Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da

Thankfully I'm not old enough to remember the 1960's. On June 1, 1987, the local newspaper celebrated the 20th anniversary of the release of the Beatles' Sergeant Pepper's, and when I started listening then I was hooked. I bought all their albums -- vinyl! -- and even though they're the Beatles, there was plenty of stuff new to me. Without a doubt the most unfamiliar work was the White Album, which as you probably know is completely different from the "I Want to Hold Your Hand" music. It was a fascinating mess, all the more so for a suburban kid who liked to question authority, but, well, not too much. "Revolution Number 9" really took hold, as I never had heard anything like it and yet it was the Beatles, and that combination meant of course it was the coolest thing in the world.

Then not long afterwards it dawned me that "Revolution Number 9" was garbage. They say McCartney and the Beatles' producer George Martin fought hard to keep it off the album, and I can't blame them. I've imagined a 13-year-old in 1968 spending his lawn mowing money on a Beatles double album, only to find twelve minutes of noise on the fourth side. What was Lennon thinking when he pushed that on his audience? Was his goal to see how many fans he could drive away? Or was he trying to find out how absurd he could be and still get paid doing it?

Like the White Album, 2006 has been an uneven set, and Mark Mulder's two starts are "Revolution Number 9". There's not much more to say here. Everyone's frustrated, even Al Hrabosky, hoping Mulder or LaRussa or DeWitt stops fighting the obvious. I only wish there was some way to blame this on Yoko Ono.

The Reward for Mediocrity is . . . ?

20 days ago in this space (Marquis de Sad), I opined that a .500 record the rest of the way should be enough for our Birds to win the NL Central. When I wrote that, I hoped it was a worst-case scenario. It's looking more like .500 is the best we can hope for. Sorry if that's gloom and doom, I'm tryin' to keep it real here.

After games of August 8th:

NL Central    W   L   GB
St. Louis    61  51   --
Cincinnnati  58  55  3.5

After games of August 28th:

NL Central    W   L   GB
St. Louis    69  60   --
Cincinnnati  67  65  3.5

Not much has changed, as you can see. In those 20 days, the Cardinals went 8-9; the Reds went 9-10, preserving the status quo. With 33 games to go for our team, I still believe a 17-16 finish wins the division, especially since the Reds have to go 20-10 to top that. (Anyone else think it's a little odd that the Cardinals have 3 more games remaining than the Reds do at this point? I did a quick scan of the first half schedule -- I don't think the 'Birds had any rainouts, home or road. I assume it's just a quirk of the 16-team, 3-division schedule, but with our pitching staff, we could sure use the extra off days. The Cardinals have one in September, the Reds have four.)

Phil Rogers' article at ESPN.com highlights another reason why the Cardinals should win the division -- their next 26(?!?!?!?!?) games are against teams with losing records, and the team who ends that streak, the Padres, could be under .500 by the time they come to Busch III.

So what are the holes in Phil's assertion? A hot Marlins team (8 Ws in a row) still in the wild card chase, and a Pirates team that swept the Cardinals just three weekends ago. Favorable stuff? Only 14 of the remaining 33 are on the road (Cards are 38-24 at home). 7 games with Houston (Cardinals hold a 5-4 edge in 2006) and 7 games with Milwaukee (Cardinals edge 6-3) are a set of games where I'm expecting an even split, 7-7.

This has been a strange season. Not quite 2003-strange, but strange. To make the playoffs will still be more of an accomplishment than 22 other teams will be able to claim, but anything after that, in my view, is gravy.

Dan (TSF)

It's Alive!

If you're going to have a weekend to remember, then you might as well have it against the Cubs, on network television, in the heat of the pennant race and when the team's desperate for wins. So here's to you, Gary Bennett. You've made-up for that other big moment of your career.

Before I go Chris Fowler and over-orchestrated strings, I've got an axe to grind here. When watching the Cardinals on television, especially network television, I've been told that the Cardinals don't care whether their catcher can hit so long as he can handle the pitching staff. While I'd like to think the Cardinals aren't stuck in some pre-Bill James cave, it has been seven years now that they've basically tanked the catcher's spot in the lineup. I'm not saying catcher's defense isn't important; that stathead prejudice has been dead and buried for a few years now. This just seems as a good as time as any to attack the notion that catcher's defense somehow trumps catcher's offense. We've foregone a few games like this, and it has hurt the club in the standings. This offseason the Cardinals need to make an honest appraisal of Yadier Molina's hitting, because they're not in a position where they can settle for an offensive void.

OK, back to the sepia-toned stuff. Over the weekend I was on the road, and got to listen to Friday night's Giants-Reds games (wouldn't it be neat if the Cardinals had something like WLW as their flagship?). MattyMo's three-hitter against a team tied with the Cardinals was enjoyable enough, but his eighth inning two-run double literally gave me goose bumps. Assuming the Giants have the sense to arrange it, the one game to see in Busch this year is Morris's return. Too bad I'll be otherwise occupied.

Other notes:

• Chris Duncan is the flipside of Molina. He turned two routine flyouts into doubles on Friday, and at the very least turned a single into another double. To quantify that, turn a couple of Duncan doubles into outs and another double into a single and you've docked him 30 or so points of OPS. Of course he's still having a nice season, but I don't know what you do with Duncan. Unfortunately the Cardinals have a history of giving players coming off an overachieving season the opportunity to prove that they in fact were overachieving (16-game winner Garrett Stephenson, Jason Simontacchi, So Taguchi). I'm not really looking forward to his 2007 campaign.

• Anthony Reyes threw seven innings of shutout ball last night at Memphis to go along with six shutout innings in his previous start. Compare how he handled the demotion to AAA to Luna's apparent moping last year, and Reyes has shown his own resilience. That reminds me, Al Reyes has returned to pitch at AAA as well.

• For some reason I thought of Larry Bigbie on Sunday.

Clean Sweep

Like the tired horse finally catching the exhausted horse, the Reds stand tied with the Cardinals tonight. That bothers me less than the exceedingly poor play of late. Two months ago I suggested this was a play-out-the-string season, and I still believe that. I'll admit it's been harder watching Team DFA than I had expected.

Derrick Goold's latest has ownership's perspective on this season, and they're not happy. DeWitt's defensive about payroll and the sweep at the hands of the Mets may reinforce his point. According to USA Today's salary database, the Cardinals have three pitchers they're paying more than Chris Carpenter. Those three pitchers are, in order, Jason Isringhausen, Mark Mulder and Jason Marquis, who just happen to be the three pitchers who took the L's in the recent series.

Why?

The stakes were high enough tonight, that this had a playoff-caliber tension. Unfortunately it's turning into Game 5 of the 2000 NLCS, with Mulder playing a strange version of Ankiel. Unless the point of this exercise was to humiliate Mark Mulder, what happened tonight made no sense. Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and anyone else involved with this decision should be ashamed of themselves.

Dirty Dozen

No fancy stats tonight. No spreadsheets, no SQL, no tables. I swear I could feel that one coming. Right after the Pujols grand slam that was my thought "Could they find the way to lose this?" I'm not claiming to have great instincts and I didn't just read Jonathan Livingston Seagull or something. I'm sure I wasn't the only one with this feeling, as obviously this team isn't good and it knows it isn't good.

Tonight's game felt like a Columbo episode. You knew who the killer is and you know Columbo will catch him. It's just a matter of how he'll catch him. After the Pujols slam, here's the plot:

(1) Staked to a six-run lead in the 5th, Jeff Weaver walked the first batter he faced
(2) During the next at-bat Yadier Molina made a lazy stab at a Weaver pitch for a passed ball.
(3) Still the same batter, Chris Duncan and Aaron Miles approached a popup to short left tentatively, both looking out of position. The pop dropped and, thanks to the passed ball, there was no force at second.
(4) Then after a clean single to load the bases with nobody out, Carlos Beltran -- who looks like he'll be the first Met to be named NL MVP -- grounded one right back to Weaver. An easy 1-2-3 double play, right? No, Weaver was so unprepared for something positive, he threw a 50-foot underhand lob to Molina to get only one.
(5) With the bases still loaded, a warm Randy Flores was not brought into face Carlos Delgado.
(6) Weaver fell behind 3-1 to Delgado, then gave in. Grand slam returned.
(7) Looking for some insurance on a two-run lead, Juan Encarnacion led off the 6th with a single and a stolen base. Two strikeouts and a groundout later, he was stranded at second.
(8) After a well-executed bunt single from Endy Chavez, Adam Wainwright walked 8th place hitter Chris Woodward (620 OPS coming into tonight's game) to move Chavez to second. Once he was sac bunted to third, Chavez would score on a groundout, bringing the Mets to within a run.
(9) In both the 8th and 9th the Cardinals had first and second with one out. Albert Pujols and Ronnie Belliard rolled over Chad Bradford's offerings for inning-killing double plays.
(10) It didn't cost a run, but Tyler Johnson plunked recent AAA callup Michael Tucker and then froze in the headlights on a hard sac bunt attempt. After staring at 2B for what seemed an eternity, he took the sure out at first.
(11) To start the 9th, So Taguchi played a line drive single tentatively. Maybe he should've had that, maybe Edmonds would've had it, I'm not sure. To add to the ugliness, Taguchi took his eye off the ball after it bounced, and barely managed to save an error.
(12) Jason Isringhausen served up his 10th homer of the year.

At some point Peter Falk turns and says "Just one more thing, Mr. Badguy." The negative waves actually started before the grand slam, when Belliard for some odd reason was thrown out at the plate with the Cardinals up 3-1 with nobody out in the 5th.

Pujols had a fantastic game, sadly reminiscent of the "Pujols Game" against the Cubs in 2004. That game was emblematic of the 2004 season, that you couldn't count the Cardinals out. With the lead over the Reds slipping to one game, tonight is a microcosm of the 2006 squad. They have their positives, one big positive in particular. Overall though this team lacks talent and lacks confidence, and that won't be solved before the season's end.

On a more immediate note, if the Cardinals make the playoffs, tonight also demonstrated they have some significant matchup problems with the best team in the NL. The Mets have two good switch-hitters, a good lefty and a good (if fading) right-hander, and Josh Hancock is the only reliever who in 2006 has shown the ability to get out both left-handed and right-handed batters. Hancock of course didn't pitch tonight, so we can see how highly his success is regarded. The Cardinals are right-handed-heavy with hitters too, which Chad Bradford can neutralize effectively.

Now let's see how the plot unravels with Mulder.

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Bernie Miklasz has a column up on the Duncan/Encarnacion at-bat on Saturday. This gets to the heart of what I've been contemplating all summer long. "Stats versus instincts" miscasts the discussion; really what we're talking about here is "good stats versus bad stats". Even if he didn't quantify Duncan's recent performance, the argument for Duncan batting in the ninth was based on his very recent numbers, and once it becomes a numbers debate, then Miklasz has to play by the stats geeks' rules.

That said, as a stat guy my impression of the decision changed on one pitch. Ohman started Encarnacion off with a fastball that looked to be a few inches outside, and Encarnacion's response was to open up his hips and try to yank the ball. Lucky for him he just got the top of the ball (not so lucky for him was that he kept topping the ball throughout the at-bat), because if he had put it in play, it probably would've been a 6-4-3. Encarnacion demonstrated all the awareness of an untrained walrus in that at-bat, and I suppose that's not a surprise.

As for real baseball discussion, as opposed to meta stuff, after this weekend I'm worried about the starting rotation. Um, actually what I mean is that I'm worried specifically about its stamina. Marquis could manage only five innings on Friday, Suppan looked like the pitching equivalent to a punch-drunk prizefighter by the fourth inning, and Carpenter was pushed to 114 pitches. This isn't a good Cubs lineup, especially with Barrett out Saturday and Sunday, so it's not getting easier. Even though the AAA squad is dreadful, Anthony Reyes, Chris Narveson, Brian Falkenborg, Josh Kinney and Brad Thompson all could eat some innings in September. Each is already on the 40-man roster. Generally I've refrained from attacking the ownership as cheap -- $95 million in the NL Central should've been more than adequate this year -- but if all five of those guys aren't on the roster in eleven days, then my mind may be changed.

Cardinals Pick Up Wilson

The Cardinals have announced they've signed Preston Wilson, who had just been released by the Astros. I'd like a Cingular Wireless poll for who they kick off the 25-man roster:

(A) Timo Perez
(B) So Taguchi
(C) Jim Edmonds (hey, Jim, you're my favorite player, but this concussion business is serious)
(D) Jason Marquis
(E) Anthony Reyes

The Cardinals answered (E), evidently with the intention of putting Mulder back into the rotation in spite of a 5 run, 7 hit, 5 walk performance last night. An ugly season could get uglier.

The Reds Step Up

Cincinnati Reds Volunteer To Win NL Central

CINCINNATI—The Cincinnati Reds (61-58) officially put their names forward as 2006 NL Central division champions Wednesday, after sensing that if they didn't offer to finish in first place, no one would. "We just figured that the Cardinals would do it again since they've been the ones doing it the past couple years, but they don't really seem to want to this season," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "It's been a while since we came in first, so I guess it's our turn. No way are we doing it next year, though." Narron and his team also volunteered to get swept by the Mets in the first round of the playoffs.

The Cards are 1.5 games up as I type.

Two Nights in August

I need to apologize to Edmonds. It turns out he had a darn good reason to look clueless at the plate:

Edmonds mentioned to assistant trainer Greg Hauck that he was having difficulty focusing and had blurred vision before taking the field for the fifth inning... Until he woke up Wednesday, Edmonds had thought it was only the second inning when he came out...

There were other shaky moments on Tuesday. During his second at-bat, which ended with an awkward swing for strike three on a pitch from Aaron Harang that was up and in, Edmonds said he was just trying to survive.

"I swung at a pitch and felt like I was going to, not literally, but fall over," Edmonds said. "I was like, wow, how am I going to get through this?"

Yeah, wow. Get it taken care of, Jim. You only get one brain. I'm not real happy to see LaRussa pushing/hinting for Edmonds' quick return. Jeez, put the man on the disabled list to prevent something silly.

Anthony Reyes's outing was a big downer in its own right. Consider this:

That's some substantial deterioration at the major league level, especially in the walks category. Yeah, I know major league hitters are better. That said, I saw Edwin Encarnacion at AAA a year ago, and he wasn't shooting rockets all over the field. So unless he went to Harry Potter's school during the offseason, he doesn't have magical MLB hitter dust. OK, there are adjustments and yadda yadda yadda. Still, if it was that big of a difference, would Chris Duncan have an OPS 200 points lower at Memphis in 2006?

The thing is, all of the Cardinals non-Cy Young starters have struggled this season. Meanwhile Dan Haren is throwing another six shutout innings. Mark Mulder was probably damaged goods; we can curse Billy Beane and the mindset that the Cardinals Needed Big Name Pitching to win in the post-season. There's a bigger problem here though. In spite of Bernie Miklasz's repeated complaints to the contrary, the Cardinals have invested a decent chunk of resources in their pitching, and most of that investment has been in players they've had ample opportunity to develop and evaluate up-close-and-personal. Haren, Marquis, the 2006 Mulder, Suppan, Reyes -- these are the guys the Cardinals should've known better than anyone (or anything, in the case of statistics). It just doesn't look that way.

The final downer of the night was Timo Perez, the outfielder with the career 77 OPS+ hitting in the 5th spot of the lineup. They say the ball will find a weak defensive player. In this case the key at-bats found the weak hitter, as Timo twice batted with the bases loaded. Man, the Cardinals have some tough questions to ask themselves.

More of the Malaise

The sweep at the hands of the Pirates seems to have a struck a nerve with Cardinals fans. See Reverend Redbird or Deadspin, for example. Even Pip at Fungoes is annoyed, although he manages to direct most of his negative waves (appropriately) at Jason Marquis. I reached a similar conclusion right about the time Adam Wainwright gave up a two-run single on Sunday, or maybe it was when the Pirates telecast showed some shirtless guy wandering around PNC with a broom in hand.

Anyway, I'll frame my similar view a bit differently. I've been struggling with the projection method for a team that's basically the same talent-wise as the group that just won 100 games and yet looked dead in the water (again) in Pittsburgh. There's the old stats-versus-scouts debate or objective-subjective argument, but forget about analysis, statistical or otherwise. This season has been simply ugly. Mulder floating pitches to the Cubs and White Sox, Edmonds' lazy at-bats against left-handed pitchers, any Miles at-bat not involving Brad Lidge, Isringhausen's walks, Taguchi's defense, LaRussa tanking Marquis games to save his precious bullpen, eight relievers against the freaking Pirates, Duncan square-pegging Reyes, Encarnacion jogging after a ball, Molina fidgeting behind home plate as yet another 0-2 advantage turns into a 2-2 count... It's been ugliness all around.

Sure, there's precedent for a significant uptick this late in the season. The 2001 club, for example, also happened to have a 62-55 record. But if things continue the way they are, then this effort should not be celebrated. I've reached the point where'd I rather see the Cardinals play .700 ball the rest of the season and not make the playoffs than see this team go through the backdoor on the lack of merits of their competitors. If they win the NL Central playing this kind of baseball, then they're division champs in name only. A "2006" flag on the outfield wall or dugout roof would be a joke, and a division title would be less legitimate than 2001's infamous co-championship claim.

Other thoughts:

• Fungoes covered the Marquis ground almost to the point of overkill. Assuming Mulder does come back, what really is an argument for Marquis? Terrible ERA, terrible peripherals, as Dan of GUB noted his only decent pitch is now just average, we've been told repeatedly he doesn't listen to his coaches. What's he got going for him? The only thing I can discern is the wins stat. If the Cardinals brass doesn't understand the problem with that argument, then throw that decision in my ugly list above.

I suppose there is an argument against Reyes. Sorta. If the Cardinals are worried about his workload and if they figure this isn't exactly the season to go for it, then (gag) it would make sense to pull Reyes from the rotation. I'd hope some inside source would communicate that logic to the public if such is the case.

• Dave Duncan has announced there will be changes. By the time the Cardinals close the door, the horse is not only out of the barn, he's hitch-hiked halfway to his Uncle Ed's place. With Sterling Hitchcock unavailable, Chris Narveson is the most obvious candidate for immediate promotion.

• This could be one of those "Caption this picture" posts:

Aside from looking like he's not quite out of his Michelin man costume or jokes about his surgically re-attached left arm, this picture reminds me of something that I hadn't realized until my trip to Quad Cities. You can't tell it, or at least I can't tell it, from TV or from the 300s sections at Busch III, but Mulder's a big dude. He's 6'6" with a wide build, which makes him look thinner than he is.

Four Little Diamonds

No known way to tie these all together, except to categorize them as the 2006 malaise:

• Someone might want to tell Jim Edmonds that if he wants to play against lefties, then he can't give away at-bats like he did against Zach Duke. Someone also might want to tell Edmonds that sometimes honesty isn't the best policy.

• Mark Mulder's rehab start didn't go well, as you probably know by now. However Mulder could give some lessons to Edmonds on how to answer probing interview questions:

Whatever happens, happens. There are bigger things than just worrying about next season. ... I want to get back and help the team win some games.

OK, he does yield more insight than the Crash Davis quote implies. Mulder thinks it's just a matter of getting his muscle memory right, establishing consistency with his delivery.

• So Taguchi isn't the primary reason or secondary or tertiary or... for the Cardinals' mediocre performance to date. He is a decent example of why the Cardinals aren't doing as well in 2006 as they were in 2005 though. Last night he played a routine deep flyout into a double and the day before that he forgot how many outs there were, allowing a runner to move up a base. His defense has looked so terrible in 2006 that it's hard to believe he'll be back in 2007. Yes, I remember Taguchi forgetting the number of outs in a game in 2005, but of course he threw that runner out. That's the way 2005 went. The Cardinals haven't had those little things go their way in 2006, and the lesson I'm taking from that is not to draw conclusions about the team's character or LaRussa's genius from "little things."

• So let's look at the big things. Even after yesterday's flailing against the dreaded soft-tossing lefty, the Cardinals remain on pace to score 800 runs, a mere 5 runs below their 2005 total. It doesn't feel that way, does it? Even bigger than that, Baseball Prospectus has introduced a new Playoff Odds report based on Elo. Sagarin has been using Elo for his college basketball ratings for years. Anyway, BPro's Elo report has the Cardinals at an 85% probability of making the playoffs. Doesn't feel that way either, does it? The same report says the Astros have caught the Reds.

The View

I've been to the new park only once and honestly had a better seat than I would've had for the same price in the old park. The new park has a nice view of the city, which obviously the old one lacked, and on the field it plays pretty fair, which is a positive. So I've been a little bit confused about some of the whining about the new park. Yeah, it's a mallpark with a hyper-active Build-A-Bear stand, but that's only a distraction if you let it. The press box is way up there, apparently upsetting Bernie Miklasz to no end, but that's not going to matter to me any time soon. So what is it?

CardNilly has documented his troubles, and he paints an ugly picture. It's a rookie park and I can excuse some mistakes as the club and the vendors (and the fans) figure out what needs to be fixed. What's inexcusable is the club ignoring the problem. This isn't a search for a 900-OPS, good-defense, under-30 outfielder. Taking care of the customer just shouldn't be that difficult. If the Cardinals want to keep calling St. Louis baseball heaven, then they've got some work to do. Otherwise Bill DeWitt's in danger of being known as the man who traded away the venerable cookie cutter because it was an old forty.

On the baseball front, after seeing Jason Marquis get lit up again, I got to wondering just how bad Jason Marquis's season is getting. Looking at his Marquis's peripherals, his K-rate has fallen below the pitching equivalent to the Mendoza line of 4.5 K per 9 IP, and of course he leads the league in homers allowed (Josh Beckett, of all people, is the only AL pitcher with more). So let's look at pitcher-seasons with bad K/HR ratios and compare them to Marquis's 2.65; since Marquis just crossed the 150 IP mark, let's set that as a minimum. Bottom Ten since 1955:

Well, that's disappointing. If Marquis is going to pitch horribly, then he could at least chase history. If the season ended today (or if Marquis was DFA'd tomorrow), then Marquis's season would be good for only 73rd since 1955, and Scott Elarton and Carlos DSilva have a shot at being worse. There are a couple of other familiar names further down the list, including Jose Lima, Bob Forsch, Don Newcombe and Milt Pappas in his final season, although many of them were on their last legs.

Marquis de Sad

I didn't see it, but John Rooney and Ricky Horton kept talking about it -- Jason Marquis was hit hard and hit often last night.

According to the ESPN.com box score, in 60 pitches he threw 41 strikes, and if it weren't for double plays in the first and second innings, it could have been a lot worse. Of course, after Jorge Sosa left the mound, it did get a lot worse.

Since Marquis last pitched well (the 8 innings of shutout ball in LA on July 23rd), the three subsequent outings have resulted in the following composite:

12 2/3 IP
26 H
14 R, 11 ER (that's a 7.82 ERA over those 3 games, if you're counting)
2 HR allowed (to make his NL-leading total 26 HR allowed)
7 BB
5 SO
3 L

The AP article that appeared in yesterday's Champaign-Urbana News-Gazette praised Marquis for eating innings during last week's 8-1 loss to Philadelphia, since the bullpen was used up during the 16-8 loss on the previous night. He threw 118 pitches to the Phillies in 6 innings, giving up 4 ER on 9 hits. I guess that's what passes for praiseworthy these days from Cardinals' starting pitching: don't make us use the bullpen extensively two nights in a row.

For those who don't recall, I am a TLR supporter. Doesn't mean I agree with every move, just means I'd rather have him than a whole bunch of managers out there right now. Having said that, here is a plea -- Tony, please skip Jason's next start. Flip him and Wainwright for the next 9 games, give Wainwright Marquis' turn in the rotation next time, let Jason do his side work in relief. I'm not suggesting he be removed from the rotation for good. Just give the guy (and us) a break, and let him come back strong(er) for the next start and build momentum for the playoffs. Surely he is ahead of Weaver in the playoff rotation, yes? (Oops, did I type that out loud?)

And yes, I think the 'Birds are in the playoffs. I don't see Cincinnati catching them - I expect a Cardinals win tonight against Harang and a loss against Arroyo tomorrow. At this point, I think .500 ball from here on out wins the division -- the Cardinals would finish with a stellar 86-76 record if they split the rest of their games, and the Reds have to go 29-20 to top that.

Dan (aka TSF)

Mr. Mulder Goes to Davenport

In case you haven't heard, Quad Cities has a beautiful setting for a ballpark, located literally next to the Mississippi. The Centennial Bridge seems to jut from the 1B side of the park over the river to Illinois. Periodically lefties plunk one in the drink, making the park something of an A-ball answer to PNC or whatever they call PacBell these days. I really wanted to make a trip to QC this year, and with it being August, I was running out of time. The Cardinals gave me a kick in the pants by sending Mark Mulder on a rehab assignment there, so I made the five-hour drive to log what I saw.

The executive summary is that Mulder looked like Swamp Gas. He was throwing fastballs almost exclusively, and when he did throw his curve, it usually ended in the dirt. A smart, reasonably talented hitter like John Mayberry, Jr., could exploit that. On the other hand, Mulder kept everything down, and that may have expanded the bottom of the strike zone a bit. I logged all 57 pitches using the scoreboard radar gun. There's the standard caveat for scoreboard radar guns, although in this case the hometown folks think theirs is a couple of miles per hour slow. That fits with what Baseball America has said about the opposing starter Omar Poveda, who was throwing a couple of mph faster than Mulder, and it fits with what I've read on Chris Perez, who was timed at 92-93 (and he did look faster than that). I'm comfortable saying Mulder was living around 87-88. With all the qualifiers you can think of, based on what I saw, I'd expect Mulder will be a shade ahead of Jeff Suppan, and well ahead of Weaver and Marquis. Keep in mind I'm convinced Suppan is the realization of the Platonic abstract of mediocre (as in average) pitching.

OK, here's my notation:

C = Called Strike
S = Swinging Strike
B = Ball
F = Final
HH = Hit Hard
HE = Hit Easy

1. 84 B, 87 C, 86 S, 83 S (K)
2. 89 F, 88 B, 88 F, 86 B, 83 B, 88 B (BB)
3. 88 HE (543 GIDP)

4. 84 B, 83 B, 84 HH (Mayberry double to RCF)
5. 86 B, 83 C, 79 S, 68 B, 87 B, 84 B (BB)
6. 87 F, 78 B, 83 B, 86 HE (5U tag, then throwing error to first)
7. 86 B, 87 C, 86 HE (3U, run scored)
8. 86 B, 87 F, 85 B, 87 HE (3U)

9. 87 C, 82 HE (7)
10. 84 B, 84 B, 83 HH (7)
11. 86 C, 86 F, 67 B, 69 B (ugh), 84 F, 82 HE (63)

12. 86 B (where was that, Blue?), 80 F, 76 B, 83 S, 77 HE (Foul 3)
13. 81 C, 76 HH (D8, 400 ft flyout)
14. 86 C, 81 HE (Foul 7)

15. 84 HH (8)
16. 84 C, 82 F, 81 HE (43)
17. 84 HH (HR, ~400 ft bomb to left)
18. 86 HE (43)

You'll notice they were hacking away in the 5th. The "ugh" was prompted by a weird looking delivery on that particular pitch. Otherwise Mulder's much-discussed mechanics looked OK to me. Of course I'm an amateur, and I may have been distracted by that lovely blue belt (picture from the Swing's site). Incidentally Mulder wore his pants long; what a weird symbol of status.

Bryan Anderson caught Mulder. He's a decent prospect thanks to his bat, and while his glove has had iffy reviews (~13 passed balls, last time I checked), he had a solid game today. Back when Ankiel was having his problems, the Cardinals sent him wherever Yadier Molina was catching. At the time the point was to help Ankiel, but in retrospect it probably helped Molina just as much. At the very least Anderson clearly was enjoying this opportunity to work with a big-time pitcher in a real game.

Eight is Enough

Continuing on the theme about the pitching, the Cardinals have completed exactly two-thirds of the season. That lends itself to some easy comparison versus the prior season totals. I'll borrow from Lee Sinins and look at run-saved above average (RSAA), assuming average is around 4.5 runs per 9 innings. For even more kicks, I'll look at runs saved above replacement level (RSAR), assuming replacement level is 6.0 runs per 9 innings. I'll pro-rate 2006 to an entire season by simply multiplying by 1.5. I'm going to group the relievers into closer, right-handers and left-handers.

The starting rotation has been a disaster and the lefty specialists haven't been much better. The right-handed setup men have sorta maintained their value, but they're on pace to pitch almost 50% more innings than in 2005 (223.7 IP thus far in 2006 versus 230 IP in all of 2005). While Isringhausen also is on pace for a few extra innings, he's not the problem either, as his 2005 run performance was unsustainably excellent.

Boom

Did you know that the Cardinals are on pace to score 799 runs? That's just 6 runs fewer than a year ago. They're also on pace to allow 787 runs, and that's only 153 runs more than last year. Um, maybe "only" isn't the right word there. I'm sticking to my story that the pitching talent isn't all that different from a year ago, but questions must be raised.

A couple months back I mentioned Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness, which is an evil, evil book for me, because it appealed to schadenfreude towards Wall Street traders who "blow up." How they blow up is interesting in this context though. According to Taleb, these traders make all kinds of money using models based on historical data. Then one day they walk into work, something happens that never happened before, and that day ends with an escort from security showing them the exit. Taleb thinks the storm could've been avoided with a broader logical analysis.

Tonight's game featured a thorough and diverse meltdown from Cardinals pitchers against a team that's playing for nothing. I'm starting to think the problem with the Cardinals pitching staff is the bland sameness to the group. The non-Carpenter starters (including neo-Reyes) have all thrown around 90 mph fastballs and have a predilection for the groundball. They don't really trust their stuff, especially when they have two-strike counts. The non-Wainwright relievers do more or less the same thing, while throwing a couple of miles per hour harder. None of the non-Wainwright relievers have (or had) killer breaking pitches, except maybe Tyler Johnson, but he can't throw strikes. While individually their average-ness might work, putting them all together sets them up to fall like dominoes as they did against the Phillies. Maybe it took three seasons for the rest of the majors to get the dominoes aligned, I don't know.

Changes will be made, even in August. While I still find the logic behind the Jeff Weaver acquisition sound, he's a long way from usefulness. The walk to the goon pitcher should seal Weaver's fate. Much will be learned of Jason Marquis when he goes Thursday. He's been in this position before, with the previous starters getting blitzed and the bullpen tired, and he's turned in some thoroughly ugly performances. Games like Thursday's are why I follow baseball in August.