As the Ronnie Belliard Turns

So, I'm sure everyone's heard by now about our good friend Ronnie Belliard's legal difficulties. Belliard had a sordid affair with a young lady, who supposedly ended up pregnant. The rest is pure soap opera genius:

Laura Edwards and the athlete had an "encounter" on Sept. 29 and she left messages for him in late October or early November. He had a friend call back. That friend's message was returned by George Edwards, who met with the friend and said his daughter was pregnant and wanted money.

The friend offered several thousand dollars. Later in November, a sports agent worked out a deal to pay $25,000 for a paternity test, and $125,000 more if the child was the athlete's.

Oh, the life of a professional athlete. Knock 'em up and pay 'em off. Things went awry with that little plan, however, as the father of the young lady decided that Ronnie's $150k payoff wasn't enough. So he got served with an extortion charge, and the whole thing gets thrown out into the public arena. Yippee!

Belliard, incidentally, went 0-for-4 with a K on September 30. Must've been a hell of an "encounter".

Some More Of This Fantasy Stuff: Cards Fantasy Preview

Once again, I return to the fantasy baseball realm. This time, however, it's to sift through our beloved Redbirds to see which are worth your fantasy buck and, well... which aren't. It's tough to correctly evaluate your favorite teams' players from a fantasy perspective (I think that's how I ended up with 7 Orioles on my "A-team" roster last year), but I'll do my best. Again, the previous disclaimer says I'm no expert, but hey, you get what you pay for.

I'll break down the 25-man roster (and more), position-by-position, below.

Players on the Cards' presumed 25-man roster are listed here. Their age and 2006 stats in a 5 & 5 league follow, along with select others that I like to use to further evaluate my team.

CATCHERS:
Yadier Molina, age 24, 461 PA, .216/29/6/49/1, 54 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career
Gary Bennett, age 35, 170 PA, .223/13/4/22/0, 56 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career

Oh, Yady. His awesome postseason (.358/.424/.547) screams small sample size, but it also provides a glimpse of what Yady might actually be able to do at the plate if he didn't give away at-bats at times to focus on being a great Defensive Catcher in the La Russa mold. His OPS+ has actually decreased every year since he entered the league, and he's still only 24 in 2007 - so I see no reason why he shouldn't improve on his 2006 season. How much unfortunately depends on Yady himself, whether he stays healthy, and whether he gets off to a better start. His career OPS in March and April is .388; his worst other calendar month is .626, which is only 7 hundredths below his career average. If he can get off to a postseason-like start, it might actually motivate Yady to focus on his offense as well as his defense. He's been durable, and was sixth among catchers in the NL in plate appearances in 2006 despite missing a few games in the middle of the year. (Unfortunately, most AL catchers average more thanks to the DH; I usually stay away from NL catchers peronally.) So... if everything goes right, I wouldn't be shocked to see a .290/40/12/60/0 season out of him, which would be worth a pick in the (very) later rounds or a pickup off the waiver wire if you have a Johnny Estrada-type (i.e., injury-prone) as your starter. Yady won't score any runs or steal any bases because he's slow and bats 8th, but he could get enough PAs with men on base to generate a lot of very cheap RBIs with a decent average and a few extra HR. If he repeats his 2006 numbers, however, he has no value.

Bennett has no value, even if Molina is injured.

FIRST BASEMEN
Albert Pujols, age 27, 634 PA, .331/119/49/137/7, 180 OPS+ in 2006, 171 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan, age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

King Albert should go first overall in every league that isn't extremely pitching-heavy. His only concern is a slowly increasing fragility; his 143 games played in 2006 was a career low. Plantar fasciitis and an eerie abdominal strain have weighed him down the past two seasons, but he has yet to show it in his performance. His slugging percentage and HR rate in 2006 were both career highs; he would've easily posted his first 50-HR season if he'd had a few more games to do so. I see no reason he shouldn't finally do it in 2007 if he stays healthy, with incredible numbers all across the board.

Duncan and Spiezio both played 10+ games at 1B in '06, which makes them both eligible in standard Yahoo leagues. Duncan is an interesting case, although he's probably more valuable as an OF than a 1B. I'll discuss his case more in that section. Barring several major injuries, Spiezio won't get enough ABs to be a factor.

SECOND BASEMEN
Adam Kennedy, age 31, 503 PA, .273/50/4/55/16, 90 OPS+ in 2006, 91 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

Kennedy comes back to the Cards after seven years in Anaheim thanks to being part of the Jim Edmonds trade after the 1999 season. He very rarely hits for power, and typically batted ninth in Anaheim so he didn't drive in or score very many runs. What he does is hit for average (sometimes) and steals a few bases. His best fantasy season, which took place in the Halos' championship season of 2002, saw Kennedy hit .312 and steal 17 bases. That's not much, and that would probably be a best-case scenario in St. Louis. I'd say he's not even worth drafting at the moment despite a fairly weak 2B pool (which, as I mentioned in a previous post, makes Chase Utley an extremely valuable guy to have). However, if you're looking for a guy to fill a roster spot for a couple weeks to fill an injury or while a Howie Kendrick or Dan Uggla type encounters a bit of a sophomore slump, you could do worse off the waiver wire, especially if he keeps that average over .300.

Miles had his best season in 2006, which obviously is saying very little. If you'd have told me a year ago that Aaron Miles saw 471 plate appearances for the '06 Cards, I'd have said you were crazy. And it could've been more if Ronnie Belliard hadn't shown up. Despite his starting gig, Miles probably wasn't worth a roster spot last year, and he definitely shouldn't be this year as a utility man.

SHORTSTOPS
David Eckstein, age 32, 552 PA, .292/68/2/23/7, 81 OPS+ in 2006, 88 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

David Eckstein's Cardinal debut in 2005 was arguably the best season of his career, but his 2006 was a struggle. After hitting .300 through the first half of the season, injuries and inconsistency pushed Eck's numbers down to what amounts to possibly his worst fantasy season. For a leadoff man, he doesn't score a whole lot of runs or steal a whole lot of bases. And he certainly doesn't hit for power. What he does, though, is get on base. His two seasons as a Cardinal produced OBPs of .363 and .350. So, perhaps he's more valuable to the Cards than he would be to anybody's fantasy team. Still, he'll probably get drafted fairly high thanks to two straight All-Star appearances and the whole World Series MVP thing.

As mentioned before, Miles has zero fantasy value as a utilityman.

THIRD BASEMEN
Scott Rolen, age 32, 594 PA, .296/94/22/95/7, 127 OPS+ in 2006, 129 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

Rolen struggled down the stretch in '06 but still finished with numbers pretty much on par with his career averages. He'll be a top-five or so fantasy 3B, but there's a lot of ways you can get good, cheap/late round players at this position that aren't a whole lot worse. Think Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Teahen, etc. Those guys are health risks, but so is Rolen. If he can put up numbers similar to '06, he's worth a 6th round pick or so. If he doesn't stay healthy, however, it could get ugly - and not just with his stats, after what happened in last year's postseason between Rolen and La Russa. Spiezio would be a decent roster addition if Rolen was hurt, but he'd have to put up numbers similar to his '06 to be worth starting in anything but the deepest of leagues.

OUTFIELDERS
Juan Encarnacion (CF/RF), age 31, 598 PA, .278/74/19/79/6, 94 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Preston Wilson (LF/RF), age 32, 537 PA, .263/58/17/72/12, 84 OPS+ in 2006, 103 OPS+ career
Jim Edmonds (CF), age 37, 408 PA, .257/90/19/70/4, 111 OPS+ in 2006, 137 OPS+ career
So Taguchi (LF/CF), age 37, 361 PA, .266/46/2/31/11, 79 OPS+ in 2006, 90 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio (LF), 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan (LF/RF), age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career

What a mess. The lack of clarity about how many plate appearances each one of these guys will get definitely jumbles the fantasy picture here. Edmonds is clearly the best of any of these options and will be the starting CF when healthy, but his health is a concern coming off his fewest games played as a Cardinal. Encarnacion is durable and will likely be guaranteed most of the starts in RF, but he's really not that good. Duncan surprised last year, and could get to 30 HR this season - but he won't play against lefties, and probably will lose a few late-game ABs to Taguchi or even Wilson as defensive replacements. 500 PAs wouldn't be a stretch, though, if he produces close to his 2006 level. But if Duncan slumps, La Russa might have a quicker trigger for a young player like him than a vet like Encarnacion. Wilson will likely start for Duncan or maybe even Edmonds against lefties, but barring a long-term injury to one of the three current starters or major struggles from Duncan, won't get enough PAs to be a worthwhile fantasy contributor. Taguchi provided slightly-below league-average offense in 2004 and 2005 off the Cardinals' bench, but struggled hitting for power in '06 before hitting a big HR in Game 2 of the NLCS. He won't play enough in 2007 to make a fantasy impact. Spiezio will get even less ABs as an OF, but could provide some value as an OF or 3B with a long-term injury to Scott Rolen.

STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Carpenter, age 32, 221 2/3 IP, 15/0/184/3.09/1.07, 143 ERA+ in 2006, 112 ERA+ career
Mark Mulder, age 29, 93 1/3 IP, 6/0/50/7.14/1.70, 62 ERA+ in 2006, 109 ERA+ career
Kip Wells, age 30, 44 1/3 IP, 2/0/20/6.50/1.85, 70 ERA+ in 2006, 99 ERA+ career
Anthony Reyes, age 25, 85 1/3 IP, 5/0/72/5.06/1.38, 87 ERA+ in 2006, 92 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career
Ryan Franklin, age 34, 77 1/3 IP, 6/0/43/4.54/1.54, 103 ERA+ in 2006, 100 ERA+ career
Brad Thompson, age 25, 56 2/3 IP, 1/0/32/3.34/1.38, 132 ERA+ in 2006, 138 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career

Again, a bit of a mess, but there's a bit less value here than among the outfielders. Carpenter will be a stud, as mentioned previously. Frankly, there's only a handful of pitchers I'd rather have on my roster: Santana, Peavy, Webb, Oswalt, maybe one or two others. Aside from Carp, however, there's no other sure things here. Reyes and Wainwright have lots of potential, but both will likely be given a short leash by La Russa, restricting their innings and quite possibly win totals. Wainwright's role is still somewhat up in the air, but assuming Jason Isringhausen is healthy to begin the season (and all indications are saying he will be) and given a bullpen that appears fairly deep, Wainwright will start. Wainwright (along with Looper or Thompson if they win a rotation slot) also will likely not be eligible as a SP until he clears the minimum number of starts, since he didn't start a game in 2006. Mulder is the only other Cardinal starter who will have any fantasy value, and that is up for debate. He had shoulder surgery late in the 2006 season and won't pitch until June or July. Still, the Cards signed him for two years. Given the struggles of other recent shoulder-surgery patients, the likelihood of Mulder coming back strong this season is pretty low. Still, he'll almost surely be given the chance to make his 20 starts or so, and with a solid team he might get you a few cheap wins off the waiver wire (or late in the draft). Thompson and especially Looper are intriguing (at least to me) if they gained a starting job, but that's not likely. But they, or Franklin if he wins the fifth spot, will likely give way to Mulder when he returns in July, so take their rotation spot with a grain of salt. Franklin is ultimately worthless, even if he does win the fifth starter's job.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Jason Isringhausen, age 34, 58 1/3, 4/33/52/3.55/1.46, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 117 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career

It's pretty straightforward here: Isringhausen will likely be healthy and ready to start the 2007 season after offseason surgery, so he will be given the majority of save opportunities. Wainwright shined in relief in 2006, but appears to be in line for a starting gig. Looper is probably the de facto backup closer if Wainwright moves into the rotation and could pick up a stray few . Others such as Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney are intriguing possibilities in the deepest of leagues that involve middle relief, but likely won't contribute under standard league formats.

So there it is. Tony La Russa's teams don't provide a whole lot of fantasy value outside of the stars since he likes to control his matchups so much, but there are a few sleepers here. Edmonds could bounce back from an ugly 2006, Molina could finally figure it out with the bat, and Wainwright and/or Reyes could break out as a starter. So choose wisely, and good luck to your fantasy teams in 2007.