Projecting

Baseball Prospectus has made their 2005 PECOTA projections available.

So what does the Magic BP 8-Ball see for the Cardinals? A quick overview:

First off there are two players PECOTA sees as head and shoulders above the rest of baseball: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols. Both project at a VORP of ~85, and the next closest players clock in at ~60 (this doesn't take away the fact that in some respects Sean is better).

Yadier Molina projects at just about 0 VORP, but get this: Daric Barton projects at 22.4 runs above replacement. Wow. Is Barton ready to outperform Molina this year? If so the Mark Mulder trade is looking worse than we originally thought.

Speaking of Mulder, PECOTA sees him at 30.8 VORP on 182 innings pitched. Call him half a Randy. Good enough for 25th best pitcher in the Majors. Of Course PECOTA thinks Matt Morris can pull off a 20 VORP season this year, so who knows. The interesting bits about those pitchers are their collapse rates: Morris is pegged at 20% and Mulder at 13%.

Collapse Rate:

Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a pitcher's PERA will increase by at least 25% relative to his Baseline. High collapse rates are indicative of downside risk.

13% is actually very low as the values bottom out at around 10%, 20% seems high but it still means there are around 550 pitchers that PECOTA thinks have a higher chance of bombing out than Morris. Of course with a 4.72 ERA last year it isn't exactly a fall from olympian heights if he does collapse.

PECOTA thinks Danny Haren will be slightly more valuable than Jason Marquis and and Jeff Suppan this year (17.7 vs 16.6 and 17.5 respectivly).

The big story from these numbers is how advanced PECOTA sees the two prosepects the Cardinals traded away. I don't know anyone who thinks Barton could play this year, but PECOTA thinks he could, and fairly well. I've always thought Mulder was a good deal that could work out horribly, and numbers like this reinforce that notion.

So Long Mike

"When my kids grow up, I want them to be like Mike Matheny."
-- Jeff Cirillo, Brewers infielder

Mike Mathenys five years as a Cardinal are over. In that time Matheny became the poster boy for the no hit all field catcher. He won some gold gloves, made a few million dollars, and in the end what are we left with? In 2000 Matheny came to the Cardinals and had his best year at the plate ever (.261/.317/.362/.679). It's no secret to anybody who follows the Cardinals, or baseball, that Mike Matheny was a terrible hitter. But with Matheny out of our lives, it's time we took one final look at the grisly set of stats that were Mike Matheny.

Matheny has a career OBP of .293.

For 2004:

                     AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
Average NL Catcher 0.258 0.321 0.392  0.713
Mike Matheny       0.247 0.292 0.348  0.640

Mike Matheny spots 30 points of OBP and 30 points of SLG to an average NL Catcher. That's bad. Noted batsman So Taguchi managed to beat that last year. I won't belabor the point, but Matheny isn't a very good hitter.

Let me add one more line to that chart:

                     AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
Average NL Catcher 0.258 0.321 0.392  0.713
Mike Matheny       0.247 0.292 0.348  0.640
Yadier Molina      0.267 0.329 0.356  0.684

Yadier Molina, Cardinal catcher of the future (with Daric Barton gone, he most definitely is) was better than Matheny last year. He drew more walks, and had a higher batting average. He was also 12 years younger than Matheny and plays for the league minimum.

Over the years I've probably spent my share, your share, and maybe the left coast of the United States' share (although now that he's in SF that should change) of time bemoaning how bad exactly Mike Matheny the hitter was. But now that is over. I am no longer cursed with that burden.

When Matheny signed his first big contract with the Cardinals I remember reading an article where Mike described calling his dad and telling him about the contract, and how he didn't have to work any more, and that him and Mikes mother were set for life. When I heard about this new $10 million dollar contract I couldn't help but feel good for Mike. He made his money by working hard and by all accounts being a nice guy, so congratulations to him.

But I am really glad that somebody else has a chance to vent about Matheny for a few years. I think I'm going to enjoy projecting for Molina much more.

So long Mike, won't miss you at all.

Introduction: Trying to Find a Balance

My name is Josh and by way of introduction a story: Last year I was watching a game on TV via Tivo, it was a no hitter through 4. My wife asked me what I thought the chances of the pitcher taking it all the way were and I replied: "You don't talk about a no hitter! It's bad luck!".

The game had been over for 2 hours. The outcome was set. No amount of luck was going to change anything, but I held on to that superstition because baseball is a game of luck and superstition and tradition.

On the other side there are new ideas about baseball firmly planted in the Enlightenment sweeping the sport. Sabermetrics is changing how people view baseball and putting it on an almost scientific footing.

As a fan (and blogger) I'm left trying to find a balance between the emotional and the empirical. I hope you enjoy reading it.

Welcome to the Birdwatch

birdwatch (v) - To watch and study birds in their natural habitat

By birds, we mean redbirds, or Cardinals, and of course by natural habitat, we mean a baseball diamond. More specifically, we are a group of Cardinal fans who love to watch the games, analyze the moves and the stats, and just plain love the game. We've all been faithful readers of other Cardinals blogs, and some of us have even written for them, but now we're combining our efforts to maximize the value for you, the reader. So welcome fellow birdwatchers. We hope to be your guides through the ups and downs of the baseball season (and off-season). Enjoy the ride.