2007 Projections: Reyes of Sunshine

Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to state that I have never seen Anthony Reyes smile. Not once. Even on his Topps baseball card from last season - a non-action shot, mind you - he looks as stoic as a mannequin. It's almost creepy. He's a great young pitcher and I have no reason to believe he isn't an upstanding guy, but please, Anthony - look like you're having a little bit of fun out there.

That aside, what we saw from him in Game 1 of the World Series in Detroit was beautiful. Just absolutely perfect. It makes me wonder how he only put up a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts in 2006, especially after such a sparkling minor league career. Well, the answer is twofold: walks and home runs. Anthony got tagged for the highest walk and home run rates of his professional career in his major-league portion of 2006. These struggles have been explained by a few different theories: 1) fatigue coming into the second half of a season in which he set a career high in innings, 2) he still continues to struggle with the two-seam fastball the organization continues to insist he throw, and 3) his mechanics are out of whack. Whatever the reason, will the trend continue into 2007? Let's take a look, in the same manner we took a look at Chris Duncan's 2007 projection, after the jump.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched".

Anthony Reyes
age 24 (2006): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 17 HR, 34 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Bob Sebra (1st overall)
age 24 (1986): 17 G (13 GS), 91 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66 K
age 25 (1987): 36 G (27 GS), 177 1/3 IP, 4.42 ERA (95 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 15 HR, 67 BB, 156 K
2. James Baldwin (2nd overall)
age 24 (1996): 28 G (28 GS), 169 IP, 4.42 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 24 HR, 57 BB, 127 K
age 25 (1997): 32 G (32 GS), 200 IP, 5.27 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.44 WHIP, 19 HR, 83 BB, 140 K
3. Tommy Greene (3rd overall)
age 24 (1991): 36 G (27 GS), 207 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 19 HR, 66 BB, 154 K
age 25 (1992): 13 G (12 GS), 64 1/3 IP, 5.32 ERA (66 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 5 HR, 34 BB, 39 K
4. Paul Moskau (5th overall)
age 24 (1978): 26 G (25 GS), 145 IP, 3.97 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP, 17 HR, 57 BB, 88 K
age 25 (1979): 21 G (15 GS), 106 1/3 IP, 3.89 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.49 WHIP, 9 HR, 51 BB, 58 K
5. Brett Tomko (6th overall)
age 24 (1997): 22 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 3.43 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.21 WHIP, 14 HR, 47 BB, 95 K
age 25 (1998): 34 G (34 GS), 210 2/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 22 HR, 64 BB, 162 K
6. Paul Rigdon (7th overall)
age 24 (2000): 17 G (16 GS), 87 1/3 IP, 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 18 HR, 35 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2001): 15 G (15 GS), 79 1/3 IP, 5.79 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.66 WHIP, 13 HR, 46 BB, 49 K
7. Albie Lopez (8th overall)
age 24 (1996): 13 G (10 GS), 62 IP, 6.39 ERA (77 ERA+), 1.65 WHIP, 14 HR, 22 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1997): 37 G (6 GS), 76 2/3 IP, 6.93 ERA (68 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, 11 HR, 40 BB, 63 K
8. Doug Drabek (9th overall)
age 24 (1987): 29 G (28 GS), 176 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 22 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
age 25 (1988): 33 G (32 GS), 219 1/3 IP, 3.08 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 21 HR, 50 BB, 127 K
9. Gil Meche (11th overall)
age 24 (2003): 32 G (32 GS), 186 1/3 IP, 4.59 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 30 HR, 63 BB, 130 K
age 25 (2004): 23 G (23 GS), 217 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA (86 ERA+), 1.46 WHIP, 21 HR, 47 BB, 99 K
10. Eric Rasmussen (13th overall)
age 24 (1976): 43 G (17 GS), 150 1/3 IP, 3.53 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, 10 HR, 54 BB, 76 K
age 25 (1977): 34 G (34 GS), 233 IP, 3.48 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 24 HR, 63 BB, 120 K

In case you're curious, the omitted two were:
4th overall: Ron Schueler, 1973-74 (age 25-26)
10th overall: Ray Washburn, 1963-64 (age 25-26)
12th overall: Don Cardwell, 1960-61 (made 38 starts in '61, too many for accurate comparison)

Averages:
age 24: 26 G (22 GS), 140 IP, 4.07 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 1.14 HR/9, 3.03 BB/9, 2.04 K/BB
age 25: 28 G (23 GS), 149 1/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB
Reyes in 2006 (rate stats included): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 7.59 K/9, 1.79 HR/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Reyes in 2007: 29 G (29 GS), 168 1/3 IP, 3.81 ERA. 7.54 K/9, 1.18 HR/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB

Notes:
• The thing that stuck out the most was that the majority of these guys put up worse seasons at age 25 than at age 24. Most increased their workload (at the major league level, at least), but only three of the ten had a better ERA+ at age 25 than at age 24. And those three (Moskau, Drabek, and Rasmussen) all had only modest increases. In terms of won-lost record, this sample fared much worse in their age-25 seasons as well. I didn't include those numbers in the lists above (since these things aren't entirely performance-related), but overall this group posted a record of 88-75 at age 24, while dropping to 78-92 at age 25.

• Not only is this a list of guys who struggled at age 25, there are some ugly names among the more recent guys. Brett Tomko? Albie Lopez? Paul Rigdon? James Baldwin? Gil Meche? Yes, Meche got a huge contract this offseason, but ugh. Lopez was terrible, Rigdon disappeared (more later), Tomko never got any better and became a reliever, like Baldwin, and Meche hasn't had a league-average season since. It's not an inspiring group.

• Nobody on the list really seemed to have a season similar to Reyes' at age 24. Perhaps Rigdon, but his major and minor league K rates were far worse than Reyes', and I don't . None of these guys, actually, put up the K's in the minors or majors quite like Anthony. Makes you wonder why they're comparables. But none of the ones mentioned above who put up a better ERA+ in their age-25 season appear to compare to Reyes. A stud performance like Drabek's would be a nice bar to set, as Anthony has proven to have even better command, but he has to prove he will be more consistent with said command, in addition to his health, at the major league level.

• As stated before, Rigdon is a bit of a mystery. He didn't play in the majors past 2001, and the last news I saw of him in any team's system was his being assigned to the Red Sox's minor league camp in March 2004. He evidently had some, uh, involuntary plastic surgery done back in '01, but that didn't seem like it would've been career-ending. It's spooky seeing a guy end his professional baseball career before the age of 30, especially since he was pretty decent in small doses after he got sent down to the minors. I wonder what happened to him.

• PECOTA has a lot more faith in Anthony than his comparable players have justified. The projection looks for Anthony to keep his K rate slightly below his career level in the major leagues, but more importantly it believes that his career high walk and home run rates from 2006 are fluky based on solid rates from his minor-league days. And that translates to a solid ERA of 3.81. I think we'll all take that, as many are not so bullish on Reyes, but it's nice to know that the computer models are on our side. And unlike Chris Duncan, playing time shouldn't be a huge issue - if he is healthy and remotely effective, he could get to 200 innings if La Russa decides he doesn't have faith in what appears to be a shaky bullpen.

To conclude, I'm less optimistic about Reyes than PECOTA is. And it doesn't have anything to do with the comparables. Anthony pitched 181 1/3 IP total in 2006, far above his previous career high of 140. As linked before, there are concerns about the velocity on his fastball decreasing over the past year, and I am in the camp that if there was a decrease, it was probably fatigue-related. My bold prediction is this: if Anthony can physically handle the workload that will likely be demanded of him in 2007, I see no reason he won't improve on his ERA from 2006. But if he can't, and he is continually thrown to the wolves despite only throwing 88-90 mp on his 4-seam fastball... it could be ugly. So let's hope Anthony throws free and easy this season... and maybe, just maybe, cracks a smile.

Open Thread: He's Already Pulled Over, He Can't Pull Over Any More

So, yeah, everyone's heard about it by now. And plenty of people, both inside and outside of Cardinal Nation have put in their two cents on the matter. But I implore you, the loyal readers of The Birdwatch: what do you think?

My opinion: hell yeah, he made a mistake. Should he be punished? Yes, and the state of Florida will take care of that. Should we judge him for this mistake? No. Why? He's human. People make mistakes - and celebrity or not, the decent thing to do is to forgive. It's obvious Tony is an upstanding guy. He has a clean record into his 60s, for God's sakes - what percentage of the population can say that? He knows he screwed up. I'd be willing to wager just about anything that he doesn't do it again, because he's just that kind of guy. He hates to fail his team on the field, and when he does he works his ass off to make up for it. What makes you think he wouldn't do the same in a situation like this? I say don't worry, Tony - here at The Birdwatch, we've (or at least I've) got your back.

UPDATE: Bill McClellan has a nice article on the topic as well.

And amazingly enough, that isn't the only Cardinal-related controversy of the week. Yikes. It's tough being on top.

Program note: Reyes and Wainwright projections to come... this weekend!

Death, Taxes, And...

...Mark Prior and Kerry Wood on the disabled list. Seriously, hasn't that happened every year since 2003? It's up for debate as to the cause of these injuries, but I'm in the camp that all those 120+ pitch outings back in '03 certainly can't have helped things. The Cubs haven't won anything since Prior and Wood went down, and I have a hard time believing they will this year without either of them pitching remotely effectively. Ted Lilly? Jason Marquis? Yeah, good luck with that.

Thanks, Dusty; your gift just keeps on giving!

2007 Projections: St. Louis Runs On Duncan

Photo courtesy Rick Bowmer, AP

Way back in the early days of The Birdwatch, I took on the challenge of projecting the performance of the Cards' 2005 starting outfield based on their ten most similar players from baseball-reference.com. Those three outfielders were united by the fact that they were all rather old, and faced inevitable statistical declines. This time around, however, I'm going to take a look at three key players to the success of the 2007 Cardinals: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, and Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, these guys are too new to the majors to have similar players on B-R, so I've resorted to the glory that is PECOTA for their comparables. Yes, PECOTA has their own nifty projections, and I'll take a look at those after I'm done to determine their level of optimism.

So without further ado, let's start this bad boy off by taking a look at Chris Duncan (pictured above), the Cards' probable starting left fielder - after the jump, of course.

A bit about the method to my madness:

PECOTA does things a little differently than Bill James (whose formula B-R.com uses to compute similarity scores). For one, there's nothing in the database that computes similarity scores based on age - it's based on season-by-season progression. So, for example, Duncan's career going into 2007 is deemed to be most similar to Mike Epstein's career going into 1969. Since both Epstein and Duncan were both coming off their age-25 seasons, I consider it a viable comparison. However, Duncan's third-most similar career was Jason Thompson's going into 1980. However, Thompson was coming off his age-24 season going into 1980. Because of the age difference, I don't see Thompson to be as comparable a player as say, Michael Tucker going into 1997. Tucker was Duncan's 12th-most comparable player, but he was also coming off his age-25 season. My point with all of this? Instead of using PECOTA's 10 most comparables overall, I used the 10 highest comparables at the same age as Duncan (and on later projections, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright). It's a touchy distinction to make, but I feel as though it's relevant for this particular study. Also of note: when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I just weighted it based on plate appearances - but I didn't really want to go back and look up league averages for 30 different years and weight them all just to have the final product turn out pretty much the same, if not exactly the same. Forgive me, I'm lazy. Anyway, here's the group I ended up with:

Chris Duncan
age 25 (1968): 90 G, 314 PA, .293/.363/.589, 141 OPS+
age 26 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-26 Season
1. Mike Epstein (1st overall)
age 25 (1968): 123 G, 448 PA, .234/.338/.366, 117 OPS+
age 26 (1969): 131 G, 500 PA, .278/.414/.551, 175 OPS+
2. Carlos Pena (2nd overall)
age 25 (2003): 131 G, 516 PA, .248/.332/.440, 107 OPS+
age 26 (2004): 142 G, 561 PA, .241/.338/.472, 112 OPS+
3. Eric Anthony (6th overall)
age 25 (1993): 145 G, 539 PA, .249/.319/.397, 94 OPS+
age 26 (1994): 79 G, 288 PA, .237/.297/.412, 80 OPS+
4. Ben Grieve (7th overall)
age 25 (2001): 154 G, 639 PA, .264/.372/.387, 102 OPS+
age 26 (2002): 136 G, 561 PA, .251/.353/.432, 108 OPS+
5. Ryan Klesko (8th overall)
age 25 (1996): 153 G, 602 PA, .282/.364/.530, 127 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 143 G, 522 PA, .261/.334/.490, 111 OPS+
6. Ron Swoboda (9th overall)
age 25 (1969): 109 G, 375 PA, .235/.326/.361, 91 OPS+
age 26 (1970): 115 G, 289 PA, .233/.340/.392, 96 OPS+
7. Lee Thomas (10th overall)
age 25 (1961): 132 G, 345 PA, .285/.353/.491, 114 OPS+
age 26 (1962): 160 G, 439 PA, .290/.355/.467, 123 OPS+
8. Ryan Langerhans (11th overall)
age 25 (2005): 128 G, 373 PA, .267/.348/.426, 99 OPS+
age 26 (2006): 131 G, 369 PA, .241/.350/.378, 90 OPS+
9. Michael Tucker (12th overall)
age 25 (1996): 108 G, 393 PA, .260/.346/.442, 101 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 138 G, 554 PA, .283/.347/.445, 105 OPS+
10. Paul O'Neill (13th overall)
age 25 (1988): 145 G, 533 PA, .252/.306/.414, 102 OPS+
age 26 (1989): 117 G, 480 PA, .276/.346/.446, 123 OPS+

In case you're curious, the 3rd through 5th overall were:
Jason Thompson, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Willie Aikens, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Mel Hall, 1985-86 (age 24-25)

Averages:
age 25: 133 G, 432 PA, .259/.341/.429, 106 OPS+ (16 HR, 60 RBI)
age 26: 129 G, 417 PA, .263/.350/.455, 115 OPS+ (18 HR, 65 RBI)
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Duncan: 452 PA, .273/.356/.488 (20 HR, 65 RBI)

The concensus is, as it should be, a slight improvement from age-25 to age-26. This sample, in fact, made less plate appearances on average in their age-26 seasons, due to factors ranging from injuries to strike years, but produced more raw HR/RBI numbers - most likely thanks to a better lineup spot and increased production.

Of note:
• The biggest gainer on the list was clearly Epstein, posting an oh-so-pretty .278/.414/.551 line for the 2nd-generation Washington Senators in '69, which translates to a 175 OPS+ thanks to a pitcher-friendly era and park effect. I drool a little when I look at his 85/99 BB/K ratio from that season, but playing under Ted Williams and with the likes of Frank "Hondo" Howard might've helped his approach a little bit. Also, he probably benefitted greatly from the increased hitting environment following the Year of the Pitcher in '68; the league average OPS in his parks went up 50 points in '69 from the previous year. If Duncan can put up a .414 OBP batting in the 2-hole ahead of a healthy Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds, the Cards would score a ton of runs despite the Juan Encarnacion-sized hole in the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, I think a year like that is hopelessly optimistic to expect out of him.

• The player who had the most similar season to Duncan's 2006 in his age-25 campaign was probably Klesko - and his percentages dropped across the board the next year. Still, at .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in '97, his 111 OPS+ age-26 season was better than a lot of guys on this list. I wouldn't be too upset if Duncan duplicated those numbers in '07.

• PECOTA is higher on Duncan than the comparable player averages are. In fact, in terms of raw offense, PECOTA even considers him to be the Cardinals' best outfielder in 2007, narrowly outVORPing Jim Edmonds 22.5 to 22.3.

• Playing time is a big factor in projecting what Duncan will do in 2007. Based on his past struggles against left-handed pitching (.204/.250/.429 career) and his liabilities on defense, it's hard to see La Russa playing him against any lefties at all, or late in games during which the Cardinals have a lead. Thus, 500 PA is a bit of a stretch. Even PECOTA's 452 PA projection might not be attained if Chris struggles in April and May - we all know Tony can have a short leash with young hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals also have a glut of outfielders, with Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, John Rodriguez, and even Scott Spiezio all on the 40-man roster. Barring a trade or long-term injury, all of those guys will have a role and get their plate appearances - which lessens the opportunities for Duncan.

• I was moderately surprised not to see St. Louis native Ryan Howard on this list; he wasn't even in Duncan's top twenty comparables. The major league numbers of the two players are virtually identical through their age-25 campaigns, but upon further review, it appears Howard had much gaudier numbers in AA and AAA, which PECOTA takes into account. The other clear difference: the Phillies traded Jim Thome to make way for Howard to be the full-time starter at first base going into the 2006 season, allowing him to get 700 PA without any major threats from the bench. As mentioned above, Duncan could repeat his 2006 rates and still only get 500 PA thanks to La Russa's obsession with playing the matchups.

In conclusion, I think Chris Duncan is an interesting case. (Of course I can use that cliché, dammit, why else would I write about him?) My personal opinion is that the PECOTA projection will probably be closer - he's a big kid, and I don't see him losing the pop in his bat overnight. True, a few of those home runs might clank off the wall as doubles, but I don't see him slugging below .500 if he keeps the batting average up. I trust he'll see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of the big boppers (yet another cliché, but it's true), so assuming he remains as selective as he was last year at times, he could probably manage a decent OBP. But I have a feeling that last year's numbers are quite possibly a best-case scenario. Worst case? He bats .200 through April and May and continues to struggle in left field, and sees his playing time decrease to the point that he's just a left-handed power bat off the bench. Still, if I were a betting man (NCAA Tournament pools aside), I'd take the over when it comes to his PECOTA projection. Let the kid play, let's see what he can do.

Dipping Into the Pool

Not to act too much like a mainstream journalist or anything, but I came across this post on Al's Ramblings and had to repeat it here:

I'm going to paraphrase Bob Uecker from this weekend.

"If you're scoring at home to spring training games, you must be out of your mind."

That's not to suggest that spring training and spring training games have no importance, but it certainly does suggest that you cannot assume a consistent level of competition, talent, and effort throughout.

How [uh, Chris Duncan] progresses defensively is more noteworthy than who is leading the team in batting average, for example. Relax, enjoy the games, and pay attention to the little things players are working on instead of the big things, like who won or lost.

As mentioned before, I don't really get into spring training. The season's a month away, there is way too much Brian Falkenborg than I'm comfortable with watching, and there's college basketball on anyway. The big event this week is Selection Sunday.

However, it is time to prepare for the upcoming season, so we here at The Birdwatch have done a little housekeeping. The links on the left sidebar have been updated, at long last; many had gone idle in the two years since that had last been done. (Note: if you have a blog or site that you would like us to link to, feel free to drop me an email.) In addition, this particular "journalist" is going to do his utmost best to post at least once a week until the season starts, and up that to twice a week during the season. Some forthcoming posts include:

• Chris Duncan projection using the comparative analysis shown here
• Anthony Reyes projection
• Adam Wainwright projection
• Minute Maid Park review
• Wrigley Field review/photographic essay (depending on my travel schedule)
• Something steroid-related (since it's hard to avoid the subject)

So strap yourselves in, people, it's going to be a fun year.

I Wish I Was As Fortunate, As Fortunate As Me

One of the biggest differences between me and the stereotypical baseball fan rears its ugly head around this time every year: I just can't get excited about spring training. Yes, pitchers and catchers reported on Valentine's Day, and full-squad workouts began soon thereafter, but all that means nothing to me. The only day marked I mean, it's not like these guys take this stuff too seriously anyway. And these nationally televised spring training games - who watches this stuff? Is a Chris Narveson start that appealing to the viewing public?

Still, even though I don't really want to watch the Kyle Snyders of the world facing Rick Ankiel all day long, that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about baseball. There's fantasy drafts, roster moves, far-flung rumors, plenty of intrigue. Everyone has an opinion about what their team should or shouldn’t be doing. Even yours truly, anti-spring training extraordinaire, has to get up on a soapbox every once in awhile. And with the Cards, there’s plenty to talk about. So here’s my wish list for the next month and, well, beyond:

1) Trade Juan Freaking Encarnacion. I don’t care if he gets the Tino treatment, where we pay some of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs named Evan Rust, but he just needs to go. With Chris Duncan, Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds, John Rodriguez, So Taguchi, and even Scott Spiezio on the roster (not to mention Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker), there’d be someone around capable of taking his at-bats and putting up at least Juan’s .280/.315/.430 line. Above average defense is not worth that big a hole in the lineup. And none of those guys, with the exception of Edmonds, is going to make anywhere close to $11.5 million in 2007-08. This one's really a holdover from last year - I couldn't stand looking at the guy throughout most of 2006, and I just don't want to have to repeat that in '07.
2) Remain flexible with Adam Wainwright. A scenario, if I may: Jason Isringhausen declares his hip pain-free throughout spring training and pitches effectively. Braden Looper turns into Kent Bottenfield circa 1999 and wins the fifth starter’s job. Wainwright continues to pitch effectively – he pitched three scoreless innings in his first outing the other day – and also ends up in the rotation. On a cold night in early April, however, Isringhausen plants and slips, re-aggravating his hip injury and forcing him to the disabled list for two months. What was a decent-looking bullpen could end up in shambles - if La Russa is insistent on keeping guys in the rotation once they’ve earned a slot (at least, I guess, until Mark Mulder comes back), who would become the closer in that situation? Josh Kinney? Brad Thompson? Ryan Franklin (cringe)? I implore you, Tony: at least remain open to the idea of Wainwright returning to the ‘pen in the event of another Isringhausen injury.
3) Don’t rush Mark Mulder back. As bad as Ryan Franklin, Kip Wells, Brad Thompson, Braden Looper, etc., may be, they still may be better than a Mulder that is less than 100%. The recent news regarding Mulder’s mechanics problems has not been encouraging; in addition, there is not a lot of precedent (based on lboros’ fabulous research over at VEB) for pitchers to have immediate success coming off similar shoulder surgeries. So unless the Cards are really desperate (i.e., Looper/Franklin/Thompson is struggling mightily) when Mulder is ready to return in June or July, they would be much better off to let him work out any problems with his mechanics with at least three starts down in Memphis.
4) Everybody just relax. We just won the freaking World Series, people. The last two defending champs disintegrated into giant balls of angst within both the clubhouse, press and the fan base. Let’s not put ourselves through that. Why sweat the small stuff? Like, for example, whether Aaron Miles is getting 150 plate appearances as opposed to 100, who the fifth starter is going to be, or bugging me about the fact that I totally contradicted my first three wishes with this one. Or getting on Tony. I'd say he's earned a season without Cardinal Nation second-guessing him at the very least. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the play of Mr. Pujols and the boys - win or loss - and coast our way through the first season as defending champs in 24 years. We deserve it.