1995
Frank Tanana         120   1983
Johnny Antonelli     119   1959
Mike McCormick       118   1968
Frank Viola          117   1989
Ross Grimsley        117   1979
Mickey Lolich        116   1970
Johnny Podres        115   1962
Curt Simmons         115   1958
Andy Pettitte        115   2001
Claude Osteen        114   1969
Billy Pierce         114   1956
Dick Ellsworth       112   1969
John Candelaria      110   1983
Don Gullett          109   1978 - x
Jerry Reuss          108   1978
Ray Sadecki          107   1970
Mike Hampton         106   2002
Whitey Ford*         105   1958
Jon Matlack          102   1979
Steve Barber         101   1967
Juan Pizarro          98   1966
Mark Mulder           97   2007

Those are the 31 left-handed pitchers since WW2 with more wins than Mulder through their age-29 seasons, listed in the last column. Asterisks indicate Hall of Famers (and, yes, I'm jumping the gun a bit with Glavine). Wins are a troublesome stat for pitchers and some of these guys didn't age gracefully -- Don Gullett was done at the age of 27 after starting Game Ones of three consecutive World Series -- but you get an idea of what Mulder could accomplish if he can solve this declining-K thing and avoid 300-inning seasons.

Jeff Suppan is a clever man, and I'm not referring to his word of the day. He claims he's Catholic, going so far as to visit the Pope and kiss his ring. In reality Jeff Suppan is a leading evangelist for the Church of Mediocrity. Suppan looked at the 2003 Cardinals and saw names like Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, Renteria and Drew along with names like Tomko, Stephenson, Fassero, Yan and Borbon. Suppan recognized instantly that those pitchers were so awful not even that mighty lineup could carry it, a problem he wouldn't have. Furthermore, the ardent Cardinals fanbase would recognize the value of his work, making it a perfect audience for his demonstration of the difference between mediocre and bad. When the Cardinals' division rivals signed the likes of Maddux and Pettitte, pundits scoffed at Suppan, but this was just part of his cunning plan to convince people that mediocrity is valuable, a plan that reached fruition in Game Seven of the 2004 NLCS with Suppan beating Clemens, the best pitcher in post-war baseball. Of course, Suppan then had to remind us mediocre isn't the same as good, which required something obvious, like running in a circle around third base during the World Series.

So far his plan has worked brilliantly. Nobody says bad things about Jeff Suppan. I hope he's back in 2007, and if he's not, I hope his memories of St. Louis are as positive as my memories of him.

Remember what Brian Gunn wrote a year ago for THT about Rick Ankiel's retirement?

I mean, very few of us get paid to follow our dreams. By the time we reach age 25, most of us have already set aside our ball gloves or our guitars or our paintbrushes and we’ve started looking for more practical ways to settle down, pay the rent, make do.

That's Jason Marquis in its own weird way, only he's setting his curveball aside, and likely with it any Cy Young ambitions. It's never easy giving up your dreams, especially when you make it 99% of the way and you're sitting right next to guys like Carpenter and Maddux who are accomplishing theirs. Suppan can give his testimonial though and things should work out well enough. It'll be just like the final episode of 'Friends'.

Sidney Ponson's story is well-known. The marquee standard would be Bob Welch's well-publicized turnaround from alcoholism, which reached its zenith with the 1990 Cy Young Award. However Welch was more talented and at least on the field he never reached the depths that Ponson did in 2005.

I think I read in the Post-Dispatch back in January that Ponson did NOT blame his poor 2005 on the bottle. So that sent me to the Lahman database looking for the best seasons a year after a pitcher threw more than 100 innings with an ERA over 6.00. Among those with at least 100 innings pitched in the year after, here are the top 15 postwar pitchers by ERA:

Butch Henry         1994    2.43   COL
Juan Guzman         1996    2.93   
Nelson Briles       1971    3.04   
Andy Ashby          1994    3.40   COL
Glendon Rusch       2004    3.47   DIPS
Joe Kennedy         2004    3.66   ANTI-COL
Dave Lemanczyk      1979    3.71   
Mike Hampton        2003    3.84   COL
Kenny Rogers        2002    3.84   
Darryl Kile         2000    3.91   COL
Mark Gardner        2000    4.05   
Jason Johnson       2001    4.09   
Chris Carpenter     2001    4.09   
Ron Kline           1961    4.14   
Dave Cone           2001    4.31

"COL" means the pitcher was recovering from Colorado; Joe Kennedy's 3.66 ERA happened after he moved to Colorado. Special mention goes to Andy Benes, who 'only' threw 97 innings while compiling a 2.78 ERA in 2002. That's a lot of recent names, even if you don't include the immortal Dave Lemanczyk. I'd think we'd all be happy with 200 innings with an ERA of 4.00.

Kibbles and Bits

A stream-of-consciousness series of questions, with most of the stream running through Tony LaRussa:

• Watching the second half of the George Mason-UConn game yesterday, I was struck by how focused GMU looked, especially on offense. This wasn't a team throwing in garbage or getting by on a higher seed's choke job. They were working good shots and obviously making those shots. George Mason can't be that good, can they?

Thinking about it in contrast to LaRussa's Cardinals in October, is that kind of focus a skill? Does it come from the coach/manager? Can it be honed? This happens every year in the NCAA tournament. Do younger players have higher 'focus ceilings' than older players? Were this weekend's results a function of George Mason's relaxed state? Or was it all just a crapshoot, and this is nothing more than post-hoc psycho-babble?

• Injury analysis is a little more advanced than sports psychoanalysis and it's become clear that injuries are not a crapshoot. As you probably have heard, Larry Bigbie's hurt again. I'll point out this fantasy baseball page again, which details just what we're getting into here. I'm holding out hope that Larry Bigbie's bat could grab LaRussa by the collar and force the issue on playing time, and I'd bet TLR would like to have seen similar assertiveness. With the absence of a you-got-to-play-him LF, we can expect some mixing and matching, button-pushing and dial-twisting. History, in the form of middle infielders like Shawon Dunston and Marlon Anderson, suggests that when presented an outfield vacuum, Tony LaRussa pursues agendas beyond MGL-like run scoring and run prevention. With Bigbie out for a while, is Chris Duncan the best hope to keep LaRussa on track?

At least Brian Walton's take was worth a smile:

To get a more scientific answer, I consulted Rick Wilton, the internet’s first baseball injury analyst and the only one with medical training.

Gee, who you do think that's about?

• I know managers are required to talk-up their players, but isn't this going overboard on So Taguchi? Scott Rolen better bring a pair of comfortable walking shoes.

• When he's projected as the #8 hitter, Junior Spivey obviously hasn't evoked warm fuzzies thus far. The bigger problem is that Spivey won't stay healthy. Tony Graffanino has to be considered, although Jocketty apparently isn't interested. How many "Get Out Of Memphis Free" cards does Hector Luna have left?

• Yes, it's that time of year when the rosters start getting pared, and Brian Daubach and Jeff Nelson got cut. Really, the only Daubach transaction that could be big news would be the unspeakable. Jeff Nelson's departure is proof that, yes, Tony LaRussa has in fact met a veteran he didn't like, one with an out-pitch and pretty spring training stats, no less. I suppose the more precise interpretation is that the Cardinals are satisfied with their bullpen alternatives. As someone commented here last week, the roster is fluid, especially early in the year. But can LaRussa say no to Alan Benes?

• I caught a little bit of the spring training games on Satuday and Sunday, and Al Hrabosky makes my head hurt. He can't really believe the last week of spring training is that important, can he?

Blah

I've got a fever, I've been throwing up and the Cardinals announced Sidney Ponson will be their fifth starter and Anthony Reyes is headed to Memphis. This hasn't been my day.

So Long, Al...

In perusing the agate in the NYT sports section this morning, I noticed this line:

"TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS---Signed RHP Al Reyes to a minor league contract."

Well that sucks. I know he's a 35-year-old set-up man who'll be out for the season rehabbing after surgery (he is out for the year, isn't he?), but as a Cardinal at the end of 2004 and throughout 2005 he was as good an arm out of the bullpen as we've had in along time.

Total line as a Redbird:

 G    IP   H   R  ER  SO  BB   ERA  WHIP
77  74.2  41  16  16  78  22  1.93  0.84

Gone with hardly a sound, and, perhaps, unfortunately, soon to be forgotten. But his performance out of the pen will surely be missed.

Coming Down Broadway

If you're getting antsy about Junior Spivey's spring training and defense, if you don't think Aaron Miles's career 67 OPS+ is the solution at 2B, and if you think Hector Luna and Deivi Cruz are stretched when used beyond a utility role, then I've got the ideal candidate for you! The Padres just released Bobby Hill for some unknown reason. As you may recall, Hill, Brendan Harris, Hee Seop Choi and Ronnie Cedeno (or the shortstop prospect of the month) were to form a Cubs infield that would bury the Cardinals for ten years. Obviously it didn't quite work that way, although picking up Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton in return for those youngsters would do even Walt Jocketty proud.

Hill's offense isn't anything special, he's fragile and my defensive stats computer is in mothballs right now, but I wouldn't experience a Jim-Mora-saying-"The playoffs?!?"-class fit like I did when Tony Womack was obtained. In other words, Hill's probably not any worse than the guys already in camp. I saw Hill a couple of times here in Indianapolis in 2005, and my eyewitness accounts weren't at all memorable, except that it was disappointing that his walkup music wasn't the theme to King of the Hill.

Now it's time to fill my bracket. Based on this, I think I'm going with Kansas.

Sometimes the Grass Isn't Greener

I don't like Kerry Wood. When I saw Carlos Zambrano pitching in the WBC the other night, I was ready to accuse Venezuela of being in the Axis of Evil. Mark Prior is another matter though. Prior hasn't smirked after buzzing Matt Morris and he hasn't gone berserk after Rolen homered off him. Yes, Prior said something silly back in 2003, but that was only after Steve Kline said he wanted to see Prior hit in the head. Prior's a very talented pitcher and as I've aged I've come to want to see that kind of potential realized. As you've probably heard, Mark Prior has had another setback and has jetted to California to visit Dr. Lewis Yocum.

In Three Nights in August, Tony LaRussa expresses his resentment towards Mark Prior's swagger. While LaRussa comes off as petty as he often does in connection with opponents, he recognized the similarity between Prior in 2003 and Rick Ankiel of pre-October 2000. LaRussa's observation seems prescient, as much like Ankiel, Prior's main function now is to frustrate Cubs fans. We know your pain, Cubs fans, even if we don't like to admit it. Well, we don't know that 1908 thing.

In other news, it may not be 1908, but the Michigan Wolverines' last NCAA tournament berth is still from the 1997-1998 season and the natives are getting restless. I attended the game that sealed Michigan's fate, an ugly loss to a bad Minnesota squad, and the thought that runs through my mind now is that Michigan's coaching staff either doesn't have a plan or they have no idea how to execute it. LaRussa, for all of his faults and blemishes, does have a plan in place and he definitely has a track record of execution. It's possible that plan is doomed to fall short of the gold standard -- nobody can say for sure and I don't know of any plan that consistently achieves the gold standard.

At least that's what I tell myself as the Cardinals try to turn Anthony Reyes into a groundball clone and the threat of Scott Spiezio looms.

#51

Cardnilly has a post about Willie McGee up today, and besides the required Ray Lankford mention they offer the best case for Willies popularity I've read:

Willie’s also loved because he’s a reflection of past glory. He was the last member of the vintage Whiteyball teams to be in Cardinal uniform as a player — his last year was 1999. Ozzie’s last year was 1996; Terry Pendleton left in 1990; Jose Oquendo lasted until 1995; Andy Van Slyke left in 1986; Vince Coleman and John Tudor were gone in 1990; Tommy Herr, 1987; Bob Forsch left in 1988. After Ozzie retired, every time Willie stepped on the field at Busch he was the living embodiment of the great 1980s teams.

He managed to span two generations of Cards fans this way. Of course all the people who were fans back during the Whiteyball era still loved him, but all the new fans brought in during TLR’s tenure — particularly those brought in during Mac’s homer spectacles — now had a living breathing member of those teams to cheer on. By rooting for Willie, the new fans were able to assert some authenticity to their fanhood: they weren’t just fairweather fans there only to cheer McGwire; they were real Cardinal fans because they knew about Willie.

Lankford was a better player, but retiring McGees number isn't about Stats or objective measurements of value, it's about emotional resonance. And for whatever reason (and I think Scott nails it pretty exactly) McGees value to the Cardinals, to the ephemeral idea of rooting for a team, is far beyond Lankfords. And it's that impact, an impact you can't measure or quantify but anybody whose followed the Cardinals even lightly over any time in the last 20 years can bear witness too, that demands #51 never be worn by another Cardinal.

Reyes's Repertoire

Read Matthew Leach's latest on the decision to make Anthony Reyes learn a sinking fastball, and then read Brian Walton's (free!) questions in response. It's not pretty:

"He can't be successful without it," said La Russa. "How is that tough? It gives you your best chance. You can't pitch at the top of the zone -- I don't care how hard you throw.

"You don't get any points for trying. It will make him a better pitcher. He's a talented guy. He'll incorporate it."

Walton says:

Exactly what in the heck has Reyes been doing in the minor leagues the past few seasons? If he had not been working on preparing a major-league pitching repertoire, was he just firing chin-high fastballs at everyone and padding his strikeout counts in Triple-A?

It's always good to have that extra tool in the box. That said, this donkey with a computer thinks the Cardinals have decided to send Reyes back to Memphis and are building an explanation/excuse for the kid's benefit, not that there's any wrong with having pitching depth. I do wonder if Rick Ankiel is the only person who's never recovered from the 2000 NLDS.

Einstein was a Cardinal fan

Librarians have just discovered a photo tucked in an old book showing proof that not only was Albert Einstein a Card's fan, but a previously unknown equation on the chalk board behind him shows he was even a greater genius than previously thought.

Works for me.

Barry Bonds has a problem

An SI Story tomorrow details his steriod use.

BALCO tracked Bonds' usage with doping calendars and folders -- detailing drugs, quantities, intervals and Bonds' testosterone levels -- that wound up in the hands of federal agents upon their Sept. 3, 2003 raid of the Burlingame, Calif., business.

If it's true (and theres a lot of evidence there) then does McGuire get the home run record back?

Kirby Puckett

Kirby Puckett died yesterday at 45. It's not Cardinals news, but a guy who always seemed like he was 12 dying at 45 is a shock.

Sold Out

Fungoes details his plight in finding single-game tickets during the 2006 season. I tried on Saturday too, got the "High Volume" message the first time, and like the 26th man, said something along the lines of "Forget this." The way season tickets have flown out the door, I didn't see a positive outcome to this battle.

It seems to me there's something wrong when tickets sell that quickly. Don't misunderstand me; as a fan, I like to go to games and, as a little cog in corporate America, I like to keep my money in the stock market. But I think the Cardinals underpriced their tickets for 2006. I suppose there's a PR-angle to consider -- the Cardinals don't want Bernie Miklasz kvetching about ticket prices and then re-hashing payroll promises and urinal sales again -- and there are long-term relationships to maintain. My amateur opinion is still that prior to St. Patrick's Day a baseball team shouldn't be a virtual sellout for the entire season.

As for spring training, I am trying to convince myself not to squirm when the runs allowed pile up. As long as there's good news to report, I suppose that will work, even if the Mets fan at work is asking about mercy rules during Grapefruit League games. Rolen's starting Tuesday and almost as helpful to my emotional well-being is this tidbit from Leach on Jason Marquis:

This year, however, he intends to complement the sinker with a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch.

"I think it's really going to help me and make my sinker that much better," said Marquis. "I always should have been a fastball-changeup guy. I've always had a better feel for my changeup than anything -- of my offspeed pitches."

Woo hoo!

VEB raised a point about Brad Voyles. I think back to the 2003 season when the pitching-starved Cardinals had mid-season acquisitions like Esteban Yan, Pedro Borbon and Sterling Hitchcock, called up minor league journeymen like Gabe Molina and Kevin Ohme (who currently has the lowest MLB ERA in history!), and rushed Dan Haren to the majors. Left off that list was the 2003 PCL ERA leader, Jay Ryan. I've always assumed that the reason Ryan didn't get the call was LaRussa and/or Duncan saw him in spring training and didn't think he had the stuff to get major league hitters out. Judging by Ryan's subsequent record, they would've been right. All that is to say Voyles may have moved up a spot or two for the opening in July when Jason Isringhausen has his annual owie.

Rollforwards

Ben Jacobs at the Hardball Times and Newton at the Batter's Box have previews for the Cardinals up. Both articles raised a lot of questions in my head. For example, just how much will it hurt to lose Reggie Sanders? While he had an 886 OPS, he only had 295 at-bats and evidently he had a poor season in the field (how pathological is it to pop-under ads on a browser that's set to block pop-unders?). How do you compare Sidney Ponson against Matt Morris -- Ponson's sucked the past couple of years, but the presence of Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright should mean a short leash and it's not like Morris was anything more than mediocre in 2005. Could Ray King really have been a contributor? And really why is it that both Jacobs and Newton omitted any mention of my favorite Al Reyes? Does the author of their Q document still hold a grudge over the Nomar wrist incident?

I don't think they're Cardinal fans, so these questions probably aren't as interesting to them as they are to me. It dawned on me that historical Win Shares spreadsheet could be useful in answering the non-Reyes the Elder questions. So far the Cardinals have lost 89 Win Shares from the 2005 squad, which works to almost 30 wins of production. So now we compare that to prior years and, while we're at it, also examine prior improvements along the lines of what we're all expecting from Rolen in 2006.

In fact we can go one better and roll the win total from season X to season X+1. For example, the Cardinals won 105 games in 2004, lost 24.7 "wins" (i.e., thirds of Win Shares) from defectors such as Edgar Renteria and Woody Williams, got 28.7 wins in 2005 from players not on the 2004 roster and experienced a Rolen-fueled 9.0 win net reduction among players retained from the 2004 roster. Add 'em all up and you're at 100 wins. We can further break up that "retained player" gain/loss into guys who went up (e.g., So Taguchi) and guys who went down (Ray King). Here's a table:

Year	Prev Wins	Sub	Add	Ups	Downs	Curr Wins
1976	82.0	-20.3	24.7	12.3	-26.7	72.0
1977	72.0	-19.3	27.3	21.3	-18.3	83.0
1978	83.0	-16.7	23.7	5.7	-26.7	69.0
1979	69.0	-5.0	14.7	19.0	-11.7	86.0
1980	86.0	-12.3	18.0	4.7	-22.3	74.0
1981	74.0	-30.3	32.8	19.5	-2.3	93.7
1982	93.7	-18.5	27.3	13.3	-23.8	92.0
1983	92.0	-6.0	11.7	8.3	-27.0	79.0
1984	79.0	-5.7	13.0	15.3	-17.7	84.0
1985	84.0	-25.3	35.0	19.7	-12.3	101.0
1986	101.0	-17.0	10.3	15.0	-30.3	79.0
1987	79.0	-12.0	12.0	27.3	-11.3	95.0
1988	95.0	-18.3	19.3	11.3	-31.3	76.0
1989	76.0	-13.7	19.0	18.0	-13.3	86.0
1990	86.0	-9.7	25.0	11.7	-43.0	70.0
1991	70.0	-27.7	7.7	36.3	-2.3	84.0
1992	84.0	-6.3	19.3	17.3	-31.3	83.0
1993	83.0	-18.0	27.7	12.3	-18.0	87.0
1994	87.0	-13.3	11.8	10.8	-21.0	75.3
1995	75.3	-27.0	32.5	14.4	-24.9	70.2
1996	70.2	-30.2	42.7	13.8	-8.5	88.0
1997	88.0	-10.7	28.7	3.0	-36.0	73.0
1998	73.0	-20.0	18.3	23.0	-11.3	83.0
1999	83.0	-37.0	29.7	16.7	-17.3	75.0
2000	75.0	-28.7	47.7	14.0	-13.0	95.0
2001	95.0	-22.0	28.3	10.3	-18.7	93.0
2002	93.0	-14.3	27.7	9.7	-19.0	97.0
2003	97.0	-17.3	14.3	11.7	-20.7	85.0
2004	85.0	-23.7	42.0	12.7	-11.0	105.0
2005	105.0	-24.7	28.7	15.0	-24.0	100.0
2006	100.0	-29.7	30.8	13.0	-17.9	96.2

I've pro-rated those awful strike years to 162 games. Obviously the 2006 additions and ups/downs won't be available until October, so I've naively averaged the past ten seasons.

It certainly isn't a good thing to lose players like Walker, but note that the Cardinals had similar exoduses in 1981, 1996 and 2000. The 2003 decline was mainly a result of retained players not performing more than replacements not matching departers (and there's also the accounting problem from the Cardinals outperforming their 2002 Pythagorean and underperforming their 2003 Pythagorean). The 2004 uptick was powered by newcomers, although counting Chris Carpenter as a newcomer is cheating a bit. A couple of graphs might be useful here:

I'm simplifying some things here. McGwire naturally created many more Win Shares in 1998 than in 1997 (was an "up") since he was traded mid-season in 1997. The second graph though suggests that players don't improve much after their first year with LaRussa, perhaps because there haven't been many youngsters the previous ten years and the most prominent of those few youngsters was an MVP candidate from Day One. In other words, what seems to have driven the Cardinals' recent success is either Jocketty's maneuvers, players responding immediately to LaRussa, or some combination of the two.

It's finally started

The first game of the year is in the books and even though it doesn't count it is nice to look at a boxscore again.

Pujols and Molina both hit three run jacks. Spviey went 0-2 with a walk, Spivey is an interesting case because not only is he a DBacks middle infield refugee (see Womack, Tony) he had one monster year that lurks in the background of any discussion about his prospects.

Let's play a game and see if you can figure out which year was the big one:

Walk Rate:

2001  .096

2002  .088

2003  .071

2004  .087

2005 (mw)   .072

2005 (nat)   .109

Can you tell from that? How about looking at the percentage of at bats that ended as strikeouts:

2001  29%

2002  19%

2003  26%

2004  21%

2005 (mw)   31%

2005 (nat)   34%

Now I bet you can figure out where the career year was.

2002: .389/.476/.301.

Spivey never repeated that, managing only .359/.421/.272 in 2004 that's even close. Spivey's year in 2002 was a fluke because he didn't strike out nearly as much. The Cardinals emphasis on contact hitting might help him (and I've heard him referenced as a contact hitter a few times by the Cardinals so maybe they're pushing him in this direction), but I'm not holding my breath. His walk rate is decent enough that if he were to manage a decent batting average he would be a nice second baseman, but history says it's not likely.

Yahoo!

I woke up, fell out of bed, and found this on my computer:

I'll drive many hours just to see a game, even a minor league game, so the aesthetics of the sport appeal to me. But there's something about the almost-daily results of baseball that's special, and today that begins in earnest. I'm ready, darn it.

Great Days (kinda, sorta) in Cardinals History

By common reckoning, today marks the 102nd anniversary of the birth of Johnny Leonard Roosevelt "Pepper" Martin. I say "common reckoning" because, in keeping with his somewhat off the wall personality, Pepper was a leap year baby, who was born on February 29, 1904. So while he would have turned 102 today, he would have to wait til 2008 to celebrate his 26th birthday.

Dubbed "The Wild Horse of the Osage" during his minor league career for his aggressive style of play, he was known for making a mad dash on every batted ball as if it were the last inning of the seventh game of the World Series with the game on the line. Known for his speed on the basepaths, a baseball writer asked how he came to be such a fast runner. Martin replied, "I grew up in Oklahoma, and once you start runnin' out there there ain't nothin' to stop you." In addition to his speed, he was known for his barrel chest, which stood him in good stead in two respects: he often used it for his spectacular headfirst slides when stealing bases (Martin led the National League in stolen bases in 1933, 1934, and 1936, and was in the top three in the league in 1931 (3rd) and 1935 (2nd)), and he would often field ground balls off his chest when playing third base. Martin was a solid, if not spectacular player. He made the All Star team four times in his career (1933-35 inclusive, and 1937), but peaked in Hall of Fame voting in 1958, when he garnered 58 BBWAA votes (17.3%; he first appeared on the Hall ballot in 1942, and finally fell off in 1964).

In addition to his on the field skills, Martin made a major contribution to the Cardinals teams of the 20s and 30s by acting as court jester. He was an inveterate prankster, often pulling practical jokes on his teammates (dropping paper bags full of water out of hotel windows was one of his favorites), and Martin organized and fronted "The Mudcat Band", a Cardinals musical auxiliary which featured Martin on guitar, and a rotating cast of characters including Bob Weiland on jug, Frenchy Bordagaray on washboard, and Bill McGee on fiddle. (When McGee was sent down to the minors for seasoning, Martin kvetched: "My only fiddler, and they send him to the minors." But when McGee returned, Martin was restrained in his praise: "He's gotten better, but only on the fiddle.")

Pepper spent his entire 13 season career with the Cardinals. After his retirement in 1944, he owned a prosperous cattle ranch in his native Oklahoma, spent some time managing in the minors ("I'm not a good manager," he was quoted as saying, "I'm too thin-skinned and tender hearted"), and did some time as an Oklahoma deputy sheriff and state prison warden. At the time of his death in 1965, he was planning a return to baseball as a coach with the Texas League's Tulsa Oilers.

I realize I'm too late for this year (this is the kind of thing that requires some advanced preparation), but if you were planning to do something special to mark Pepper's birthday, you could do worse than cooking up a mess of sour dough biscuits from Pepper's own autographed recipe (follow a link on that page to a printable version, if you really want to try it yourself).

Like Sands Through the Hourglass

The Rick Ankiel soap opera was renewed for another season. If ESPN's proposed Barry Bonds-centric reality show falls through, then maybe they should consider turning to Ankiel. I root for him as much as anybody and I wouldn't put it past him to be an above-average major league outfielder one day. But it just isn't going to work out with him and the Cardinals, is it?

In other news, as I've gotten older, I've become less passionate about who mans the 24th and 25th roster spots. Yeah, sure, it could matter, but when I start crunching runs created/runs saved and Pythagoreans, then I find the difference between 100 at-bats from Brian Daubach and 20 innings from Tyler Johnson isn't all that significant. The Kremlinologist in me however still likes trying to figure out who will make the roster. If the lineup in yesterday's exhibition against Florida Atlantic, as reported by Derrick Goold, is any indication, then it doesn't look good for Aaron Miles and John Gall. As Emil Brown can tell you, getting the start against FAU seems to be the kiss of death.

Goold's also reported that So Taguchi is the last unsigned Cardinal. You can see some baseball fans' jaws clench as they spit out the words "the Union" in disgust. One good thing about the Union though is baseball's lack of holdouts among major leaguers; the pre-arbitration guys take their pittance with hardly a complaint. Taguchi isn't exactly your typical pre-arb case though. He turns 37 in July, so there won't be any big paydays in his future. However, there were some big paydays in his past, so like Sammy Sosa, he could take his ball and go home. Taguchi will probably sign, but I'd say it would be a good idea to keep the Schupp folks and their creative solutions away from this one.