Best catcher not in HOF gets Milwaukee bench coach job

I decided it was time to dust off the cobwebs over here. (VEB's 300-character minimum on diaries had something to do with it too. :-0 )

I figured with my screen name, I had to make some comment about the link below. This guy was one of the best hitters in baseball in the 70s, and I think his attitude will add some toughness and teach some of the Brew Crew youngsters "the right way to play". I think it's comparable to Arizona hiring Kirk Gibson for the 2007 season. Way to go Ted -- glad to have you back in uniform, even if you're not wearing the birds on the bat.

More details here.

TSF

Minor League Road Trip: Homer And The Gang

Don't ask me why I ended up doing something like this last Saturday night - I wasn't in a very good mood that morning, I guess. I felt like I needed to get out of town for a bit. Whatever the reason, I hopped in the car and headed in whatever direction appeared the most appealing at the moment. About eight hours (and a few side trips) later, I ended up driving through downtown Norfolk, Virginia... and it just so happened that the bright lights of Harbor Park intrigued me into stopping to see what was happening there. Sure enough, the AAA Norfolk Tides happened to be playing that night, so I bought a ticket. Then it occured to me: with all the baseball I've seen in my life - hundreds of major league games, plus a few at the college and high school levels - I had never been to a minor league ballgame... thus, I was intrigued as to what I might think of it. Little did I know that I'd end up seeing an exciting game involving a lot of familiar names - and a few names that the Cardinals will likely be getting familiar with soon. And, I thought, this could be the beginning of a fun little feature here on The Birdwatch called Minor League Road Trip; it's an idea I'd toyed with in the past, but never implemented. So I'll probably be reporting on a local minor-league game every few weeks throughout the season. Unfortunately, the Cards don't have many affiliates on the east coast - the Batavia Muckdogs (yes, that's their real name) of the short-season low-A New York-Penn League are probably the closest, and they don't start playing until June. Still, there's tons of minor league teams in a variety of leagues here in the Mid-Atlantic region going on right now, so there's always the option to scout the competition in the form of the other NL Central clubs' prospects - which, as luck would have it, I was able to do last Saturday night in Norfolk.

To read more about last Saturday's game, the highlight of which was the second AAA start by Cincinnati Reds überprospect Homer Bailey, click below.

Bailey was the Reds' first-round draft pick (7th overall) in 2004. After some mediocre seasons in the lowest levels of the minor leagues, he jumped quickly through the Reds' system in 2006 with 138 2/3 IP of 10+ K/9 ball, with a combined ERA of 2.46 in high-A and AA. Coming into the 2007 season, he sported a career strikeout rate of 10.27 K/9; unfortunately, he battled significant enough control problems in '04 to keep his career walk rate slightly above 4.0 BB/9. In his first start with the AAA Louisville Bats, he pitched 5 1/3 good innings against the Toledo Mud Hens after being spotted an early 13-0 lead; the only run was from the only hit, a solo home run by (former Cardinal!) Timo Perez. Still, he walked three batters in that first start and only struck out four, the control problems evident.

Against the Tides on Saturday, Bailey pitched about the same. On a cold, windy night Bailey was lifted after only 5 innings and 90 pitches. The batters were fooled, as he only allowed three hits, none of which were hit terribly hard - but he struggled again with control, posting the same 4/3 K/BB ratio, including putting himself into a sticky situation in the bottom of the fifth inning. With two outs, Bailey walked Tides leadoff hitter Eider Torres, who stole second. Apparently rattled, Bailey also walked Brandon Fahey, bringing up the hot-hitting J.R. House - who frankly, should be playing in Baltimore. House was fooled on a 1-2 curve in the dirt, and tried to check his swing. What followed was one of the stranger plays I've ever seen: Torres broke for third and Fahey broke for second upon seeing the catcher have trouble with the ball, causing distraction enough for a slight hesitation by catcher Dan Conway. After recovering, however, Conway elected to ask for an appeal to first base on the check swing instead of trying to throw . House had anticipated this, however, and was most of the way to first by the time the strikeout was called by the first base ump. Conway attempted to throw out House at first, but was a half-step too late. Still, Bailey got out of the jam by painting the inside corner for a called strike three on the eighth pitch of the at-bat against former Padres minor league masher Jon Knott.

Having never seen him pitch before, what struck me the most about him was the armsy, flailing nature of his delivery. I'm no expert on pitching mechanics so I can't comment on the injury risk, but he appeared to have lots of problems locating pretty much every pitch, as he just looked to be throwing as hard as he could. He hit 94 on the Tides' gun, but consistency of location was a problem. Until he can get the walk rate down a little bit, I don't anticipate him seeing a major-league roster. Still, what he's done is pretty spectacular for a kid who hasn't had his first legal drink (he turns 21 on May 3).

As for the rest of the game, I was amazed at how many names I knew on both rosters. The Bats featured Cardinal World Series nemesis Mark Bellhorn, former Yankee Bubba Crosby, Wayne Krivsky favorite Gary Majewski (who threw fifteen pitches in 1 1/3 innings without allowing a ball hit out of the infield; he looked positively nasty, perhaps his health problems are a thing of the past and he can get back to his 2005 form), as well as former cup-of-coffee-holder and sexual predator Brian Shackelford and Reds hitting prospects Norris Hopper and Joey Votto. The Tides were a little less well known, with the highlights being the aforementioned Fahey, who took over for Brian Roberts in Baltimore in 2006 and stuck as an outfielder, former Twin Terry Tiffee, and former United States Olympian and journeyman reliever Todd Williams. The Bats took an first-inning lead as Tides right fielder Luis Montanez misplayed a ball into a double which resulted in a run. Bellhorn doubled and scored in the fourth to give the Bats a 2-0 lead, but the Tides answered in the bottom half, putting runners on second and third with one out and a run in. Bailey recovered, though, by inducing a pop-up and soft fly ball to get out of the inning. The Tides tied the game off the Bats' bullpen in the seventh, getting an infield single to chase Majewski and then loading the bases with one out thanks to a couple of walks by Jason Kershner before a House sacrifice fly. The Bats took over in the top of the ninth, however; Votto broke the tie with a 2-run triple off losing pitcher Cory Doyne, opening the floodgates for a 6-spot, all with two outs. Kershner pitched a scoreless eighth for the win.

Harbor Park in Norfolk was a very nice ballpark, featuring a fan-friendly concoursewhich allowed views of the entire field and the harbor/river beyond, and not a bad seat in the house with the prices $11 and below, but on a cold night with a stiff breeze blowing straight in from center I couldn't help but spend most of the last three innings on my feet walking the park to get different views. The best parts were the hot pretzel vendors, who heated pretzels on hot coals in front of you and had tons of options for toppings, and the trains that blew their whistle as they periodically went by within view of the right field fence. That sound in twilight automatically makes me think of Roy Hobbs and the Whammer dueling as the trains whistled in the background.

And so begins the Minor League Road Trip series... we'll see where it takes us from here, but all else aside, it was a fun start.

Review: Minute Maid Park

It's hard to believe Minute Maid Park/Enron Field is in its eighth season, but it's true. And despite the fact that in my head, it's a house of horrors for the Cards, they've managed to post a 30-28 regular season record down there in its lifespan. Unfortunately, in the postseason, it hasn't been so rosy; the Astros swept the Cards 3-0 in the 2004 NLCS, and if it wasn't for a certain Brad Lidge-served moon shot by Albert Pujols, they would've been swept 3-0 in the 2005 NLCS as well. Still, that's one win in six postseason games down there, which is awfully ugly. It's enough to forget about the couple of times the Cards swept series down there during the regular season.

Despite all that trauma still somewhat fresh in my mind, your intrepid TBW.com travel correspondent ventured into the lion's den last weekend for the Cards' first road series of 2007. It was a fun weekend, as they took two of three from the hated Astros, despite some unseasonably awful weather (highs were in the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, with rain). Observations, opinions and displays of photographic skill are shown after the jump.

Friday night's game actually took place on a beautiful spring night, and was a special occasion: Jeff Bagwell Appreciation Night. From all of the wrath Bags imposed on the Cardinal franchise throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, I still had a healthy respect for the guy as a player and a person (the same goes for Craig Biggio). So naturally, I was on my feet applauding for the guy when he came out of the Astros' dugout.

The Astros' public relations/graphics/whatever departments were pretty clever, too; on Friday for Bagwell Night, each player in the starting lineup got a Bagwellesque goatee photoshopped onto their face on the scoreboard. Some were funnier than others (as many of them almost looked natural), but this one was easily the best:

Also, the Astros' 2007 slogan was Return of the Good Guys, an homage to Westerns, I guess. Pictures everywhere showed the likes of Oswalt, Biggio, Berkman, and Lee in menacing poses with bats on their shoulders, and it was a consistent theme. They went a little overboard with the enormous banners on the exterior walls of the ballpark, I think, but their displays on the scoreboard when the Cards came up were also pretty clever:

From the outside, Minute Maid Park is actually not all that bad looking. The steel beams painted green offer a nice contrast to whatever portion of the facade they are paired with (i.e. glass walls, brick areas, and white roof), and the landscaping around the park is very nice. (I didn't take any good pictures of the exterior, mostly thanks to the weather.) The Astros also included a Houston landmark into the design of the ballpark by using the old Union Station building as the club's offices out beyond the left field facade; however, it's not quite as prominent a feature as the Western Metal Supply building in San Diego.

As for the interior of the ballpark, it's been labeled as ridiculous by some, and I for one have been an outspoken opponent of the Crawford Boxes being so close to home plate (case in point, the Berkman home run in Game 5 of the '05 NLCS). But being at a game there, especially when you're sitting down the first base line on a night with the roof open, it's not quite as obscene:

Still, the Chick Fil-A foul poles, the hill, the flag pole, the Crawford Boxes, the giant gas pump, the locomotive complete with tender full of oranges for God's sakes... it's very gimmicky, but most new ballparks are. But the roof... oh dear, the roof. As an open-air ballpark, Minute Maid actually wasn't that bad. But with the roof closed, it's very odd. Especially when it clears out towards the end of games - you can hear a lot of things that you normally wouldn't hear, even in an empty open-air ballpark. Plus, the lighting is really, really strange during the day.

Pictured above is Kip Wells, who was absolutely dealing in the series finale on Easter Sunday. Wells only allowed three baserunners (one hit, one walk, one hit batsman) in seven shutout innings while striking out eight. Brad Lidge, however, was not dealing; his wildness and resulting blowup on Sunday in mop-up duty caused Phil Garner to remove him from the closer's role despite only getting one save opportunity in the Astros' first five games. It's always nice to see Lidge face Albert Pujols, although on this particular occasion Brad got the better of the matchup, forcing a grounder to short (which Adam Everett made an tough-luck error on). The best part about Lidge's appearance, however, was his battle with Yadier Molina:

Ball, Y Molina doubled to deep center, S Rolen and S Spiezio scored, D Borkowski relieved B Lidge

The "ball" was a fastball up and in that knocked Yady to the ground. Whether it was intentional or not is questionable, as Lidge was all over the place with his fastball, but it's nice to see Yady get back in there turn on the very next pitch for an extra-base hit.

Other notes:
• The lines at the concession stands were as slow as any ballpark I've ever seen. On Friday night, I missed seeing the Wainright-Molina double play while waiting at a stand and on Sunday I spent two full innings out in the concourse in line. Also, I saw the longest non-postseason line at a men's room I've ever noticed at a ballpark, which went about twelve people strong out the door.

• The food, however, was excellent. They have stands called Rose's Taqueria that have fairly inexpensive ($4.25!) chicken and/or steak fajitas. The chili cheese fries from the regular stands, albeit more expensive ($6.25) are very good as well. If only they had T-bone steaks... after all, it is Texas.

• The Crawford Boxes don't feel quite as much on top of left field as I expected. Still, they weren't bad seats, if you can get 'em.

• Astros fans... uh, I think I'll be nice and say they suffer from entertainment-only syndrome. Guys like Brad Ausmus and Chris Burke got, inexplicably, some of the loudest ovations I heard all weekend. Craig Biggio's "hit counter", located on the left field wall next to the giant gas pump (and in front of the windmill), also appeared to be the most popular feature of the ballpark for these fans. Not once did I hear the words "Hunter Pence" uttered.

All in all, it was a good weekend (how could it not be if the Cards take the series?), but I was overall disappointed by Minute Maid. I prefer my ballparks to be a little less gimmicky than your average fan (New Busch as well), so perhaps I'm more sensitive than others, but Minute Maid just appeared to be much more over the top than other new ballparks I've seen. If I had to rank it, I'd put it a notch below the class of PNC, Petco, and Camden Yards, perhaps slotting it beneath Great American and Citizen's Bank but ahead of the likes of New Busch and New Comiskey.

MLB Plays the Race Card

Sunday, April 15 marks the 60th anniversary of Jackie Robinson's debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers, an event that changed baseball history - and American history as a whole. Jackie was an incredible athlete - one who lettered in four sports at UCLA and was an All-American football player before settling on a career in baseball - and a strong, principled individual. He once was arrested for refusing to move to the back of a segregated military bus, long before Rosa Parks entered America's collective mind. Tributes to Jackie are everywhere; even noted bigot Todd Jones is getting into the act - he penned an article for Yahoo! about how tough it must've been for Jackie to overcome the prejudices of his teammates. (I can't make this stuff up.) So, Major League Baseball is rightfully celebrating the 60th anniversary of Jackie's debut nationwide; between these festivities and the made-for-television Civil Rights Game on March 31 featuring our Cardinals, it certainly appears MLB is pulling out all the stops to pander to the African-American portions of its fan base. And all this fanfare comes at a time which MLB's percentage of black players is at its lowest since the 1950s. According to a recent article in the Post-Dispatch:

While Major League Baseball has made recent strides in elevating the number of minorities in its front offices and the central office, it has fought a losing battle against the well-known attrition of black athletes. Of players on major league rosters last season, only 8.7 percent were African-American.

I'm getting a sinister vibe here; MLB has made a fairly public point that it will do whatever it deems necessary to maximize its profits - take the recent Extra Innings/DirectTV, uh, agreement as an example. So, just as expected in the case of Jackie Robinson Day, the public relations machine is operating at full speed ahead - MLB.com has created an entire page devoted to Jackie and the celebration on Sunday, which likely took thousands of hours from their staff writers and web design group. Large for-profit corporations such as MLB don't just spend those kinds of resources out of goodwill; they spend them, in this case, in order to gain market share. A MLB representative even admitted as much in the aforementioned Post-Dispatch article:

Baseball, Solomon said, has also fought a losing marketing battle against basketball and football.

A losing marketing battle! Other sports aside, note the absence of a similar magnitude of official MLB server space devoted to Minnie Minoso or Roberto Clemente, two pioneering Latin players of the same era. Why? Perhaps it's because baseball has a wide following in Latin America, and the Latin minority is much better represented among its players (29.4% according to the same UCF study quoted in the Post-Dispatch). The Latin market doesn't need the investment to give MLB the return it wants, so MLB has decided to spend its money on African-Americans in the hope that they will return the favor. It's not the only reason for Jackie Robinson Day, but you'll have a hard time convincing this baseball fan that the marketing aspect of the day doesn't play a part in MLB's decision to promote it as much as they have.

Dipping Into the Pool

Not to act too much like a mainstream journalist or anything, but I came across this post on Al's Ramblings and had to repeat it here:

I'm going to paraphrase Bob Uecker from this weekend.

"If you're scoring at home to spring training games, you must be out of your mind."

That's not to suggest that spring training and spring training games have no importance, but it certainly does suggest that you cannot assume a consistent level of competition, talent, and effort throughout.

How [uh, Chris Duncan] progresses defensively is more noteworthy than who is leading the team in batting average, for example. Relax, enjoy the games, and pay attention to the little things players are working on instead of the big things, like who won or lost.

As mentioned before, I don't really get into spring training. The season's a month away, there is way too much Brian Falkenborg than I'm comfortable with watching, and there's college basketball on anyway. The big event this week is Selection Sunday.

However, it is time to prepare for the upcoming season, so we here at The Birdwatch have done a little housekeeping. The links on the left sidebar have been updated, at long last; many had gone idle in the two years since that had last been done. (Note: if you have a blog or site that you would like us to link to, feel free to drop me an email.) In addition, this particular "journalist" is going to do his utmost best to post at least once a week until the season starts, and up that to twice a week during the season. Some forthcoming posts include:

• Chris Duncan projection using the comparative analysis shown here
• Anthony Reyes projection
• Adam Wainwright projection
• Minute Maid Park review
• Wrigley Field review/photographic essay (depending on my travel schedule)
• Something steroid-related (since it's hard to avoid the subject)

So strap yourselves in, people, it's going to be a fun year.

Shameless Fantasy Self-Promotion

I try never to use this website for personal benefit. Right now, however, I have a bit of a dilemma. I'm in a fantasy baseball quasi-keeper league, and I'm coming off a dominant season in which my team had the best regular season record by 2½ games - 1 game per week - in a 22-week season (and, for the record, lost in the finals when several key players went down with injuries). My roster was stacked with guys who I acquired either thanks to luck, great timing, good trading, or a solid draft - and had a few career seasons and a little overachievement mixed in. I'd love to keep the majority of them - in fact, I'm pretty confident I would be the top team in the league next year if I could keep my entire roster. However, I'm only able to keep four players, and I have way too many choices for those four. And I believe I'm only allowed to keep one of the four after 2007, or perhaps it's 2008, I'm not sure which. So, I'm soliciting the advice of fellow fantasy baseballers all over Cardinal Nation: help a brother out! And perhaps, if you're considering keeping or drafting any of these guys, you could find my analysis useful. (Ha!) Hard data is after the jump...

Anyway, here's my options for keepers in no particular order, with age for the 2007 season, 2006 stats, and comments shown for each. The league is a standard 5 & 5 with a few extra position players (2 extra IF, 2 extra OF in addition to the regular lineup + Util) and pitchers (3 SP total, 2 RP total, 3 extra P) on each roster. And we do a standard draft, not the auction format, if that makes a difference.

Ryan Howard (1B Phi) - age 27 - .313 AVG/104 R/58 HR/149 RBI/0 SB
This one's pretty much a no-brainer, even if he declines a little in the HR numbers. The Phillies' lineup is stacked, and he'll be hungry if he doesn't get paid this winter. Unless, of course, he goes into Operation Shutdown or something. Howard was my fifth round pick in '06, and he'd be a sure first rounder this year if he were to be drafted.

Chris Carpenter (SP StL) - age 32 - 221.2 IP/15 W/0 SV/184 K/3.09 ERA/1.07 WHIP
I wasn't immediately sold on keeping Carp after the season ended; however, as time has progressed I'm more convinced I should. I acquired Carp and Grady Sizemore in a trade for my first-round pick, Miguel Cabrera (plus flameouts Jonny Gomes and Javy Lopez). Despite a probable decline and barring any injury, he should be a top-ten pitcher and I'd say at worst a second-round pick in most drafts. And despite being by far the oldest player I'm considering keeping, his health is probably a safer bet than some of the younger pitchers on my roster.

Scott Kazmir (SP TB) - age 23 - 144.2/10/0/163/3.24/1.27
When K is for Kazmir was racking up the double-digit K games in June and July, I figured keeping him would be a given. He's still early 20's and has struck out more than a batter per inning in his major league career and has posted a career ERA of 3.73 despite a walk rate above 4 per 9 IP. However, a shoulder injury shut him down for the season in late August after showing few signs of trouble all year long. He was a 17th round pick for me in 2006, however with a breakout season that number should drastically change for the better. His health is a concern, and I haven't heard any news lately regarding his status for 2007, but if I remember correctly it seemed there was nothing prohibiting him from pitching this coming season. Unlike, of course...

Francisco Liriano (SP/RP Min) - age 23 - 121.0/12/1/144/2.16/1.00
Heartbreak. After my team was carried by F-Bomb through July and August, to hear he was going on the DL with elbow pain was disturbing. I was thrilled to hear about a week later, in mid-September, that he would be coming back on national TV against the A's. Sure enough, I planned my evening to watch, since I was in the league semifinals at the time. It was beautiful for two innings, and then... my fantasy season flashed before my eyes. Tommy John surgery was a (not-so-immediate) result, and Liriano will not pitch in 2007. Still, I'm considering keeping him and putting him on the DL the entire season in a gamble that he'll be Santanaesque in 2008. I could probably afford the DL slot. However, it's probable that I let him go and see if I can grab him before someone else does in the later rounds of the draft. Liriano was my 19th-round pick in 2006 as a bit of an unknown commodity; who knows where he'd go this year given the injury.

Chase Utley (2B Phi) - age 28 - .309/131/32/102/15
Chase is an offensive juggernaut at a position where those are scarce. His 2005 and 2006 numbers are remarkably similar, so it's hard to believe that he'll decline in 2008 while still in his late twenties. And hitting in front of Ryan Howard will do wonders for your runs scored. However, given the human wrecking ball that's playing about 150 feet away on the field, injury is always a risk for Utley. Still, it's hard to convince myself not to keep this guy. He was my third-round pick in 2006; he should go slightly higher this year as easily the best 2B in the league now that Jose Reyes has moved to SS.

Grady Sizemore (CF Cle) - age 25 - .290/134/28/76/22
Sizemore is a very, very good player. But I'm thinking that he's a much more valuable player to the Cleveland Indians than he is to my 5 & 5 fantasy team. Why? A jaw-dropping 53 doubles and 11 triples might as well be wimpy little singles. Still, I can't complain about how I acquired him (the aforementioned trade). He's probably going to end up a top-ten fantasy OF in 2007 when all's said and done (despite not being drafted as such most places) thanks to a runs scored total that likely won't decline much, if any in a stacked Indians lineup. A guy who does that and who should only get better in other statistics as he enters his prime puts up a very strong case. If I keep an outfielder, it almost has to be Grady.

Brett Myers (SP Phi) - age 27 - 198.0/12/0/189/3.91/1.30
Myers struggled at times this year both on and off the mound and was victimized by a killer hitter's park, but still managed a K rate of almost a batter an inning while remaining consistently healthy once again. Still an underrated player, he's in his prime at 27.

Matt Holliday (LF Col) - age 27 - .326/119/34/114/10
Yet another age-27 player next year, Holliday put up huge numbers in 2006 despite the anti-Coors Field humidor effect. I was lucky enough to snag him in the 9th round, which should be slightly below where he's drafted this year. However, my gut tells me that, despite it being his age-27 season, Holliday's 2007 won't be as good as his '06. Why? First off, his career in the minors wasn't particularly spectacular. Between 2000-2003, Holliday never slugged above .400. Alright, I could understand if a player suddenly "got it" in terms of power at some point in his career (see Finley, Steve). So, throw that out. Still, Holliday drew only 47 walks in 2006 - which, mind you, was his career high. I lean towards the sabermetric, even in fantasy baseball where it doesn't really matter, so I have a hard time going after guys who hit for high average and power despite poor walk rates. I'm not saying it can't be done (see Soriano, Alfonso), but I'm a bit skeptical of Holliday heading into 2007.

Vernon Wells (CF Tor) - age 28 - .303/91/32/106/17
Wells again is a good player, but I'm not convinced because of the walk rate. Wells was my 7th round pick in 2006, and I think he'd be about there or maybe slightly higher this year. Still, I think he's a bit overvalued and probably a long shot to be kept. On a different roster, though, he would have a shot.

Jered Weaver (SP LAA) - age 24 - 123.0/11/0/105/2.56/1.03
Cardinal hero Jeff's younger brother didn't put up the unreal K rate of a Liriano, Kazmir, or even Myers, but his 7.68 was pretty darn good, and he did strike out 93 in 77 IP in AAA in '06. He might be a bit of a long shot thanks to the little bit of uncertainty that he can match his stellar rookie year in 2007.

Miguel Tejada (SS Bal) - age 31 - .330/99/24/100/6
Tejada's only 31? Wow. I even consider myself somewhat of a fan of the O's, too, and I thought he was like 35. Still, it's hard to see Miggy do a whole lot better in 2007 than he did in 2006, if at all. His extra-base hit total in 2006 was his lowest since 1999. Given that he's played in the most consecutive games since Cal Ripken's streak, it's likely that he'll wear down in a Ripkenesque fashion over his 30s. (Ripken, while a stellar player throughout his 20s, only posted an OPS+ of 100 or greater three times after he turned 30. His selfish dedication to the streak clearly affected his performance in the second half of his career - acting as a detriment to his team - which is why, to me, he is one of the most overrated players in history. Down from soapbox.) Still, Tejada's a shortstop, and thanks to A-Rod's move to third base, Nomar's move to the DL, and a general lack of depth at the position, Miggy is still a top-five guy there. I got him in the second round in '06; he'll probably be a third- or fourth-rounder in '07. I'm on the fence on this one.

Erik Bedard (SP Bal) - age 28 - 196.1/15/0/171/3.76/1.35
The Canadian lefty had a bit of a breakout 2006, pitching very well at times for a pitching-starved Orioles club. Aside from an ugly May (during which I dropped him and picked him back up), he posted an ERA of 4.15 or better in every other calendar month, highlighted by a 4-0, 1.54, 35 K/9 BB July which came on the heels of a new change-up in his repertoire. This guy can dominate when he's on, but control problems when he starts to nibble can make things pretty ugly sometimes. I got him in the 25th (second-to-last) round in '06, and while he's probably going to go higher in most cases he's still flying under the radar. He's a guy who's highly underrated in my opinion and could be a steal in a later round of a draft - the type who can propel you to a huge season - but I doubt he'll make the cut here.

Javier Vazquez (SP CWS) - age 31 - 202.2/11/0/184/4.84/1.29
Ever since he left Montreal, Vazquez has posted mediocre ERAs despite solid peripherals. I managed to pounce on him on the waiver wire after his disgruntled owner dropped him in early August, and he performed pretty well down the stretch - he racked up 50 K in 35.1 IP in September (four double-digit strikeout games, in which he went 0-3 ironically) with solid ERA and WHIP in both his last two months. He should be the Sox' best starting pitcher in 2007, but unfortunately he's not one of the top 3 pitchers on this squad and will likely not be kept.

Other guys on my roster who I'd love to keep...
...because they should be well worth a roster spot next year:
Adrian Gonzalez (SD 1B) - age 25 - .304/83/24/82/0
(probably a solid backup 1B at worst)
Edwin Encarnacion (Cin 3B) - age 24 - .276/60/15/72/6
(in only 117 G, could be huge in '07)
Rich Hill (ChC SP) - age 27 - 99.1/6/0/90/4.17/1.23
(ridiculous K rates in minors, control and HR rate are biggest flaws)
Josh Willingham (Fla LF) - age 28 - .277/62/26/74/2
(was a steal as a C in '06, but won't retain eligibility - still a decent backup OF)
Bobby Jenks (CWS RP) - age 26 - 69.2/3/41/4.00/1.39
(lots of K and saves if you can stand the high ERA - which should improve)
Chris Ray (Bal RP) - age 25 - 66.0/4/33/2.73/1.09
(K rate decreased, and team won't generate SVOPPs, but very solid young RP)
John Maine (NYM SP) - age 26 - 90.0/6/0/71/3.60/1.13
(good minor league record, should break out in 2007)
JD Drew (Bos CF/RF) - age 31 - .283/84/20/100/2
(I keep holding onto hope that he'll have another year like 2004)

The rest of the roster:
Ryan Garko (Cle 1B) - age 26 - .292/28/7/45/0
Chris Duncan (StL RF/LF) - age 26 - .293/60/22/43/0
Brian Roberts (Bal 2B) - age 29 - .286/85/10/55/36
Boof Bonser (Min SP) - age 25 - 100.1/7/0/84/4.22/1.28
Orlando Hernandez (NYM SP) - age 41ish - 162.1/11/0/164/4.66/1.33
Greg Maddux (SD SP) - age 41 - 210.0/15/0/117/4.20/1.22

That's it. It was a fun ride in 2006 with that roster. Can you believe I actually had Roy Halladay as well, and replaced him with Bonser in the final weeks when it became clear that Halladay would miss his final start or two? And Mark Teahen during his second-half hot streak, dropping him in favor of Garko when he had to have surgery? ...but anyway, I'm leaning towards keeping Howard, Utley, Carpenter, and Kazmir. Unfortunately there are so... many... choices. Feel free to leave any input or analysis you may have in the comments - even questions regarding your team. I'm no professional, but I think I know my way around a fantasy baseball roster as well as the next guy. It's always good to get ideas from multiple sources, at the very least. So, have at it! Let the fantasy forum begin!

Baseball 2006: The Year In Pictures

Yes, it's that time of year already: the end of 2006, and what a year it was. Heck, it couldn't have been any better. All the frustration and angst of an ugly, 83-win regular season for the Cardinals were wiped away with a dramatic run to the World Series championship. The words "improbable" and "unlikely", among others, have been thrown around plenty, so I won't use them to describe what happened. I'll just say it was simply an amazing thing to be a part of - even the small part of a fan. I admit with zero shame that I was screaming like a madman for a good five minutes straight after Yady hit the home run that beat the Mets. And being part of the celebration in St. Louis after Game 5 was truly special. At least three hours after the game ended (i.e., about 2:30 a.m.), I wandered down into the 8th and Pine MetroLink station to the sounds of people screaming and car horns honking. It was the first St. Louis championship of my lifetime that I was able to celebrate properly - in '82 I was a year and a half old, and in '00 for the Super Bowl I was away at college - and I'll treasure that memory, as well as the rest of the memories of this year, forever.

So, cheesy intro aside, I figure I'd at least divulge the purpose of this post. First, it's to try and make up for the lack of, well, anything that's going on on the site, and second, it's to provide the best ending for 2006 that I possibly can. I don't think much of myself as a writer; that's partially why I hardly ever post here. Actually, I don't think much of myself as a photographer, either, come to think of it. But taking a picture is a lot more repeatable with a lot less effort than posting a blog, so you can afford to screw up a lot more pictures than blog posts in an effort to get the perfect one. Thus, I've decided to post my year-in-review with a collection of pictures I've taken at ballgames. I live equidistant from Baltimore, Washington, and Philadelphia, so I saw the majority of my games in those three cities this year - but I also made trips to see the Cards play in San Diego, and at home at Busch during the regular season, in addition to a few other games on these trips. (Unfortunately, my camera was stolen after the Cards' opening week series in Philadelphia, so those pictures are in somebody else's scrapbook.) These pictures aren't professionally done, using expensive equipment or anything relating to the word "f-stop". They're taken with a cheap digital camera and are from a fan's perspective, which I'd say is appropriate for the purpose of this site. So, enjoy yourselves - the photos are, as Will on Deadspin likes to say, after the jump.

Warning: if you have a dial-up connection, you might want to go run around the block or something after you click the link.

Friday, May 26: Albert Pujols bats against Clay Hensley of the Padres at Petco Park. The Padres won the game 7-1.

Saturday, May 27: Jason Isringhausen pitches against Mike Piazza of the Padres at Petco Park. Several batters later, Yadier Molina picked off Brian Giles - a runner who didn't even matter since the bases were loaded in a 4-3 game - at first base to end one of the more exciting games of the year.

Saturday, May 27: New Cardinal Adam Kennedy, in his Angels days, bats against Adam Loewen of the Orioles at Angel Stadium. The Angels hammered the O's 10-1 on this particular evening. However, I was able to fulfill a crazy dream of mine by seeing two games in two different ballparks on the same day on May 27, and even better, those games involved my two favorite teams.

Sunday, May 28: A group of uniformed military personnel salute during the national anthem before the Cardinals-Padres game at Petco Park. The Padres won 10-8, signaling the beginning of the end for Mark Mulder.

Sunday, June 4: The sold-out crowd makes its way down Eutaw Street sometime during the Orioles-Yankees game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Sunday, June 18: The Nationals take on the Yankees and their hordes of fans at sold-out (for about the only series all season) RFK Stadium. The Nationals won 3-2 on a Ryan Zimmerman 2-run walkoff home run off Chien-Ming Wang.

Saturday, June 24: Brett Myers of the Phillies pitches to Mark Loretta of the Red Sox at Fenway Park. This game, in addition to being a Fox broadcast, gained national attention since Myers had been arrested two nights earlier for striking his wife in the face outside their hotel in Boston. The crowd let Myers hear their displeasure throughout the game.

Saturday, June 24: Red Sox players mob David Ortiz outside the dugout after Ortiz hit a walkoff home run in the 10th inning. Between the walkoff home run and the Myers saga, my first trip to Fenway was a very exciting one.

Saturday, June 24: The Fenway Park press box, after the game. The Sox won 5-3.

Thursday, August 31: Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins pitches to the Cards' Ronnie Belliard at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals couldn't solve Willis, but won the game off the Fish bullpen, 5-2.

Friday, September 1: The Cardinals shake hands after their 3-1 victory over the Pirates at Busch Stadium.

Sunday, September 3: Anthony Reyes of the Cardinals pitches to Freddy Sanchez of the Pirates on a glorious Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. Albert Pujols hit home runs in his first three plate appearances of this game (and nearly hit one in his fourth) as the Cards won 6-3.

Tuesday, September 5: Pedro Astacio of the Nationals delivers a pitch to the Cards' Albert Pujols at RFK Stadium.

Tuesday, September 5: To the delight of the crowd at RFK Stadium, most of whom were Cardinals fans on a rainy evening in D.C., Jason Isringhausen strikes out the Nationals' Felipe Lopez to end the game in a 2-0 victory for the Cards. It turned out to be Izzy's last save of 2006, as he came in the next afternoon after a dramatic home run by Preston Wilson, and walked the bases loaded before giving up a game-winning hit to Jose Vidro. Isringhausen disclosed shortly thereafter that his arthritic hip prevented him from pitching effectively. (No, really?) So, he gave way to Adam Wainwright as closer, and the rest is history.

Friday, September 22: The Phillies' Ryan Howard, a St. Louis native, rounds the bases after hitting his 58th home run of the season as the Citizens Bank Park crowd goes nuts. With a week and change left in the season, I was pretty sure it wouldn't be his last. But the two intentional walks he received later in this game proved to be a sign of the times; he was given many more over the final week. The walks, and the pressure of carrying the Phils, caught up with him and he ended the season with a Philadelphia record-tying 58 home runs. The Phillies won this particular game over the Marlins, 5-2.

Thursday, October 26: The pep rally at Kiener Plaza before Game 4 (the second one) of the World Series.

Thursday, October 26: Fans at Busch Stadium celebrate after the Cards finished off their victory in Game 4 of the World Series, 5-4.

Friday, October 27: The Cards' Jeff Weaver pitches to Carlos Guillen of the Tigers in Game 5 of the World Series at Busch Stadium.

Friday, October 27: Busch Stadium erupts as the Cardinals celebrate their World Series championship after beating the Tigers 4-2 in Game 5.

Friday, October 27: The Cardinals ownership is presented with the World Series trophy on the confetti-covered Busch Stadium field, while the scoreboard states the obvious overhead.

Here's to a 2007 that ends the same way.

No Sympathy

Is anyone else sick of all this crap (mostly on the Fox pregame show) about the Tigers "rescuing Detroit, saving the city", etc.? Yeah, they're a nice story since they've been so awful up until this season, but it's not like the city of Detroit hasn't had any championships lately. After all, they have the Pistons, who won an NBA title just two and a half years ago. Then there's the Red Wings... and oh, the Red Wings. As a Blues fan, this World Series means a bit more, as the Wings have haunted the Blues whenever they've been up against them in the playoffs. Not to mention their three Stanley Cups in the past ten years. No, I don't feel bad at all for Detroit, whose teams have won seven championships in the four major professional sports since 1981, the year I was born. (St. Louis has won two, for the record.) St. Louis is a baseball town; we deserve this, Hockeytown does not.

Game 1 time. GO CARDS!

Tidbits

News and notes from the week that was:

After a couple months of purgatory, the Cubs fired Dusty Baker this week. Joe Girardi, canned by the Marlins after a disagreement with management, is being hailed as the frontrunner to replace Baker. With Baker now out, I must thank him for doing his unintentional best to destroy the tiny bit of hope that Cubs fans had for their franchise. While guiding the Cubs to the division title in 2003, he repeatedly overstressed the arms of his two best young pitchers, then proceeded to lobby to have his roster stocked with speedy, flashy-gloved, albeit terrible-hitting position players while running a fan favorite out of town. So we must bid adieu to you, Dusty; Cardinal Nation will miss you.

Other managerial firings: Girardi, Felipe Alou, Buck Showalter, and Frank Robinson. Having followed the saga of the Expos/Nationals and rooting hard for the nomadic '03 and '04 wild card-contending 'Spos, I developed a huge amount of respect for Robinson. If this is indeed his final managerial campaign, it's a sad end to what was a fun couple of seasons as manager of that franchise. However, his overall managerial career was fairly unimpressive, and thus is probably coming to an end at his advanced age of 71.

As I write this, I'm watching the Oakland A's take on the Twins in Game 3 of their Division Series out in Oakland. The A's have gone small-market this season, shrinking the 50,000-plus seat McAfee Coliseum to a capacity of 34,077 by placing a green tarp over the seats in the third deck of the stadium, which they share with the Raiders. That worked fine during the regular season, as the A's averaged 24,000 or so at home. But seeing the tarp up for this game was a bit of a surprise - upon further research, it appears that they will be keeping it that way for the playoffs, for whatever reason. Maybe it's just me, but if the A's end up in the World Series, wouldn't playing in a "sold out" ballpark with a tarp covering 16,000 empty seats be a bit embarrassing?

And to top it all off for irony, right as I started writing all that, my McAfee VirusScan came on and reeeeeeeally slowed down my computer.

Apparently, Anthony Reyes was left off the Cardinals' playoff roster. Jason Marquis was not. WTF? This means that Jeff Weaver would start a possible Game 5 in San Diego on three days' rest. If pigs fly, anyway.

Yeah, that's because the Cardinals took the first two games of the Division Series in San Diego. Carp was dominant in Game 1, and then Jeff Weaver, he of the 0-2, 9.72 postseason career, shut out the Padres for five innings in Game 2. The ideal situation for the Cards would obviously be to sweep with Suppan in Game 3, saving Carpenter's next start (and setting up the rotation perfectly) for the NLCS. As for Weaver, the Padres have the worst lineup of the four NL playoff teams, so I'm not holding my breath regarding the rest of his October - but getting a victory with him on the mound is like stealing a game. We can only hope it happens again elsewhere.

Update 11:45 p.m. ET:

Yes, we will. We are thankful that he, in some way, has enriched our lives. As one of baseball's greatest ambassadors, he will be missed.

Twisting the Knife

Major League Baseball's public relations machine has come up with a doozy of an advertising campaign, evidently unveiled today sometime. In the television spot, Tommy Lasorda, Mr. Dodger himself, is seen trying to recruit fans of eliminated teams who are hiding in kitchen cabinets to come out and watch the playoffs (which, ironically, his team will likely be playing in). Sure enough, on MLB.com's main page, a sidebar is shown with the slogan "Watch the games - it's what your team will be doing!". I don't know about anyone else, but if I were a die-hard fan of an eliminated team - and the Cards are damn close right now - I think seeing that would cause me to be more offended than motivated to go watch any playoff games. Especially if I got one of these.

Review: Petco Park

Most of us in the Eastern and Central time zones don't get to see a whole lot of baseball that's played on the West coast. Games typically start at 10:00 on the East coast, which means the highlights don't get caught on the first Sportscenter before we're all going to bed. So, there's a number of ballparks out there that most of us don't get to see a whole lot of on television, much less in person given the amount of travel involved. Since 1998, four of the six teams in the Pacific time zone (including Arizona, which is on Pacific time during baseball season) have opened new ballparks, and all four have qualified for the postseason since. However, only the Giants and Diomondbacks have played in a World Series, thus keeping the slightly smaller market Mariners and Padres a little further from the spotlight. That's a shame, because Seattle and San Diego play in two of baseball's hidden gems, Safeco Field and Petco Park. The Cardinals finished up their West coast trip two weekends ago at Petco, and didn't fare so well. But it was a lovely Memorial Day weekend in "America's Finest City", and between that and the ballpark it kept this tourist happy during an ugly weekend of baseball.

I've been to a lot of ballparks, including some considered among the best in the business (Camden Yards, PNC, Kaufmann, Wrigley). But I am now of the opinion that Petco Park is the best of the post-1990 ballparks I've seen, just a notch above the Yards because of its fresh look. It's everything that many of the newer ballparks have strived for - a baseball and fan-friendly facility located in an area of town booming with energy and redevelopment. That, and it's an architectural gem.

First off, the concourse areas are like nothing I've ever seen at a ballpark. Obviously, being in a climate like San Diego's helps to create an atmosphere like this, but the combination of the plants and the sandstone facade is striking. Here's some pictures:

Another architectural feature of the ballpark that I enjoyed was the integration of the old Western Metal Supply office building into the outfield wall. The building dates to 1909, which may not seem old by our standards, but the 1910 census estimated the population of the city of San Diego at 39,578. By comparison, the population of the city of St. Louis was estimated at 687,029 by the same census, making it the fourth-largest city in the United States. So 1909 makes it one of the older buildings in the area. Thus, the structure was retained as part of the ballpark in a similar fashion to the B&O Warehouses in Baltimore. The WMS building, however, was used in a little more fan-friendly way, creating luxury suites as well as a San Diego baseball museum (yes, it was small) in addition to a rooftop party suite complete with bleacher seats similar to the rooftops adjacent to Wrigley Field. Here's a look:

The view from the top isn't bad, either (it shows the light towers, which are another striking feature of the ballpark):

Beyond centerfield, there's a little park area that is a popular spot for families and others to sit on towels and watch the game. Adjacent to that is a youth field that's similar to ones I've seen in Milwaukee and Kansas City (and I'm sure there are others elsewhere). In addition, as you can see, there's plenty of construction going on beyond the outfield walls:

Other intangibles: the Andoullie sausage I had Sunday afternoon was among the best ballpark food I've ever had. Also, the Nacho Libre mask giveway on Saturday was definitely the coolest giveaway day prize I've ever seen.

The only thing I didn't like about the ballpark really didn't have a whole lot to do with the ballpark itself, and perhaps is just a result of circumstance. San Diego's baseball tradition is pretty non-existent, although none of the class of '69 (Padres, Pilots/Brewers, Royals, Expos/Nationals) has done a whole lot, with one world championship and only five pennants between the four teams in 37 seasons. So there's not a whole lot to root for, and the laid-back SoCal attitude doesn't help things, but I was pretty surprised at how uninterested the San Diego fans seemed. A weekend series against the best team in the league drew 110,942 fans, or just under 37,000 a game. They're averaging 30,651 a game, 13th in MLB, despite the great new ballpark. In addition, the fans just kind of sat there during the game. There was a distinct delayed crowd reaction when anything happened, and unlike the fans at the Big A (where I went Saturday night after the Cards game), it took the stadium graphics proclaiming "MAKE NOISE" to get anyone to do anything unless the Padres scored a run. Perhaps some explanation of the lack of interest is that San Diego, like Phoenix, is one of those transplant cities where a large percentage of the population is originally from somewhere else. And there's a large military contingent, which was out in force on Sunday afternoon:

All in all, I greatly enjoyed the weekend at Petco, despite the ugly baseball that the Cards played. Hopefully for the citizens of San Diego, the Padres will get good someday and baseball fans everywhere will recognize what a gem of a ballpark they have out there.

Diamond Mind Projections

The traditional end to a stathead's pre-season has arrived, as probably the best projections of the bunch are up at Diamond Mind. It's sameole sameole, with the Cardinals heavy favorites to win the NL Central and having a 90% shot at the the post-season. The Cards are projected to lead the league in run prevention and (barely) finish second behind the Bonds-fueled Giants in runs scored. Not bad for all the angst.

For what it's worth, DM had the Cardinals winning 103 in 2005 and winning the NL Central in 2004. Even if you don't buy this stuff, the methodology is an interesting read. The line about managers is particularly funny:

In other words, we don't give a team a few extra wins because they have a highly-regarded manager. In the years we've been doing this, we haven't seen very many examples of a manager consistently over- or under-achieving relative to our projections. Generally speaking, our results have proven to be more accurate when we ignore the managers.

Spring is in the air

Everyday on the way home from work I drive by the Giants spring practice fields. Today I noticed that they are exceptionally trim and green, especially compared to the bone dry surroundings (it hasn't rained here in more than 130 days). I didn't see anybody throwing, or running, or swinging a bat, or even standing on the grass but thats all coming soon. And the sight of that immaculate green field woke me up to the fact that it's time to start really watching baseball again.

So before I go anywhere else with this I was wondering: Does anybody know of any Cardinals related podcasts out there? I'm really interested in some ipod cardinals action, leave a comment if you know of any.

And also: I havn't paid much attention to baseball lately, and when I wander around Cards blogs everybody is deep in their arcane discussions of things that happened in the last 4 months that I'm not aware of. I have the constant feeling of being at a party and walking into a conversation midway through and being totally lost. So if anybody could give me some quick context as I get myself geared up for this year, I'd really appreciate it.

SABR Rattlings

Pip at Fungoes has a nifty chart up that compresses a whole lot of baseball into a 3x5 note card. How did the Cardinals win 100 games? They had no glaring weaknesses -- they and Atlanta were the only NL teams without D's, and the Braves had a C- grade -- and they only had two minor weak spots, at catcher and with their #2 starter. Pip used Win Shares, which I suspect undervalues Yadier's defense, although the Cardinals obviously had some problems with their backups. Win Shares says Jason Marquis was the #2 starter, which probably results in a lot of "Huh?!? Oh, yeah" exclamations.

This method for evaluating pitchers has some awkward consequences, as Chris Carpenter only gets a "B", while Matt Morris somehow gets an "A". In hindsight, you'd like see of those #5 pitcher Win Shares shifted to 3B or the outfield for post-season purposes, but back in December there was no way to know the Cardinals' front five would be good for 160 starts. Actually the ideal destination for added quality would've been the #2 starter's spot. Too bad the distribution of good luck wasn't more skewed. Jocketty correctly identified the Cardinals' post-season need, just Mulder didn't get the job done in 2005.

My other piece of news comes from the SABR Bulletin. Have you seen those Google ads about becoming a baseball scout? If you're a baseball fan, there's an obvious appeal. In fact the ads remind me a little of those MMF schemes, as if they're too good to be true. Longtime scout Bill Clark confirms my suspicion:

What advice would you give to someone who wants to be a scout?

Don’t. And I’ve told several people that. Until you have your future in your own hands, don’t. Don’t be caught up miasma of glory that goes with being a big-league scout. It’s nice to sit in a ball park and say, "I’m a major league scout." But then you come home to find out that you don’t have a job and your family now is in jeopardy.

I guess I'll stick to my TAS reports for another few years then.

Who Knew? Everybody

If you haven't read any of the "ESPN The Magazine Special Report: Who Knew?" yet, go check it out. I'm not quite done with it myself, but there's some really interesting stuff in there. One part in particular reminded me of this post, in the comments of which I used Dave Pinto's Day By Day Database to show the transformation of Bonds' stats starting in the year 2000. It made me think... what about Big Mac? I looked him up and calculated his AB/HR by year (thank you baseball-reference), and sure enough, there is a sort of turning point around '93/94 when he apparently went through some injuries. From '86 to '92 (age 22 to 28), Big Mac hit a homer every 14.2 AB's. From '95 to '01 (age 31 to 37), that figure was down to 8.4.

End of regular season questions

As the regular season winds down to its final three games (or four for some), I have some questions that I'd like the Birdwatch community to chirp in on:

Will San Diego win 2 or more to avoid being the first sub-.500 division champ? If memory serves, 83-78 is the worst non-strike-season divisional winner W-L record since divisional play began in 1969. If memory does not serve, I'm sure one of you out there can correct me. I say San Diego splits their last 4 and finishes 81-81.

Where is the praise and lauding for the schedule makers, at least for the AL? Yankees/Red Sox, White Sox/Indians, and Angels/A's all in the final week, all having a hand in determining divisional champions! I love this game. :-)

Will the NL East finish with all 5 teams over .500? I say yes, and I think that's more amazing than all 4 NL West teams possibly finishing under .500.

Will a one-game playoff be required in the AL for the wild card? I think it is likely at this point.

Will Dusty Baker be back as manager of the Cubs? I say they let him start 2006 and if it starts like 2005 did, he's gone by June 15th.

Will Ozzie Guillen really retire as manager of the White Sox if they win the World Series? We'll never know.

What is the Cardinals' magic number? 11 postseason victories.

That is all.

TSF

Pirates Eliminated

With the Cards' win against the Marlins tonight, and the Pirates' loss to the Brewers, the Bucs officially relinquished any shot at winning the Central Division. They still have an outside shot, okay it's so outside it might be called an extraterrestrial shot, at winning the Wildcard, but tonight we're talking about clinching the division.

The Cards Magic Numbers for the rest of the division:

HOU 16.0
MIL 10.0
CHI 8.0
CIN 8.0

Open Thread: Steroids

The Orioles' Rafael Palmeiro was suspended this week for steroid use, less than a month after collecting his 3,000th hit in Seattle. For Palmeiro, it potentially cripples his Hall of Fame chances, but for the game of baseball, it creates a cloud of suspicion over nearly everyone. If Palmeiro, who adamantly denied using steroids before Congress (...Congress!), and isn't exactly Mr. Physical Specimen, is on them... then who isn't?

Well, other than this guy.

Astros

With yesterday's big win over the Mets and the evil Carlos Beltran, the Astros caught the Nationals for the wild card lead last night. The Astros have gone 18-2 in their last twenty non-Cardinal games. How big does that sweep of Pettitte, Oswalt and Clemens look now? If the broom had gone the other way, then we're looking at a lead that's smaller than the number of Cardinal regulars on the disabled list.

Their recipe for success is no secret. Clemens's back is bothering him and Oswalt's always an injury concern, but unless Larry Walker's caused a nationwide shortage of painkillers, they'll probably manage. Their comeback and the A's similar rally -- ESPN.com has gone "pay" for almost everything, but evidently even Joe Morgan's calling the A's the best team in baseball right now -- are the stories of the middle third of the season.

Game for Sale, Part 1

Walt Jocketty is an average GM. Billy Beane is above average but not the best. Brian Cashman better have his resume handy and should change his last name to reduce the irony of his situation.

It seems to me that ever since Moneyball came out that the emergence of Sabermetrics to popular awareness has brought the GM to the forefront of franchise importance. And so the focus of a great number of baseball fans across the country has been on the tug of war between penny-pinching crafty GMs and brute force, bottomless purse GMs and their abilities to buy, sell and trade quantifiable stat lines we all call players.

So who is winning this battle and what does it matter? If these GMs had baseball cards, what would the backs of them say? Towards the end of Moneyball, Paul DePodesta gripes that the playoffs are essentially a crap shoot -- no skill necessary. Still, many concerned fans worried the 2004 Cardinals weren’t “built for” the playoffs.

Can a franchise buy a World Series ring? Most people would say no. But many people might believe a franchise can buy a regular season.

I've gathered a rough graphical introduction to League parity and efficiency. Let’s see how the teams are doing so far -- roughly 1/2 way through -- this season (as of games through 7/1/2005).

(If anyone knows how to turn xcel charts into .jpg or otherwise display them, please let me know... otherwise we're stuck with .pdf downloads).

League Payroll and Win Costs

The first thing that surprised me was the relatively steady slope of increase across League payroll. That is, until you get to the Red Sox and Yankees. Clearly, the Yankees are the "Evil Empire," and the Red Sox obviously coined that term to hide in its monstrous shadow and mug old women anonymously. Hey, we may be bad, but at least we're not Yankee bad. But barring those two extremes, the League is not quite the stark example of the Haves and the Have Nots as I previously thought.

Given that these are rough numbers to start off with, I thought I'd at least scrape away one more layer and look at costs within divisions. What a different picture we get when we group the franchises by division.

That's more illuminating. Essentially, each division has a pretty much logarithmic curve of payroll, except, again, the ALE which appears more exponential.

It's a tough thing to evaluate the performance of a GM based on 1/2 a season of play. All the numbers above and below are assuming we've played exactly half the season (I chopped all the payrolls in half for the relative measures) and that the teams have all played the same number of games. But, they are not grossly off. The large trends become obvious and wouldn't be shaken by a couple wins in either direction.

With those biases acknowledged, how do we say how well or poorly a GM is doing anyway? Clearly, a team must compete at two levels, one level is within its own division in order to make the playoffs, and the second level is against the whole league in order to have a good chance at the World Championship when the regular season ends.

So, I concocted a measure of how relatively well or poorly each team is faring against both its division and the league averages as a function of marginal dollars spent above/below division and league average dollars spent.

The equation is roughly = ((Team Wins - Div Avg Wins)/Div Avg Wins) - ((Team Pay - Div Avg Pay)/Div Avg Pay).

And then the same thing for the league averages.

Taking this adjustment (and weighting the division result twice as much as the league result), I added it back into the actual wins to create what are called GM Power Wins. Afterall, efficient teams that aren't productive won't win seasons.

Surprised? This chart is essentially saying, how many wins are being bought above/below the actual wins given this team is in the division it's in, the overall league performance and its payroll. It was a personal pleasure of mine to see the Yankees slip below the Pirates here.

Of course, this is a measure of overall GM power, and I admit it probably over-weights the extreme cases. However, it's also interesting to see the GM Dollar Efficiency or Leverage that each GM brings to his franchise. This measure does not take payroll directly into account, meaning it gives small payroll team GMs a chance to strut their stuff right up there with the big boys. It's just Power Wins/Actual Wins.

Somewhat surprising to me is the ranking of Walt Jocketty. Within the Cards' blogosphere, Walt usually has a reputation of being some sort of genius. Well, he's clearly not bad, but he's not over-performing with the wallet either. In fact, he's precisely neutral, which is fine now that we have the 6th largest payroll in baseball. But it's a different feeling to think that we owe our results to the quantity of dollars spent rather than the quality of deals; to say that at least Walt isn't hurting us.

Getting cocky

It's only mid-June, yes. And a lot can happen in the long summer months ahead. But, right now, is there any team in the National League who can challenge the Cardinals? Let's take a look.

Obviously, the Cardinals have the best record in the NL through yesterday evening (6/17). They also have far and away the best run differential in not only the NL, but all of MLB. That's thanks to their leading the NL in both runs scored and runs allowed.

Here's the records matched with Pythagorean records and run differentials (indicators of future performance) for the National League:

Team            W-L   Pct  RS  RA  +/-   Pyth  
St. Louis      42-24 .636 339 266 (+73) 41-25
Washington     39-28 .582 269 277 ( -8) 33-34
Philadelphia   38-30 .559 329 317 (+12) 35-33
San Diego      36-31 .537 302 296 ( +6) 34-33
Atlanta        35-32 .522 306 270 (+36) 38-29
Chicago        34-31 .523 309 284 (+25) 35-30
Arizona        35-33 .515 321 373 (-52) 29-39
Florida        33-31 .516 290 267 (+23) 35-29
Los Angeles    33-33 .500 308 322 (-14) 32-34
New York       33-34 .493 289 282 ( +7) 34-33
Pittsburgh     30-35 .462 277 284 ( -7) 32-33
Milwaukee      29-37 .439 278 275 ( +3) 33-33
San Francisco  28-37 .431 291 346 (-55) 27-38
Houston        27-38 .415 239 278 (-39) 28-37
Cincinnati     26-41 .388 330 391 (-61) 28-39
Colorado       22-43 .338 297 379 (-82) 25-40

Clearly, the cream has risen to the top. But the biggest thing that this table proves is that the Cards' massive lead over the next-best run differential teams in the league. They're 7½ games ahead of the Cubs and Braves, and 8 ahead of the Marlins -- none of whom have a Pythagorean record within 3½ games of the Cards anyway!

Much has been made of the Cards' lineup, but the pitchering staff has carried the team thus far. The staff leads the NL with a 3.61 ERA by a healthy margin over the Marlins, and has the league lead in WHIP, as well. Both are despite being far behind the gaudy strikeout numbers posted by the Cubs -- they rank 9th in the league in K/9. The bullpen has been stingy, converting 27 of 31 save opportunities, and allowing an ERA of 3.37, which is a full run less than the NL median. The reason for all this success? Once again, as in 2004, the Cards have by far the best ground/fly ratio in the league. I repeat: by far. And if that keeps up...

Even if the hitters continue to struggle, there's no reason to believe that their success won't continue through the rest of the season into October. And with nobody else in the NL appearing to mount a serious challenge, let's hope the Cards can cruise to the pennant this year, allowing them to focus more on winning those final four games.

St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum

I was lucky enough to be given tickets to the June 6 Cards/Red Sox game. Since the friend who got me the tickets is associated with the International Bowling Museum and Hall of Fame, I spent a pleasant afternoon killing time before the game at the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum, located in the IBM&HoF at 111 Stadium Plaza. In addition to the Cardinals Hall of Fame Museum, the IBM&HoF handles stadium tours as well.

Below the fold, a few pictures to give you a taste of what to see there. I'll be posting more of the pictures over at my own blog in a bit...

The entryway to the Hall of Fame Museum.

The Last World Championship Trophy won by the Cardinals.

The exhibit on the 2004 National League Champions. The the right of the case is the Warren Giles Trophy, awarded to the National League Champions.

The 2005 St. Louis Cardinals

An Albert Pujols exhibit. Including one of Albert's bats.

Bob Gibson exhibit.

A print of a famous painting of Stan Musial (original in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown).

MLB.tv

I'd like to thank Major League Baseball for blacking out today's Cardinals-Astros game so that I'm "forced" to watch the Red Sox-Angels of Anaheim game on FOX. You see, I watch the Cardinals too much, and it's hard to keep track of the latest developments with East Coast teams like the Red Sox and Yankees. Who wants to watch Reggie Sanders hit a grand slam or Jason Marquis hit a two-run blast when I can watch Theo's bullpen extend a game to four hours?

A Number by Any Other Name

Turning 30 is an odd event in any person's life, sort of like tasting a Coke-slushy for the first time. Having just hit that milestone myself last weekend, I was struck with inspiration. It's unclear to me whether the inspiration came from my actual birthday or the gallons of beer I consumed with friends while cabbing around Chicago's finest dives, but I remarked "I'm in my baseball prime right now." Someone laughed at me, I think it was the cabbie. So, I thought it might be interesting to throw together two all-star teams for a 7-game series: those 30 and above, and those tender souls below the line.

Which team would you bet on?

I have no scientific method to my selection process. If a player was born in 1975 or earlier, I counted them as the 30 or over group (I mean, it's got to be on their minds anyway). I just picked a couple of the best players at each position keeping in mind this isn't who I'd rather have for the next 6 years but who I'd pick to represent the demographic in a 7-game series tomorrow. Here's who I chose (please offer your own suggestions and your VOTE):

I know who I'd vote for, but it's got nothing to do with talent...

my sl1d3r pwnz j00

ESPN has a new fantasy baseball MMOG going into beta. Think World of Warcraft only baseball. Each player picks a position and builds their character up in the standard obsessive compulsive way.

Jocketty Traded For the Wrong Guy!

So which of the starters traded from last year's A's rotation has the lowest ERA so far? You may have heard Mulder's ERA ballooned to 3.44 after he struggled against the Mets. Hudson's ERA will be 3.40 before his start on Sunday... and after his complete game shutout of the Brewers, Mark Redman's sitting at 2.44. While Redman won't keep that up, the A's could use him as four of their starters now have ERAs over 5.00 and the other starter caught that oblique muscle thing that's been going around. Meanwhile Jason Kendall has a 584 OPS, doing his share to keep the A's dead last in the majors in scoring.

Watch what you're doing when you deal with David Littlefield. He's sneaky smart.

These Little Town Blues

Bitchin' Camaro