I'm Back

I've been neglecting the blog for the better part of three months; I apologize. The Cards are terrible, and between a job and new girlfriend I haven't had much time. Plus I think I set my goals too high for most posts... and then quit 'em when I end up not having time to finish in a timely manner. So for now, I'm going to try and post daily thoughts and try not to go too long. Let's see if this works.

The Cards are terrible, but they're still in the race. Winning lots of games this week at home and then next week against the two teams ahead of them, however, is rather crucial.

Next post (yes, it's in-depth, I couldn't help myself) comes shortly.

Some Old Friends

The turnover in baseball these days is at its highest rate it's ever been - taking the Cards as an example, we don't have but five guys who were on the roster before Yadier Molina was called up almost three years to the day ago, in June 2004: Edmonds, Pujols, Isringhausen, Rolen (Taguchi, Kennedy, and even Ankiel have been on the 25-man and either back down to the minors or traded and returned, so they don't count). So there's tons of guys out there who've donned the Birds on the Bat for a few seasons here or there recently, some of whom were quite popular during their times in St. Louis. Take the Washington Nationals, for instance: watching them play last Friday night, I came face-to-face with three guys who'd worn Cardinal uniforms since that fateful day three years ago, but had already moved on. Since they're coming to St. Louis this weekend, here's a preview of the familiar faces to be seen at Busch:

Ronnie Belliard will get his ring this weekend as the Nats come to St. Louis - he was lucky enough to wear the BoB at just the right time, from August to October 2006. He didn't really do much as a Cardinal outside of a great Division Series performance, but he's on the list nonetheless. We will never forget the 'Fro. Ronnie signed with the Nats for a remarkably cheap $750,000 in the offseason.

This season, Ronnie got off to a hot start - hitting .309/.343/.392 as recently as April 29 - but since then, he's managed just 6 singles and 4 walks in 45 PA, and been stuck in a quasi-platoon with Felipe Lopez and the triple machine that is Cristian Guzman. Against the Orioles at RFK on Friday, he came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning with the tying run on first base (then second, after a stolen base), and struck out.

Ray King was a Cardinal in 2004 and 2005, pitching two of the better seasons of his career in St. Louis. As a situational lefty, he held opposing left-handed hitters to a .150/.236/.168 line in 2004. He regressed a bit the next year, however, and while he didn't post that terrible of an ERA in his second season, his peripherals were much worse, dropping to a lefty/righty OPS split of .673/.981 in '05 after a .404/.688 in '04. That 2005 season ended poorly, as Ray was not used in the postseason and bad-mouthed Cardinal management thereafter. He was soon traded to the Rockies for Aaron Miles and Larry Bigbie.

Ray had a mediocre season as a Rockie in 2006; his strikeout rate dropped for the fifth consecutive season, and he posted a 4.43 ERA. As a National this season, Ray has struggled, posting a 6.55 ERA coming into the weekend series in St. Louis with a 5/5 K/BB ratio and 4 HR allowed in 11 innings. On Friday, he came in to start the top of the 7th inning to face the top of the O's lineup; he gave up a double to Brian Roberts before retiring Nick Markakis on a groundout. He was relieved by Winston Abreu and Roberts was stranded at second base.

And then there's Get Up Baby favorite Jason Simontacchi. Simo came up with the Cards in May 2002 when the starting rotation was decimated by injuries. He stuck by going 7-1 in his first 10 starts with the big club, posting a 2.77 ERA despite only a 26/17 K/BB in 61 2/3 IP in those starts. His ERA caught up to his peripherals in later starts, however, and he ended up at 4.02 for the season. Simo struggled out of the gate in 2003, but still made 16 starts before being demoted to the bullpen in early July. There, he proved a reliable long man, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 29/12 K/BB in 45 IP, which included one spot start late in the year. Despite his preference to start, he was slotted for that role in 2004 coming out of spring training, but gave up runs in his first four appearances and was demoted to Memphis. He was sent down and called up several times throughout the '04 season, and in those major-league appearances he only gave up 3 ER in 10 IP, but couldn't consistely crack what was a strong 'pen on that 105-win team.

After leaving the Cards after the 2004 season, Simo disappeared. Seriously. Perhaps Dan at GUB might've tracked him better and would know, but I can't find any record of him playing baseball in 2005. In '06, Simo emerged from his hiding and surfaced with the Bridgeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League. He pitched on a staff which included several former Cardinals: T.J. Mathews, Jimmy Journell, Luther Hackman, Donovan Osborne (ugh), and Pedro Borbon Jr. (yikes!). In 2007, Simo showed up in spring training with the Nats - a wise choice given the fact that only one slot in their starting rotation was set (John Patterson), and even he was injury-prone - and made two uninspiring starts in Columbus before being called up to make his first major league appearance since October 2, 2004 on May 8. Simo has actually pitched well in a Nats uniform, getting his second win in his fourth start in Cincinnati on Wednesday, and posting a 4.37 ERA with a 16/7 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP. On Friday against the O's, he gave the Nats a quality start, giving up 3 ER in 6 IP with 6 K/1 BB. Given the state of the Nats' rotation, he should stick if he continues to put up numbers that are anywhere decent.

Finally, I have to mention the former Cardinal broadcaster Bob Carpenter, who is in his second season as the Nats' play-by-play guy for the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network after spending over ten years with the Cards. Bob's been doing an excellent job, as always, with the Nats, and I'm sure those in St. Louis who remember him as fondly as yours truly does will be glad to see him back in town - just like the rest of these guys.

Catching Up

So much has happened since I last posted... I'm going to have to do bullets.

• Josh Hancock. Wow. There isn't anything I can say about the guy that hasn't been said already, but I'll probably do it anyway. The story broke while I was on the road last Sunday; I'd planned on watching the Sunday night game from my hotel room, only to arrive and hear the news of Hancock's death. After hearing the details and seeing the footage on Sportscenter that night, the first thought that I had was: "he must've been drunk." After all, how else do you fail to avoid a tow truck with its lights flashing on a clear night? Sadly, that presumption turned out to be the truth, as Hancock's blood-alcohol level was nearly twice the legal limit at 0.157 - and accident reconstruction crews have determined that he was talking on his cell phone at the time of the accident, in addition to having a small amount of marijuana in the car.

In the aftermath, the Cards have banned alcohol from the clubhouse. Frankly, what good does that do? After all, Hancock had been drinking at Shannon's, and possibly elsewhere. If these guys that want to drink can't do it in the clubhouse, they'll find someplace they can. After all, quite a few of professional baseball players are young, single and make a lot of money. Guys like that don't sit at home and do jigsaw puzzles - they go out and have a good time. The more appropriate course of action for the club to take, if they so chose, would be to provide transportation for these guys if they choose to go out drinking after games. While that may be a complicated proposition financially and/or logistically, clubs might be forced to make this sort of business decision in order to avoid tragedies such as the one involving Hancock.

• Chris Carpenter is out for "at least three months" with arthroscopic elbow surgery. We're waiting for Will Carroll's further input, but it's basically been determined that Carp's been pitching with bone spurs in his elbow for the better part of his tenure in the Cardinal organization. According to Carroll, the contract extension that Carp signed in the offseason was offered to him with that knowledge. So, perhaps the organization is taking its medicine with Carp for this season in the hopes that he can recover to at least his 2004 level in 2008-2011. As for this season, it's been rumored that Brad Thompson will take Carp's slot in the rotation for the moment. One slightly crazy option further down the road is a déja vu reunion with Jeff Weaver, who is quite possibly on the verge of being released mid-season once again by Seattle. With Mark Mulder due back by the All-Star break or so, however, this rotation slot is likely only a two-month job.

• David Eckstein, for the first time in his Cardinal career, has been removed from the leadoff spot. I guess it's a reasonable move, as Eckstein had a .280 OBP with no power and only 6 walks in 109 PA. The problem is twofold, however: 1) if Eck's not getting on base around a .350 clip, as he did in 2006, he's rather useless anywhere you put him in the lineup, and 2) who else is going to bat leadoff? Here's a list of those who've batted in the #1 slot since Eck's demotion (Eck included), with BA and OBP listed:

Preston Wilson, .219/.265
Aaron Miles, .235/.259
Skip Schumaker, .238/.267
David Eckstein, .216/.280
So Taguchi, .263/.333
Scott Spiezio, .226/.339

This isn't a good group (understatement of the month), but if it's not gonna be Eck, why not keep trying Spiezio up there? Even while not hitting for average, he's at least displayed the ability to take a walk - and with Chris Duncan and Albert Pujols the only two players on the roster even remotely hitting well, the Cards need all the baserunners they can get in front of those two guys. And with Wilson on the disabled list, Spiezio presumably will be getting more starts in right field.

• The Milwaukee Brewers seem poised to run away and hide in the NL Central. Going into Sunday's games, the Crew was ten games over .500, with a five game lead in the division - and an eight-game lead over the last-place Cardinals. With the rest of the teams in the Central showing their obvious flaws, the Brewers taking such a lead with what appears to be, on paper, the most complete team in the division could mean a very long summer for the Cards and their second-division counterparts.

Minor League Road Trip: Homer And The Gang

Don't ask me why I ended up doing something like this last Saturday night - I wasn't in a very good mood that morning, I guess. I felt like I needed to get out of town for a bit. Whatever the reason, I hopped in the car and headed in whatever direction appeared the most appealing at the moment. About eight hours (and a few side trips) later, I ended up driving through downtown Norfolk, Virginia... and it just so happened that the bright lights of Harbor Park intrigued me into stopping to see what was happening there. Sure enough, the AAA Norfolk Tides happened to be playing that night, so I bought a ticket. Then it occured to me: with all the baseball I've seen in my life - hundreds of major league games, plus a few at the college and high school levels - I had never been to a minor league ballgame... thus, I was intrigued as to what I might think of it. Little did I know that I'd end up seeing an exciting game involving a lot of familiar names - and a few names that the Cardinals will likely be getting familiar with soon. And, I thought, this could be the beginning of a fun little feature here on The Birdwatch called Minor League Road Trip; it's an idea I'd toyed with in the past, but never implemented. So I'll probably be reporting on a local minor-league game every few weeks throughout the season. Unfortunately, the Cards don't have many affiliates on the east coast - the Batavia Muckdogs (yes, that's their real name) of the short-season low-A New York-Penn League are probably the closest, and they don't start playing until June. Still, there's tons of minor league teams in a variety of leagues here in the Mid-Atlantic region going on right now, so there's always the option to scout the competition in the form of the other NL Central clubs' prospects - which, as luck would have it, I was able to do last Saturday night in Norfolk.

To read more about last Saturday's game, the highlight of which was the second AAA start by Cincinnati Reds überprospect Homer Bailey, click below.

Bailey was the Reds' first-round draft pick (7th overall) in 2004. After some mediocre seasons in the lowest levels of the minor leagues, he jumped quickly through the Reds' system in 2006 with 138 2/3 IP of 10+ K/9 ball, with a combined ERA of 2.46 in high-A and AA. Coming into the 2007 season, he sported a career strikeout rate of 10.27 K/9; unfortunately, he battled significant enough control problems in '04 to keep his career walk rate slightly above 4.0 BB/9. In his first start with the AAA Louisville Bats, he pitched 5 1/3 good innings against the Toledo Mud Hens after being spotted an early 13-0 lead; the only run was from the only hit, a solo home run by (former Cardinal!) Timo Perez. Still, he walked three batters in that first start and only struck out four, the control problems evident.

Against the Tides on Saturday, Bailey pitched about the same. On a cold, windy night Bailey was lifted after only 5 innings and 90 pitches. The batters were fooled, as he only allowed three hits, none of which were hit terribly hard - but he struggled again with control, posting the same 4/3 K/BB ratio, including putting himself into a sticky situation in the bottom of the fifth inning. With two outs, Bailey walked Tides leadoff hitter Eider Torres, who stole second. Apparently rattled, Bailey also walked Brandon Fahey, bringing up the hot-hitting J.R. House - who frankly, should be playing in Baltimore. House was fooled on a 1-2 curve in the dirt, and tried to check his swing. What followed was one of the stranger plays I've ever seen: Torres broke for third and Fahey broke for second upon seeing the catcher have trouble with the ball, causing distraction enough for a slight hesitation by catcher Dan Conway. After recovering, however, Conway elected to ask for an appeal to first base on the check swing instead of trying to throw . House had anticipated this, however, and was most of the way to first by the time the strikeout was called by the first base ump. Conway attempted to throw out House at first, but was a half-step too late. Still, Bailey got out of the jam by painting the inside corner for a called strike three on the eighth pitch of the at-bat against former Padres minor league masher Jon Knott.

Having never seen him pitch before, what struck me the most about him was the armsy, flailing nature of his delivery. I'm no expert on pitching mechanics so I can't comment on the injury risk, but he appeared to have lots of problems locating pretty much every pitch, as he just looked to be throwing as hard as he could. He hit 94 on the Tides' gun, but consistency of location was a problem. Until he can get the walk rate down a little bit, I don't anticipate him seeing a major-league roster. Still, what he's done is pretty spectacular for a kid who hasn't had his first legal drink (he turns 21 on May 3).

As for the rest of the game, I was amazed at how many names I knew on both rosters. The Bats featured Cardinal World Series nemesis Mark Bellhorn, former Yankee Bubba Crosby, Wayne Krivsky favorite Gary Majewski (who threw fifteen pitches in 1 1/3 innings without allowing a ball hit out of the infield; he looked positively nasty, perhaps his health problems are a thing of the past and he can get back to his 2005 form), as well as former cup-of-coffee-holder and sexual predator Brian Shackelford and Reds hitting prospects Norris Hopper and Joey Votto. The Tides were a little less well known, with the highlights being the aforementioned Fahey, who took over for Brian Roberts in Baltimore in 2006 and stuck as an outfielder, former Twin Terry Tiffee, and former United States Olympian and journeyman reliever Todd Williams. The Bats took an first-inning lead as Tides right fielder Luis Montanez misplayed a ball into a double which resulted in a run. Bellhorn doubled and scored in the fourth to give the Bats a 2-0 lead, but the Tides answered in the bottom half, putting runners on second and third with one out and a run in. Bailey recovered, though, by inducing a pop-up and soft fly ball to get out of the inning. The Tides tied the game off the Bats' bullpen in the seventh, getting an infield single to chase Majewski and then loading the bases with one out thanks to a couple of walks by Jason Kershner before a House sacrifice fly. The Bats took over in the top of the ninth, however; Votto broke the tie with a 2-run triple off losing pitcher Cory Doyne, opening the floodgates for a 6-spot, all with two outs. Kershner pitched a scoreless eighth for the win.

Harbor Park in Norfolk was a very nice ballpark, featuring a fan-friendly concoursewhich allowed views of the entire field and the harbor/river beyond, and not a bad seat in the house with the prices $11 and below, but on a cold night with a stiff breeze blowing straight in from center I couldn't help but spend most of the last three innings on my feet walking the park to get different views. The best parts were the hot pretzel vendors, who heated pretzels on hot coals in front of you and had tons of options for toppings, and the trains that blew their whistle as they periodically went by within view of the right field fence. That sound in twilight automatically makes me think of Roy Hobbs and the Whammer dueling as the trains whistled in the background.

And so begins the Minor League Road Trip series... we'll see where it takes us from here, but all else aside, it was a fun start.

Albert!

Mr. Pujols has come out of his slump, at least temporarily, hitting two home runs (one in the first inning off of Ben Sheets) in today's afternoon tilt against the Brewers. Albert raised his OPS - granted, it's early in the season - from .545 to .713 in one day's work. Still, he looked uncomfortable at the plate in the other two plate appearances I saw him take, once popping up weakly to first base and the second being badly fooled by Sheets pitches while striking out.

So which plate appearances do we base judgement on? Well, it's been said he's not taking enough walks, but that appears to be a slight misinformation as his P/PA on the season is as high as it's ever been in his career. Yes, his walk rate is a bit down, but it's a really small sample. I don't want to jinx anything by saying this, but Albert should be fine. In fact, we're probably more likely to see more days like this one where he'll hit a few home runs - after all, he is an awfully talented hitter - while still not entirely seeing the ball well. And when he gets in the groove, look out.

MLB Plays the Race Card

Sunday, April 15 marks the 60th anniversary of Jackie Robinson's debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers, an event that changed baseball history - and American history as a whole. Jackie was an incredible athlete - one who lettered in four sports at UCLA and was an All-American football player before settling on a career in baseball - and a strong, principled individual. He once was arrested for refusing to move to the back of a segregated military bus, long before Rosa Parks entered America's collective mind. Tributes to Jackie are everywhere; even noted bigot Todd Jones is getting into the act - he penned an article for Yahoo! about how tough it must've been for Jackie to overcome the prejudices of his teammates. (I can't make this stuff up.) So, Major League Baseball is rightfully celebrating the 60th anniversary of Jackie's debut nationwide; between these festivities and the made-for-television Civil Rights Game on March 31 featuring our Cardinals, it certainly appears MLB is pulling out all the stops to pander to the African-American portions of its fan base. And all this fanfare comes at a time which MLB's percentage of black players is at its lowest since the 1950s. According to a recent article in the Post-Dispatch:

While Major League Baseball has made recent strides in elevating the number of minorities in its front offices and the central office, it has fought a losing battle against the well-known attrition of black athletes. Of players on major league rosters last season, only 8.7 percent were African-American.

I'm getting a sinister vibe here; MLB has made a fairly public point that it will do whatever it deems necessary to maximize its profits - take the recent Extra Innings/DirectTV, uh, agreement as an example. So, just as expected in the case of Jackie Robinson Day, the public relations machine is operating at full speed ahead - MLB.com has created an entire page devoted to Jackie and the celebration on Sunday, which likely took thousands of hours from their staff writers and web design group. Large for-profit corporations such as MLB don't just spend those kinds of resources out of goodwill; they spend them, in this case, in order to gain market share. A MLB representative even admitted as much in the aforementioned Post-Dispatch article:

Baseball, Solomon said, has also fought a losing marketing battle against basketball and football.

A losing marketing battle! Other sports aside, note the absence of a similar magnitude of official MLB server space devoted to Minnie Minoso or Roberto Clemente, two pioneering Latin players of the same era. Why? Perhaps it's because baseball has a wide following in Latin America, and the Latin minority is much better represented among its players (29.4% according to the same UCF study quoted in the Post-Dispatch). The Latin market doesn't need the investment to give MLB the return it wants, so MLB has decided to spend its money on African-Americans in the hope that they will return the favor. It's not the only reason for Jackie Robinson Day, but you'll have a hard time convincing this baseball fan that the marketing aspect of the day doesn't play a part in MLB's decision to promote it as much as they have.

2007 Projections: Building Wainwright

Adam Wainwright will long be remembered as the man who threw the final pitch of the 2006 World Series, striking out Brandon Inge for the win in Game 5, a victory for the ages, yadda yadda yadda. That's all well and good, but what's next? Starting games, you say? Does the Cardinal brass really think the kid who turned in arguably the most dominant month of relief pitching in Cardinal history can suddenly become a solid young starter? Well, yeah, they do. More importantly though, are they out of their minds for changing his role after he had such success as a late-inning reliever?

Well, if the former is true, PECOTA agrees with them. And despite the fact that there's not very many similar players who made the jump from a full year of relief to a full year of starting at age 25, there is still some evidence to support this hypothesis. As for whether the latter is true, well... let's take a look. Answers to both questions are provided below.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched". This time, however, it was more than just age-related. Since the majority of Wainwright's comparable pitchers were relievers, it made more sense to choose the ones in his top 20 comparables who made the most starts in their age-25 seasons to get the "top ten"; unfortunately, there weren't enough that started in their age-25 season to fill out the ten. So, the bottom four guys on the list I used were those who made the most starts of the 11-20 range on Wainwright's comps. There are some relievers on the list, yeah, so it's skewed. But I wanted to get a bigger sample than just the four guys who were at least part-time starters; I seperated those guys out later anyway.

Adam Wainwright
age 24 (2006): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 6 HR, 22 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Ryan Madson (1st overall)
age 24 (2005): 78 G (0 GS), 87 IP, 4.14 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 11 HR, 25 BB, 79 K
age 25 (2006): 50 G (17 GS), 134 1/3 IP, 5.69 ERA (81 ERA+), 1.68 WHIP, 20 HR, 50 BB, 99 K
2. Randy Moffitt (2nd overall)
age 24 (1973): 60 G (0 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 31 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1974): 61 G (1 GS), 102 IP, 4.50 ERA (85 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 9 HR, 29 BB, 49 K
3. Adrian Devine (3rd overall)
age 24 (1976): 48 G (1 GS), 73 IP, 3.21 ERA (118 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR, 26 BB, 48 K
age 25 (1977): 56 G (2 GS), 105 2/3 IP, 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 8 HR, 31 BB, 67 K
4. Mike Garman (4th overall)
age 24 (1974): 64 G (0 GS), 81 2/3 IP, 2.64 ERA (136 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, 4 HR, 27 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1975): 66 G (0 GS), 79 IP, 2.39 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.53 WHIP, 3 HR, 48 BB, 48 K
5. Ron Davis (5th overall)
age 24 (1980): 53 G (0 GS), 131 IP, 2.95 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 32 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1981): 43 G (0 GS), 73 IP, 2.71 ERA (132 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 83 K
6. Rawly Eastwick (7th overall)
age 24 (1975): 58 G (0 GS), 90 IP, 2.60 ERA (138 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 61 K
age 25 (1976): 71 G (0 GS), 107 2/3 IP, 2.09 ERA (168 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 3 HR, 27 BB, 70 K
7. Mike Harkey (9th overall)
age 24 (1991): 4 G (4 GS), 18 2/3 IP, 5.30 ERA (73 ERA+), 1.45 WHIP, 3 HR, 6 BB, 15 K
age 25 (1992): 7 G (7 GS), 38 IP, 1.89 ERA (191 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 4 HR, 15 BB, 21 K
8. Curt Schilling (11th overall)
age 24 (1991): 56 G (0 GS), 75 2/3 IP, 3.81 ERA (92 ERA+), 1.56 WHIP, 2 HR, 39 BB, 71 K
age 25 (1992): 42 G (26 GS), 226 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA (150 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 11 HR, 59 BB, 147 K
9. Gary Glover (17th overall)
age 24 (2001): 46 G (11 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 4.93 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 16 HR, 32 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2002): 41 G (22 GS), 138 1/3 IP, 5.20 ERA (88 ERA+), 1.36 WHIP, 21 HR, 52 BB, 70 K
10. Pete Redfern (20th overall)
age 24 (1979): 40 G (6 GS), 108 1/3 IP, 3.49 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 8 HR, 35 BB, 85 K
age 25 (1980): 23 G (16 GS), 104 2/3 IP, 4.56 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 11 HR, 33 BB, 73 K

In case you're curious, those omitted were:
6th overall: Doug Bird, 1975-76 (age 25-26, reliever)
8th overall: Turk Farrell, 1959-60 (age 25-26, reliever)
10th overall: Bill Simas, 1996-97 (reliever)
12th overall: Rusty Meacham, 1992-93 (reliever)
13th overall: Rollie Fingers, 1971-72 (reliever)
14th overall: Joey McLaughlin, 1981-82 (reliever)
15th overall: Matt Anderson, 2001-02 (reliever)
16th overall: Cecilio Guante, 1984-85 (reliever)
18th overall: Steve Foucault, 1974-75 (reliever)
19th overall: Robb Nen, 1994-95 (reliever)

Averages:
age 24: 51 G (2 GS), 86 2/3 IP, 3.39 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 6.20 K/9, 0.74 HR/9, 2.89 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB
age 25: 46 G (9 GS), 111 IP, 3.62 ERA (122 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 5.90 K/9, 0.78 HR/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB
Wainwright in 2006 (rate stats included): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 2.64 BB/9, 3.27 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Wainwright in 2007: 25 G (25 GS), 151 2/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.18 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 2.85 BB/9, 2.52 K/BB

Of note:
• The thing that sticks out the most from this comparison is that on average, these guys got worse in every peripheral statistic from age 24 to age 25. Perhaps it's a condition of the sample I used; a good percentage of these guys made quite a few more starts at age 25, but still it's a bit of a shock that EVERY peripheral was worse. PECOTA forecasts the same for Wainwright as probably a casualty of the conversion to starting. Still, the forecast doesn't seem to greatly affect his ERA, as the weighted mean calls for a likely above-league-average 3.88, which would be very nice.

• Only four of the top 20 comparables made more than 7 starts in their age-25 season, which is what we all hope Wainwright will do. These four were Madson, Schilling, Glover, and Redfern. Those guys declined a lot less overall in HR/9 (0.90 to 0.94) and even improved their BB/9 (3.18 to 2.89), but their K/9 went down significantly (7.22 to 5.80) - probably from the transition to starting, as already stated. It's nice to see that the most similar guys in terms of role at age 25 handled themselves well - their ERA+ increased from 106 to 111.

• It's sort of interesting to see guys like Fingers and Nen, both of whom were regarded as a top-tier closer in their respective eras, on this list, although it maybe makes you wonder "what if".

• Curt Schilling's 1992 season was a big time breakout, easily the best campaign on the list. After arriving from the Astros in exchange for (yikes!) Jason Grimsley right before Opening Day, Schilling opened the season in the bullpen. After a sterling first month which earned him two saves and a 2.86 ERA (29 K/11 BB in 28 1/3 IP), he was moved into the Phillies' rotation to stay, and did not disappoint. Schilling pitched a whopping 198 innings of 2.27 ERA in only 26 starts (118 K/48 BB), holding hitters to a measely .539 OPS as a starter. He also completed 10 games and threw 4 shutouts. The best part? He only gave up 11 home runs in 226 1/3 innings. Wow. Wainwright almost surely won't become that kind of a stud right away (at least, not one with that kind of workload), but it's nice to see a season like that on this list nonetheless.

• Ryan Madson. Yeesh. Madson started his roller-coaster 2006 season in the Phillies' rotation, lost his job when the Phils called up phenom Cole Hamels in May, blew the win for Hamels in his major league debut, rejoined the rotation when the Phillies lost Jon Lieber to a groin injury two weeks later (and stuck for longer than anticipated thanks to Brett Myers', uh, issues in June), tied the major-league regular season record with four wild pitches in an inning in a start on July 25, then went back to the bullpen after Randy Wolf was deemed recovered from Tommy John surgery about a week later. When all was said and done, his 5.69 ERA was thanks to a fairly drastic starter/reliever split (6.28 in 90 1/3 IP as a starter, 4.50 in 44 IP as a reliever). And he just got his second loss in two games to start 2007. Yikes. We can only hope it doesn't turn out so bad.

Conclusion:
PECOTA is more optimistic about Wainwright than I am. It's gotta be hard as hell to transition from relief to starting - especially for a guy like Adam, who essentially has two pitches, fastball and curve. If Dave Duncan can teach him an effective third pitch, it's possible he could fool hitters enough to keep his HR rate down and his K rate up; however, with just two pitches in his arsenal, major league hitters ought to be good enough to figure him out eventually. That kind of stuff tends to fare better in relief. I have enough confidence in Dunc and Wainwright's makeup as a pitcher to create an effective starter; I'm just not convinced that it will happen in 2007. If Adam hits his PECOTA, I'll be pretty happy. And heck, if this starter thing doesn't work out, he could always go back to closing out playoff series, right?

Program Note: I'm leaving tomorrow afternoon for Houston. I'll be back Monday and hopefully soon thereafter, I'll have my review of Minute Maid Park. 0-3, outscored 20-2. Carp's elbow problems. Geesh. At least we've hit rock bottom early, there's nowhere to go but up!

2007 Projections: Reyes of Sunshine

Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to state that I have never seen Anthony Reyes smile. Not once. Even on his Topps baseball card from last season - a non-action shot, mind you - he looks as stoic as a mannequin. It's almost creepy. He's a great young pitcher and I have no reason to believe he isn't an upstanding guy, but please, Anthony - look like you're having a little bit of fun out there.

That aside, what we saw from him in Game 1 of the World Series in Detroit was beautiful. Just absolutely perfect. It makes me wonder how he only put up a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts in 2006, especially after such a sparkling minor league career. Well, the answer is twofold: walks and home runs. Anthony got tagged for the highest walk and home run rates of his professional career in his major-league portion of 2006. These struggles have been explained by a few different theories: 1) fatigue coming into the second half of a season in which he set a career high in innings, 2) he still continues to struggle with the two-seam fastball the organization continues to insist he throw, and 3) his mechanics are out of whack. Whatever the reason, will the trend continue into 2007? Let's take a look, in the same manner we took a look at Chris Duncan's 2007 projection, after the jump.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched".

Anthony Reyes
age 24 (2006): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 17 HR, 34 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Bob Sebra (1st overall)
age 24 (1986): 17 G (13 GS), 91 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66 K
age 25 (1987): 36 G (27 GS), 177 1/3 IP, 4.42 ERA (95 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 15 HR, 67 BB, 156 K
2. James Baldwin (2nd overall)
age 24 (1996): 28 G (28 GS), 169 IP, 4.42 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 24 HR, 57 BB, 127 K
age 25 (1997): 32 G (32 GS), 200 IP, 5.27 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.44 WHIP, 19 HR, 83 BB, 140 K
3. Tommy Greene (3rd overall)
age 24 (1991): 36 G (27 GS), 207 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 19 HR, 66 BB, 154 K
age 25 (1992): 13 G (12 GS), 64 1/3 IP, 5.32 ERA (66 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 5 HR, 34 BB, 39 K
4. Paul Moskau (5th overall)
age 24 (1978): 26 G (25 GS), 145 IP, 3.97 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP, 17 HR, 57 BB, 88 K
age 25 (1979): 21 G (15 GS), 106 1/3 IP, 3.89 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.49 WHIP, 9 HR, 51 BB, 58 K
5. Brett Tomko (6th overall)
age 24 (1997): 22 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 3.43 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.21 WHIP, 14 HR, 47 BB, 95 K
age 25 (1998): 34 G (34 GS), 210 2/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 22 HR, 64 BB, 162 K
6. Paul Rigdon (7th overall)
age 24 (2000): 17 G (16 GS), 87 1/3 IP, 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 18 HR, 35 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2001): 15 G (15 GS), 79 1/3 IP, 5.79 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.66 WHIP, 13 HR, 46 BB, 49 K
7. Albie Lopez (8th overall)
age 24 (1996): 13 G (10 GS), 62 IP, 6.39 ERA (77 ERA+), 1.65 WHIP, 14 HR, 22 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1997): 37 G (6 GS), 76 2/3 IP, 6.93 ERA (68 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, 11 HR, 40 BB, 63 K
8. Doug Drabek (9th overall)
age 24 (1987): 29 G (28 GS), 176 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 22 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
age 25 (1988): 33 G (32 GS), 219 1/3 IP, 3.08 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 21 HR, 50 BB, 127 K
9. Gil Meche (11th overall)
age 24 (2003): 32 G (32 GS), 186 1/3 IP, 4.59 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 30 HR, 63 BB, 130 K
age 25 (2004): 23 G (23 GS), 217 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA (86 ERA+), 1.46 WHIP, 21 HR, 47 BB, 99 K
10. Eric Rasmussen (13th overall)
age 24 (1976): 43 G (17 GS), 150 1/3 IP, 3.53 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, 10 HR, 54 BB, 76 K
age 25 (1977): 34 G (34 GS), 233 IP, 3.48 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 24 HR, 63 BB, 120 K

In case you're curious, the omitted two were:
4th overall: Ron Schueler, 1973-74 (age 25-26)
10th overall: Ray Washburn, 1963-64 (age 25-26)
12th overall: Don Cardwell, 1960-61 (made 38 starts in '61, too many for accurate comparison)

Averages:
age 24: 26 G (22 GS), 140 IP, 4.07 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 1.14 HR/9, 3.03 BB/9, 2.04 K/BB
age 25: 28 G (23 GS), 149 1/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB
Reyes in 2006 (rate stats included): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 7.59 K/9, 1.79 HR/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Reyes in 2007: 29 G (29 GS), 168 1/3 IP, 3.81 ERA. 7.54 K/9, 1.18 HR/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB

Notes:
• The thing that stuck out the most was that the majority of these guys put up worse seasons at age 25 than at age 24. Most increased their workload (at the major league level, at least), but only three of the ten had a better ERA+ at age 25 than at age 24. And those three (Moskau, Drabek, and Rasmussen) all had only modest increases. In terms of won-lost record, this sample fared much worse in their age-25 seasons as well. I didn't include those numbers in the lists above (since these things aren't entirely performance-related), but overall this group posted a record of 88-75 at age 24, while dropping to 78-92 at age 25.

• Not only is this a list of guys who struggled at age 25, there are some ugly names among the more recent guys. Brett Tomko? Albie Lopez? Paul Rigdon? James Baldwin? Gil Meche? Yes, Meche got a huge contract this offseason, but ugh. Lopez was terrible, Rigdon disappeared (more later), Tomko never got any better and became a reliever, like Baldwin, and Meche hasn't had a league-average season since. It's not an inspiring group.

• Nobody on the list really seemed to have a season similar to Reyes' at age 24. Perhaps Rigdon, but his major and minor league K rates were far worse than Reyes', and I don't . None of these guys, actually, put up the K's in the minors or majors quite like Anthony. Makes you wonder why they're comparables. But none of the ones mentioned above who put up a better ERA+ in their age-25 season appear to compare to Reyes. A stud performance like Drabek's would be a nice bar to set, as Anthony has proven to have even better command, but he has to prove he will be more consistent with said command, in addition to his health, at the major league level.

• As stated before, Rigdon is a bit of a mystery. He didn't play in the majors past 2001, and the last news I saw of him in any team's system was his being assigned to the Red Sox's minor league camp in March 2004. He evidently had some, uh, involuntary plastic surgery done back in '01, but that didn't seem like it would've been career-ending. It's spooky seeing a guy end his professional baseball career before the age of 30, especially since he was pretty decent in small doses after he got sent down to the minors. I wonder what happened to him.

• PECOTA has a lot more faith in Anthony than his comparable players have justified. The projection looks for Anthony to keep his K rate slightly below his career level in the major leagues, but more importantly it believes that his career high walk and home run rates from 2006 are fluky based on solid rates from his minor-league days. And that translates to a solid ERA of 3.81. I think we'll all take that, as many are not so bullish on Reyes, but it's nice to know that the computer models are on our side. And unlike Chris Duncan, playing time shouldn't be a huge issue - if he is healthy and remotely effective, he could get to 200 innings if La Russa decides he doesn't have faith in what appears to be a shaky bullpen.

To conclude, I'm less optimistic about Reyes than PECOTA is. And it doesn't have anything to do with the comparables. Anthony pitched 181 1/3 IP total in 2006, far above his previous career high of 140. As linked before, there are concerns about the velocity on his fastball decreasing over the past year, and I am in the camp that if there was a decrease, it was probably fatigue-related. My bold prediction is this: if Anthony can physically handle the workload that will likely be demanded of him in 2007, I see no reason he won't improve on his ERA from 2006. But if he can't, and he is continually thrown to the wolves despite only throwing 88-90 mp on his 4-seam fastball... it could be ugly. So let's hope Anthony throws free and easy this season... and maybe, just maybe, cracks a smile.

Open Thread: He's Already Pulled Over, He Can't Pull Over Any More

So, yeah, everyone's heard about it by now. And plenty of people, both inside and outside of Cardinal Nation have put in their two cents on the matter. But I implore you, the loyal readers of The Birdwatch: what do you think?

My opinion: hell yeah, he made a mistake. Should he be punished? Yes, and the state of Florida will take care of that. Should we judge him for this mistake? No. Why? He's human. People make mistakes - and celebrity or not, the decent thing to do is to forgive. It's obvious Tony is an upstanding guy. He has a clean record into his 60s, for God's sakes - what percentage of the population can say that? He knows he screwed up. I'd be willing to wager just about anything that he doesn't do it again, because he's just that kind of guy. He hates to fail his team on the field, and when he does he works his ass off to make up for it. What makes you think he wouldn't do the same in a situation like this? I say don't worry, Tony - here at The Birdwatch, we've (or at least I've) got your back.

UPDATE: Bill McClellan has a nice article on the topic as well.

And amazingly enough, that isn't the only Cardinal-related controversy of the week. Yikes. It's tough being on top.

Program note: Reyes and Wainwright projections to come... this weekend!

Death, Taxes, And...

...Mark Prior and Kerry Wood on the disabled list. Seriously, hasn't that happened every year since 2003? It's up for debate as to the cause of these injuries, but I'm in the camp that all those 120+ pitch outings back in '03 certainly can't have helped things. The Cubs haven't won anything since Prior and Wood went down, and I have a hard time believing they will this year without either of them pitching remotely effectively. Ted Lilly? Jason Marquis? Yeah, good luck with that.

Thanks, Dusty; your gift just keeps on giving!

2007 Projections: St. Louis Runs On Duncan

Photo courtesy Rick Bowmer, AP

Way back in the early days of The Birdwatch, I took on the challenge of projecting the performance of the Cards' 2005 starting outfield based on their ten most similar players from baseball-reference.com. Those three outfielders were united by the fact that they were all rather old, and faced inevitable statistical declines. This time around, however, I'm going to take a look at three key players to the success of the 2007 Cardinals: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, and Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, these guys are too new to the majors to have similar players on B-R, so I've resorted to the glory that is PECOTA for their comparables. Yes, PECOTA has their own nifty projections, and I'll take a look at those after I'm done to determine their level of optimism.

So without further ado, let's start this bad boy off by taking a look at Chris Duncan (pictured above), the Cards' probable starting left fielder - after the jump, of course.

A bit about the method to my madness:

PECOTA does things a little differently than Bill James (whose formula B-R.com uses to compute similarity scores). For one, there's nothing in the database that computes similarity scores based on age - it's based on season-by-season progression. So, for example, Duncan's career going into 2007 is deemed to be most similar to Mike Epstein's career going into 1969. Since both Epstein and Duncan were both coming off their age-25 seasons, I consider it a viable comparison. However, Duncan's third-most similar career was Jason Thompson's going into 1980. However, Thompson was coming off his age-24 season going into 1980. Because of the age difference, I don't see Thompson to be as comparable a player as say, Michael Tucker going into 1997. Tucker was Duncan's 12th-most comparable player, but he was also coming off his age-25 season. My point with all of this? Instead of using PECOTA's 10 most comparables overall, I used the 10 highest comparables at the same age as Duncan (and on later projections, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright). It's a touchy distinction to make, but I feel as though it's relevant for this particular study. Also of note: when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I just weighted it based on plate appearances - but I didn't really want to go back and look up league averages for 30 different years and weight them all just to have the final product turn out pretty much the same, if not exactly the same. Forgive me, I'm lazy. Anyway, here's the group I ended up with:

Chris Duncan
age 25 (1968): 90 G, 314 PA, .293/.363/.589, 141 OPS+
age 26 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-26 Season
1. Mike Epstein (1st overall)
age 25 (1968): 123 G, 448 PA, .234/.338/.366, 117 OPS+
age 26 (1969): 131 G, 500 PA, .278/.414/.551, 175 OPS+
2. Carlos Pena (2nd overall)
age 25 (2003): 131 G, 516 PA, .248/.332/.440, 107 OPS+
age 26 (2004): 142 G, 561 PA, .241/.338/.472, 112 OPS+
3. Eric Anthony (6th overall)
age 25 (1993): 145 G, 539 PA, .249/.319/.397, 94 OPS+
age 26 (1994): 79 G, 288 PA, .237/.297/.412, 80 OPS+
4. Ben Grieve (7th overall)
age 25 (2001): 154 G, 639 PA, .264/.372/.387, 102 OPS+
age 26 (2002): 136 G, 561 PA, .251/.353/.432, 108 OPS+
5. Ryan Klesko (8th overall)
age 25 (1996): 153 G, 602 PA, .282/.364/.530, 127 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 143 G, 522 PA, .261/.334/.490, 111 OPS+
6. Ron Swoboda (9th overall)
age 25 (1969): 109 G, 375 PA, .235/.326/.361, 91 OPS+
age 26 (1970): 115 G, 289 PA, .233/.340/.392, 96 OPS+
7. Lee Thomas (10th overall)
age 25 (1961): 132 G, 345 PA, .285/.353/.491, 114 OPS+
age 26 (1962): 160 G, 439 PA, .290/.355/.467, 123 OPS+
8. Ryan Langerhans (11th overall)
age 25 (2005): 128 G, 373 PA, .267/.348/.426, 99 OPS+
age 26 (2006): 131 G, 369 PA, .241/.350/.378, 90 OPS+
9. Michael Tucker (12th overall)
age 25 (1996): 108 G, 393 PA, .260/.346/.442, 101 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 138 G, 554 PA, .283/.347/.445, 105 OPS+
10. Paul O'Neill (13th overall)
age 25 (1988): 145 G, 533 PA, .252/.306/.414, 102 OPS+
age 26 (1989): 117 G, 480 PA, .276/.346/.446, 123 OPS+

In case you're curious, the 3rd through 5th overall were:
Jason Thompson, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Willie Aikens, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Mel Hall, 1985-86 (age 24-25)

Averages:
age 25: 133 G, 432 PA, .259/.341/.429, 106 OPS+ (16 HR, 60 RBI)
age 26: 129 G, 417 PA, .263/.350/.455, 115 OPS+ (18 HR, 65 RBI)
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Duncan: 452 PA, .273/.356/.488 (20 HR, 65 RBI)

The concensus is, as it should be, a slight improvement from age-25 to age-26. This sample, in fact, made less plate appearances on average in their age-26 seasons, due to factors ranging from injuries to strike years, but produced more raw HR/RBI numbers - most likely thanks to a better lineup spot and increased production.

Of note:
• The biggest gainer on the list was clearly Epstein, posting an oh-so-pretty .278/.414/.551 line for the 2nd-generation Washington Senators in '69, which translates to a 175 OPS+ thanks to a pitcher-friendly era and park effect. I drool a little when I look at his 85/99 BB/K ratio from that season, but playing under Ted Williams and with the likes of Frank "Hondo" Howard might've helped his approach a little bit. Also, he probably benefitted greatly from the increased hitting environment following the Year of the Pitcher in '68; the league average OPS in his parks went up 50 points in '69 from the previous year. If Duncan can put up a .414 OBP batting in the 2-hole ahead of a healthy Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds, the Cards would score a ton of runs despite the Juan Encarnacion-sized hole in the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, I think a year like that is hopelessly optimistic to expect out of him.

• The player who had the most similar season to Duncan's 2006 in his age-25 campaign was probably Klesko - and his percentages dropped across the board the next year. Still, at .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in '97, his 111 OPS+ age-26 season was better than a lot of guys on this list. I wouldn't be too upset if Duncan duplicated those numbers in '07.

• PECOTA is higher on Duncan than the comparable player averages are. In fact, in terms of raw offense, PECOTA even considers him to be the Cardinals' best outfielder in 2007, narrowly outVORPing Jim Edmonds 22.5 to 22.3.

• Playing time is a big factor in projecting what Duncan will do in 2007. Based on his past struggles against left-handed pitching (.204/.250/.429 career) and his liabilities on defense, it's hard to see La Russa playing him against any lefties at all, or late in games during which the Cardinals have a lead. Thus, 500 PA is a bit of a stretch. Even PECOTA's 452 PA projection might not be attained if Chris struggles in April and May - we all know Tony can have a short leash with young hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals also have a glut of outfielders, with Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, John Rodriguez, and even Scott Spiezio all on the 40-man roster. Barring a trade or long-term injury, all of those guys will have a role and get their plate appearances - which lessens the opportunities for Duncan.

• I was moderately surprised not to see St. Louis native Ryan Howard on this list; he wasn't even in Duncan's top twenty comparables. The major league numbers of the two players are virtually identical through their age-25 campaigns, but upon further review, it appears Howard had much gaudier numbers in AA and AAA, which PECOTA takes into account. The other clear difference: the Phillies traded Jim Thome to make way for Howard to be the full-time starter at first base going into the 2006 season, allowing him to get 700 PA without any major threats from the bench. As mentioned above, Duncan could repeat his 2006 rates and still only get 500 PA thanks to La Russa's obsession with playing the matchups.

In conclusion, I think Chris Duncan is an interesting case. (Of course I can use that cliché, dammit, why else would I write about him?) My personal opinion is that the PECOTA projection will probably be closer - he's a big kid, and I don't see him losing the pop in his bat overnight. True, a few of those home runs might clank off the wall as doubles, but I don't see him slugging below .500 if he keeps the batting average up. I trust he'll see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of the big boppers (yet another cliché, but it's true), so assuming he remains as selective as he was last year at times, he could probably manage a decent OBP. But I have a feeling that last year's numbers are quite possibly a best-case scenario. Worst case? He bats .200 through April and May and continues to struggle in left field, and sees his playing time decrease to the point that he's just a left-handed power bat off the bench. Still, if I were a betting man (NCAA Tournament pools aside), I'd take the over when it comes to his PECOTA projection. Let the kid play, let's see what he can do.

Dipping Into the Pool

Not to act too much like a mainstream journalist or anything, but I came across this post on Al's Ramblings and had to repeat it here:

I'm going to paraphrase Bob Uecker from this weekend.

"If you're scoring at home to spring training games, you must be out of your mind."

That's not to suggest that spring training and spring training games have no importance, but it certainly does suggest that you cannot assume a consistent level of competition, talent, and effort throughout.

How [uh, Chris Duncan] progresses defensively is more noteworthy than who is leading the team in batting average, for example. Relax, enjoy the games, and pay attention to the little things players are working on instead of the big things, like who won or lost.

As mentioned before, I don't really get into spring training. The season's a month away, there is way too much Brian Falkenborg than I'm comfortable with watching, and there's college basketball on anyway. The big event this week is Selection Sunday.

However, it is time to prepare for the upcoming season, so we here at The Birdwatch have done a little housekeeping. The links on the left sidebar have been updated, at long last; many had gone idle in the two years since that had last been done. (Note: if you have a blog or site that you would like us to link to, feel free to drop me an email.) In addition, this particular "journalist" is going to do his utmost best to post at least once a week until the season starts, and up that to twice a week during the season. Some forthcoming posts include:

• Chris Duncan projection using the comparative analysis shown here
• Anthony Reyes projection
• Adam Wainwright projection
• Minute Maid Park review
• Wrigley Field review/photographic essay (depending on my travel schedule)
• Something steroid-related (since it's hard to avoid the subject)

So strap yourselves in, people, it's going to be a fun year.

I Wish I Was As Fortunate, As Fortunate As Me

One of the biggest differences between me and the stereotypical baseball fan rears its ugly head around this time every year: I just can't get excited about spring training. Yes, pitchers and catchers reported on Valentine's Day, and full-squad workouts began soon thereafter, but all that means nothing to me. The only day marked I mean, it's not like these guys take this stuff too seriously anyway. And these nationally televised spring training games - who watches this stuff? Is a Chris Narveson start that appealing to the viewing public?

Still, even though I don't really want to watch the Kyle Snyders of the world facing Rick Ankiel all day long, that doesn't mean I'm not thinking about baseball. There's fantasy drafts, roster moves, far-flung rumors, plenty of intrigue. Everyone has an opinion about what their team should or shouldn’t be doing. Even yours truly, anti-spring training extraordinaire, has to get up on a soapbox every once in awhile. And with the Cards, there’s plenty to talk about. So here’s my wish list for the next month and, well, beyond:

1) Trade Juan Freaking Encarnacion. I don’t care if he gets the Tino treatment, where we pay some of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs named Evan Rust, but he just needs to go. With Chris Duncan, Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds, John Rodriguez, So Taguchi, and even Scott Spiezio on the roster (not to mention Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker), there’d be someone around capable of taking his at-bats and putting up at least Juan’s .280/.315/.430 line. Above average defense is not worth that big a hole in the lineup. And none of those guys, with the exception of Edmonds, is going to make anywhere close to $11.5 million in 2007-08. This one's really a holdover from last year - I couldn't stand looking at the guy throughout most of 2006, and I just don't want to have to repeat that in '07.
2) Remain flexible with Adam Wainwright. A scenario, if I may: Jason Isringhausen declares his hip pain-free throughout spring training and pitches effectively. Braden Looper turns into Kent Bottenfield circa 1999 and wins the fifth starter’s job. Wainwright continues to pitch effectively – he pitched three scoreless innings in his first outing the other day – and also ends up in the rotation. On a cold night in early April, however, Isringhausen plants and slips, re-aggravating his hip injury and forcing him to the disabled list for two months. What was a decent-looking bullpen could end up in shambles - if La Russa is insistent on keeping guys in the rotation once they’ve earned a slot (at least, I guess, until Mark Mulder comes back), who would become the closer in that situation? Josh Kinney? Brad Thompson? Ryan Franklin (cringe)? I implore you, Tony: at least remain open to the idea of Wainwright returning to the ‘pen in the event of another Isringhausen injury.
3) Don’t rush Mark Mulder back. As bad as Ryan Franklin, Kip Wells, Brad Thompson, Braden Looper, etc., may be, they still may be better than a Mulder that is less than 100%. The recent news regarding Mulder’s mechanics problems has not been encouraging; in addition, there is not a lot of precedent (based on lboros’ fabulous research over at VEB) for pitchers to have immediate success coming off similar shoulder surgeries. So unless the Cards are really desperate (i.e., Looper/Franklin/Thompson is struggling mightily) when Mulder is ready to return in June or July, they would be much better off to let him work out any problems with his mechanics with at least three starts down in Memphis.
4) Everybody just relax. We just won the freaking World Series, people. The last two defending champs disintegrated into giant balls of angst within both the clubhouse, press and the fan base. Let’s not put ourselves through that. Why sweat the small stuff? Like, for example, whether Aaron Miles is getting 150 plate appearances as opposed to 100, who the fifth starter is going to be, or bugging me about the fact that I totally contradicted my first three wishes with this one. Or getting on Tony. I'd say he's earned a season without Cardinal Nation second-guessing him at the very least. Let’s just sit back and enjoy the play of Mr. Pujols and the boys - win or loss - and coast our way through the first season as defending champs in 24 years. We deserve it.

As the Ronnie Belliard Turns

So, I'm sure everyone's heard by now about our good friend Ronnie Belliard's legal difficulties. Belliard had a sordid affair with a young lady, who supposedly ended up pregnant. The rest is pure soap opera genius:

Laura Edwards and the athlete had an "encounter" on Sept. 29 and she left messages for him in late October or early November. He had a friend call back. That friend's message was returned by George Edwards, who met with the friend and said his daughter was pregnant and wanted money.

The friend offered several thousand dollars. Later in November, a sports agent worked out a deal to pay $25,000 for a paternity test, and $125,000 more if the child was the athlete's.

Oh, the life of a professional athlete. Knock 'em up and pay 'em off. Things went awry with that little plan, however, as the father of the young lady decided that Ronnie's $150k payoff wasn't enough. So he got served with an extortion charge, and the whole thing gets thrown out into the public arena. Yippee!

Belliard, incidentally, went 0-for-4 with a K on September 30. Must've been a hell of an "encounter".

Some More Of This Fantasy Stuff: Cards Fantasy Preview

Once again, I return to the fantasy baseball realm. This time, however, it's to sift through our beloved Redbirds to see which are worth your fantasy buck and, well... which aren't. It's tough to correctly evaluate your favorite teams' players from a fantasy perspective (I think that's how I ended up with 7 Orioles on my "A-team" roster last year), but I'll do my best. Again, the previous disclaimer says I'm no expert, but hey, you get what you pay for.

I'll break down the 25-man roster (and more), position-by-position, below.

Players on the Cards' presumed 25-man roster are listed here. Their age and 2006 stats in a 5 & 5 league follow, along with select others that I like to use to further evaluate my team.

CATCHERS:
Yadier Molina, age 24, 461 PA, .216/29/6/49/1, 54 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career
Gary Bennett, age 35, 170 PA, .223/13/4/22/0, 56 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career

Oh, Yady. His awesome postseason (.358/.424/.547) screams small sample size, but it also provides a glimpse of what Yady might actually be able to do at the plate if he didn't give away at-bats at times to focus on being a great Defensive Catcher in the La Russa mold. His OPS+ has actually decreased every year since he entered the league, and he's still only 24 in 2007 - so I see no reason why he shouldn't improve on his 2006 season. How much unfortunately depends on Yady himself, whether he stays healthy, and whether he gets off to a better start. His career OPS in March and April is .388; his worst other calendar month is .626, which is only 7 hundredths below his career average. If he can get off to a postseason-like start, it might actually motivate Yady to focus on his offense as well as his defense. He's been durable, and was sixth among catchers in the NL in plate appearances in 2006 despite missing a few games in the middle of the year. (Unfortunately, most AL catchers average more thanks to the DH; I usually stay away from NL catchers peronally.) So... if everything goes right, I wouldn't be shocked to see a .290/40/12/60/0 season out of him, which would be worth a pick in the (very) later rounds or a pickup off the waiver wire if you have a Johnny Estrada-type (i.e., injury-prone) as your starter. Yady won't score any runs or steal any bases because he's slow and bats 8th, but he could get enough PAs with men on base to generate a lot of very cheap RBIs with a decent average and a few extra HR. If he repeats his 2006 numbers, however, he has no value.

Bennett has no value, even if Molina is injured.

FIRST BASEMEN
Albert Pujols, age 27, 634 PA, .331/119/49/137/7, 180 OPS+ in 2006, 171 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan, age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

King Albert should go first overall in every league that isn't extremely pitching-heavy. His only concern is a slowly increasing fragility; his 143 games played in 2006 was a career low. Plantar fasciitis and an eerie abdominal strain have weighed him down the past two seasons, but he has yet to show it in his performance. His slugging percentage and HR rate in 2006 were both career highs; he would've easily posted his first 50-HR season if he'd had a few more games to do so. I see no reason he shouldn't finally do it in 2007 if he stays healthy, with incredible numbers all across the board.

Duncan and Spiezio both played 10+ games at 1B in '06, which makes them both eligible in standard Yahoo leagues. Duncan is an interesting case, although he's probably more valuable as an OF than a 1B. I'll discuss his case more in that section. Barring several major injuries, Spiezio won't get enough ABs to be a factor.

SECOND BASEMEN
Adam Kennedy, age 31, 503 PA, .273/50/4/55/16, 90 OPS+ in 2006, 91 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

Kennedy comes back to the Cards after seven years in Anaheim thanks to being part of the Jim Edmonds trade after the 1999 season. He very rarely hits for power, and typically batted ninth in Anaheim so he didn't drive in or score very many runs. What he does is hit for average (sometimes) and steals a few bases. His best fantasy season, which took place in the Halos' championship season of 2002, saw Kennedy hit .312 and steal 17 bases. That's not much, and that would probably be a best-case scenario in St. Louis. I'd say he's not even worth drafting at the moment despite a fairly weak 2B pool (which, as I mentioned in a previous post, makes Chase Utley an extremely valuable guy to have). However, if you're looking for a guy to fill a roster spot for a couple weeks to fill an injury or while a Howie Kendrick or Dan Uggla type encounters a bit of a sophomore slump, you could do worse off the waiver wire, especially if he keeps that average over .300.

Miles had his best season in 2006, which obviously is saying very little. If you'd have told me a year ago that Aaron Miles saw 471 plate appearances for the '06 Cards, I'd have said you were crazy. And it could've been more if Ronnie Belliard hadn't shown up. Despite his starting gig, Miles probably wasn't worth a roster spot last year, and he definitely shouldn't be this year as a utility man.

SHORTSTOPS
David Eckstein, age 32, 552 PA, .292/68/2/23/7, 81 OPS+ in 2006, 88 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

David Eckstein's Cardinal debut in 2005 was arguably the best season of his career, but his 2006 was a struggle. After hitting .300 through the first half of the season, injuries and inconsistency pushed Eck's numbers down to what amounts to possibly his worst fantasy season. For a leadoff man, he doesn't score a whole lot of runs or steal a whole lot of bases. And he certainly doesn't hit for power. What he does, though, is get on base. His two seasons as a Cardinal produced OBPs of .363 and .350. So, perhaps he's more valuable to the Cards than he would be to anybody's fantasy team. Still, he'll probably get drafted fairly high thanks to two straight All-Star appearances and the whole World Series MVP thing.

As mentioned before, Miles has zero fantasy value as a utilityman.

THIRD BASEMEN
Scott Rolen, age 32, 594 PA, .296/94/22/95/7, 127 OPS+ in 2006, 129 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

Rolen struggled down the stretch in '06 but still finished with numbers pretty much on par with his career averages. He'll be a top-five or so fantasy 3B, but there's a lot of ways you can get good, cheap/late round players at this position that aren't a whole lot worse. Think Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Teahen, etc. Those guys are health risks, but so is Rolen. If he can put up numbers similar to '06, he's worth a 6th round pick or so. If he doesn't stay healthy, however, it could get ugly - and not just with his stats, after what happened in last year's postseason between Rolen and La Russa. Spiezio would be a decent roster addition if Rolen was hurt, but he'd have to put up numbers similar to his '06 to be worth starting in anything but the deepest of leagues.

OUTFIELDERS
Juan Encarnacion (CF/RF), age 31, 598 PA, .278/74/19/79/6, 94 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Preston Wilson (LF/RF), age 32, 537 PA, .263/58/17/72/12, 84 OPS+ in 2006, 103 OPS+ career
Jim Edmonds (CF), age 37, 408 PA, .257/90/19/70/4, 111 OPS+ in 2006, 137 OPS+ career
So Taguchi (LF/CF), age 37, 361 PA, .266/46/2/31/11, 79 OPS+ in 2006, 90 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio (LF), 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan (LF/RF), age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career

What a mess. The lack of clarity about how many plate appearances each one of these guys will get definitely jumbles the fantasy picture here. Edmonds is clearly the best of any of these options and will be the starting CF when healthy, but his health is a concern coming off his fewest games played as a Cardinal. Encarnacion is durable and will likely be guaranteed most of the starts in RF, but he's really not that good. Duncan surprised last year, and could get to 30 HR this season - but he won't play against lefties, and probably will lose a few late-game ABs to Taguchi or even Wilson as defensive replacements. 500 PAs wouldn't be a stretch, though, if he produces close to his 2006 level. But if Duncan slumps, La Russa might have a quicker trigger for a young player like him than a vet like Encarnacion. Wilson will likely start for Duncan or maybe even Edmonds against lefties, but barring a long-term injury to one of the three current starters or major struggles from Duncan, won't get enough PAs to be a worthwhile fantasy contributor. Taguchi provided slightly-below league-average offense in 2004 and 2005 off the Cardinals' bench, but struggled hitting for power in '06 before hitting a big HR in Game 2 of the NLCS. He won't play enough in 2007 to make a fantasy impact. Spiezio will get even less ABs as an OF, but could provide some value as an OF or 3B with a long-term injury to Scott Rolen.

STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Carpenter, age 32, 221 2/3 IP, 15/0/184/3.09/1.07, 143 ERA+ in 2006, 112 ERA+ career
Mark Mulder, age 29, 93 1/3 IP, 6/0/50/7.14/1.70, 62 ERA+ in 2006, 109 ERA+ career
Kip Wells, age 30, 44 1/3 IP, 2/0/20/6.50/1.85, 70 ERA+ in 2006, 99 ERA+ career
Anthony Reyes, age 25, 85 1/3 IP, 5/0/72/5.06/1.38, 87 ERA+ in 2006, 92 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career
Ryan Franklin, age 34, 77 1/3 IP, 6/0/43/4.54/1.54, 103 ERA+ in 2006, 100 ERA+ career
Brad Thompson, age 25, 56 2/3 IP, 1/0/32/3.34/1.38, 132 ERA+ in 2006, 138 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career

Again, a bit of a mess, but there's a bit less value here than among the outfielders. Carpenter will be a stud, as mentioned previously. Frankly, there's only a handful of pitchers I'd rather have on my roster: Santana, Peavy, Webb, Oswalt, maybe one or two others. Aside from Carp, however, there's no other sure things here. Reyes and Wainwright have lots of potential, but both will likely be given a short leash by La Russa, restricting their innings and quite possibly win totals. Wainwright's role is still somewhat up in the air, but assuming Jason Isringhausen is healthy to begin the season (and all indications are saying he will be) and given a bullpen that appears fairly deep, Wainwright will start. Wainwright (along with Looper or Thompson if they win a rotation slot) also will likely not be eligible as a SP until he clears the minimum number of starts, since he didn't start a game in 2006. Mulder is the only other Cardinal starter who will have any fantasy value, and that is up for debate. He had shoulder surgery late in the 2006 season and won't pitch until June or July. Still, the Cards signed him for two years. Given the struggles of other recent shoulder-surgery patients, the likelihood of Mulder coming back strong this season is pretty low. Still, he'll almost surely be given the chance to make his 20 starts or so, and with a solid team he might get you a few cheap wins off the waiver wire (or late in the draft). Thompson and especially Looper are intriguing (at least to me) if they gained a starting job, but that's not likely. But they, or Franklin if he wins the fifth spot, will likely give way to Mulder when he returns in July, so take their rotation spot with a grain of salt. Franklin is ultimately worthless, even if he does win the fifth starter's job.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Jason Isringhausen, age 34, 58 1/3, 4/33/52/3.55/1.46, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 117 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career

It's pretty straightforward here: Isringhausen will likely be healthy and ready to start the 2007 season after offseason surgery, so he will be given the majority of save opportunities. Wainwright shined in relief in 2006, but appears to be in line for a starting gig. Looper is probably the de facto backup closer if Wainwright moves into the rotation and could pick up a stray few . Others such as Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney are intriguing possibilities in the deepest of leagues that involve middle relief, but likely won't contribute under standard league formats.

So there it is. Tony La Russa's teams don't provide a whole lot of fantasy value outside of the stars since he likes to control his matchups so much, but there are a few sleepers here. Edmonds could bounce back from an ugly 2006, Molina could finally figure it out with the bat, and Wainwright and/or Reyes could break out as a starter. So choose wisely, and good luck to your fantasy teams in 2007.

Shameless Fantasy Self-Promotion

I try never to use this website for personal benefit. Right now, however, I have a bit of a dilemma. I'm in a fantasy baseball quasi-keeper league, and I'm coming off a dominant season in which my team had the best regular season record by 2½ games - 1 game per week - in a 22-week season (and, for the record, lost in the finals when several key players went down with injuries). My roster was stacked with guys who I acquired either thanks to luck, great timing, good trading, or a solid draft - and had a few career seasons and a little overachievement mixed in. I'd love to keep the majority of them - in fact, I'm pretty confident I would be the top team in the league next year if I could keep my entire roster. However, I'm only able to keep four players, and I have way too many choices for those four. And I believe I'm only allowed to keep one of the four after 2007, or perhaps it's 2008, I'm not sure which. So, I'm soliciting the advice of fellow fantasy baseballers all over Cardinal Nation: help a brother out! And perhaps, if you're considering keeping or drafting any of these guys, you could find my analysis useful. (Ha!) Hard data is after the jump...

Anyway, here's my options for keepers in no particular order, with age for the 2007 season, 2006 stats, and comments shown for each. The league is a standard 5 & 5 with a few extra position players (2 extra IF, 2 extra OF in addition to the regular lineup + Util) and pitchers (3 SP total, 2 RP total, 3 extra P) on each roster. And we do a standard draft, not the auction format, if that makes a difference.

Ryan Howard (1B Phi) - age 27 - .313 AVG/104 R/58 HR/149 RBI/0 SB
This one's pretty much a no-brainer, even if he declines a little in the HR numbers. The Phillies' lineup is stacked, and he'll be hungry if he doesn't get paid this winter. Unless, of course, he goes into Operation Shutdown or something. Howard was my fifth round pick in '06, and he'd be a sure first rounder this year if he were to be drafted.

Chris Carpenter (SP StL) - age 32 - 221.2 IP/15 W/0 SV/184 K/3.09 ERA/1.07 WHIP
I wasn't immediately sold on keeping Carp after the season ended; however, as time has progressed I'm more convinced I should. I acquired Carp and Grady Sizemore in a trade for my first-round pick, Miguel Cabrera (plus flameouts Jonny Gomes and Javy Lopez). Despite a probable decline and barring any injury, he should be a top-ten pitcher and I'd say at worst a second-round pick in most drafts. And despite being by far the oldest player I'm considering keeping, his health is probably a safer bet than some of the younger pitchers on my roster.

Scott Kazmir (SP TB) - age 23 - 144.2/10/0/163/3.24/1.27
When K is for Kazmir was racking up the double-digit K games in June and July, I figured keeping him would be a given. He's still early 20's and has struck out more than a batter per inning in his major league career and has posted a career ERA of 3.73 despite a walk rate above 4 per 9 IP. However, a shoulder injury shut him down for the season in late August after showing few signs of trouble all year long. He was a 17th round pick for me in 2006, however with a breakout season that number should drastically change for the better. His health is a concern, and I haven't heard any news lately regarding his status for 2007, but if I remember correctly it seemed there was nothing prohibiting him from pitching this coming season. Unlike, of course...

Francisco Liriano (SP/RP Min) - age 23 - 121.0/12/1/144/2.16/1.00
Heartbreak. After my team was carried by F-Bomb through July and August, to hear he was going on the DL with elbow pain was disturbing. I was thrilled to hear about a week later, in mid-September, that he would be coming back on national TV against the A's. Sure enough, I planned my evening to watch, since I was in the league semifinals at the time. It was beautiful for two innings, and then... my fantasy season flashed before my eyes. Tommy John surgery was a (not-so-immediate) result, and Liriano will not pitch in 2007. Still, I'm considering keeping him and putting him on the DL the entire season in a gamble that he'll be Santanaesque in 2008. I could probably afford the DL slot. However, it's probable that I let him go and see if I can grab him before someone else does in the later rounds of the draft. Liriano was my 19th-round pick in 2006 as a bit of an unknown commodity; who knows where he'd go this year given the injury.

Chase Utley (2B Phi) - age 28 - .309/131/32/102/15
Chase is an offensive juggernaut at a position where those are scarce. His 2005 and 2006 numbers are remarkably similar, so it's hard to believe that he'll decline in 2008 while still in his late twenties. And hitting in front of Ryan Howard will do wonders for your runs scored. However, given the human wrecking ball that's playing about 150 feet away on the field, injury is always a risk for Utley. Still, it's hard to convince myself not to keep this guy. He was my third-round pick in 2006; he should go slightly higher this year as easily the best 2B in the league now that Jose Reyes has moved to SS.

Grady Sizemore (CF Cle) - age 25 - .290/134/28/76/22
Sizemore is a very, very good player. But I'm thinking that he's a much more valuable player to the Cleveland Indians than he is to my 5 & 5 fantasy team. Why? A jaw-dropping 53 doubles and 11 triples might as well be wimpy little singles. Still, I can't complain about how I acquired him (the aforementioned trade). He's probably going to end up a top-ten fantasy OF in 2007 when all's said and done (despite not being drafted as such most places) thanks to a runs scored total that likely won't decline much, if any in a stacked Indians lineup. A guy who does that and who should only get better in other statistics as he enters his prime puts up a very strong case. If I keep an outfielder, it almost has to be Grady.

Brett Myers (SP Phi) - age 27 - 198.0/12/0/189/3.91/1.30
Myers struggled at times this year both on and off the mound and was victimized by a killer hitter's park, but still managed a K rate of almost a batter an inning while remaining consistently healthy once again. Still an underrated player, he's in his prime at 27.

Matt Holliday (LF Col) - age 27 - .326/119/34/114/10
Yet another age-27 player next year, Holliday put up huge numbers in 2006 despite the anti-Coors Field humidor effect. I was lucky enough to snag him in the 9th round, which should be slightly below where he's drafted this year. However, my gut tells me that, despite it being his age-27 season, Holliday's 2007 won't be as good as his '06. Why? First off, his career in the minors wasn't particularly spectacular. Between 2000-2003, Holliday never slugged above .400. Alright, I could understand if a player suddenly "got it" in terms of power at some point in his career (see Finley, Steve). So, throw that out. Still, Holliday drew only 47 walks in 2006 - which, mind you, was his career high. I lean towards the sabermetric, even in fantasy baseball where it doesn't really matter, so I have a hard time going after guys who hit for high average and power despite poor walk rates. I'm not saying it can't be done (see Soriano, Alfonso), but I'm a bit skeptical of Holliday heading into 2007.

Vernon Wells (CF Tor) - age 28 - .303/91/32/106/17
Wells again is a good player, but I'm not convinced because of the walk rate. Wells was my 7th round pick in 2006, and I think he'd be about there or maybe slightly higher this year. Still, I think he's a bit overvalued and probably a long shot to be kept. On a different roster, though, he would have a shot.

Jered Weaver (SP LAA) - age 24 - 123.0/11/0/105/2.56/1.03
Cardinal hero Jeff's younger brother didn't put up the unreal K rate of a Liriano, Kazmir, or even Myers, but his 7.68 was pretty darn good, and he did strike out 93 in 77 IP in AAA in '06. He might be a bit of a long shot thanks to the little bit of uncertainty that he can match his stellar rookie year in 2007.

Miguel Tejada (SS Bal) - age 31 - .330/99/24/100/6
Tejada's only 31? Wow. I even consider myself somewhat of a fan of the O's, too, and I thought he was like 35. Still, it's hard to see Miggy do a whole lot better in 2007 than he did in 2006, if at all. His extra-base hit total in 2006 was his lowest since 1999. Given that he's played in the most consecutive games since Cal Ripken's streak, it's likely that he'll wear down in a Ripkenesque fashion over his 30s. (Ripken, while a stellar player throughout his 20s, only posted an OPS+ of 100 or greater three times after he turned 30. His selfish dedication to the streak clearly affected his performance in the second half of his career - acting as a detriment to his team - which is why, to me, he is one of the most overrated players in history. Down from soapbox.) Still, Tejada's a shortstop, and thanks to A-Rod's move to third base, Nomar's move to the DL, and a general lack of depth at the position, Miggy is still a top-five guy there. I got him in the second round in '06; he'll probably be a third- or fourth-rounder in '07. I'm on the fence on this one.

Erik Bedard (SP Bal) - age 28 - 196.1/15/0/171/3.76/1.35
The Canadian lefty had a bit of a breakout 2006, pitching very well at times for a pitching-starved Orioles club. Aside from an ugly May (during which I dropped him and picked him back up), he posted an ERA of 4.15 or better in every other calendar month, highlighted by a 4-0, 1.54, 35 K/9 BB July which came on the heels of a new change-up in his repertoire. This guy can dominate when he's on, but control problems when he starts to nibble can make things pretty ugly sometimes. I got him in the 25th (second-to-last) round in '06, and while he's probably going to go higher in most cases he's still flying under the radar. He's a guy who's highly underrated in my opinion and could be a steal in a later round of a draft - the type who can propel you to a huge season - but I doubt he'll make the cut here.

Javier Vazquez (SP CWS) - age 31 - 202.2/11/0/184/4.84/1.29
Ever since he left Montreal, Vazquez has posted mediocre ERAs despite solid peripherals. I managed to pounce on him on the waiver wire after his disgruntled owner dropped him in early August, and he performed pretty well down the stretch - he racked up 50 K in 35.1 IP in September (four double-digit strikeout games, in which he went 0-3 ironically) with solid ERA and WHIP in both his last two months. He should be the Sox' best starting pitcher in 2007, but unfortunately he's not one of the top 3 pitchers on this squad and will likely not be kept.

Other guys on my roster who I'd love to keep...
...because they should be well worth a roster spot next year:
Adrian Gonzalez (SD 1B) - age 25 - .304/83/24/82/0
(probably a solid backup 1B at worst)
Edwin Encarnacion (Cin 3B) - age 24 - .276/60/15/72/6
(in only 117 G, could be huge in '07)
Rich Hill (ChC SP) - age 27 - 99.1/6/0/90/4.17/1.23
(ridiculous K rates in minors, control and HR rate are biggest flaws)
Josh Willingham (Fla LF) - age 28 - .277/62/26/74/2
(was a steal as a C in '06, but won't retain eligibility - still a decent backup OF)
Bobby Jenks (CWS RP) - age 26 - 69.2/3/41/4.00/1.39
(lots of K and saves if you can stand the high ERA - which should improve)
Chris Ray (Bal RP) - age 25 - 66.0/4/33/2.73/1.09
(K rate decreased, and team won't generate SVOPPs, but very solid young RP)
John Maine (NYM SP) - age 26 - 90.0/6/0/71/3.60/1.13
(good minor league record, should break out in 2007)
JD Drew (Bos CF/RF) - age 31 - .283/84/20/100/2
(I keep holding onto hope that he'll have another year like 2004)

The rest of the roster:
Ryan Garko (Cle 1B) - age 26 - .292/28/7/45/0
Chris Duncan (StL RF/LF) - age 26 - .293/60/22/43/0
Brian Roberts (Bal 2B) - age 29 - .286/85/10/55/36
Boof Bonser (Min SP) - age 25 - 100.1/7/0/84/4.22/1.28
Orlando Hernandez (NYM SP) - age 41ish - 162.1/11/0/164/4.66/1.33
Greg Maddux (SD SP) - age 41 - 210.0/15/0/117/4.20/1.22

That's it. It was a fun ride in 2006 with that roster. Can you believe I actually had Roy Halladay as well, and replaced him with Bonser in the final weeks when it became clear that Halladay would miss his final start or two? And Mark Teahen during his second-half hot streak, dropping him in favor of Garko when he had to have surgery? ...but anyway, I'm leaning towards keeping Howard, Utley, Carpenter, and Kazmir. Unfortunately there are so... many... choices. Feel free to leave any input or analysis you may have in the comments - even questions regarding your team. I'm no professional, but I think I know my way around a fantasy baseball roster as well as the next guy. It's always good to get ideas from multiple sources, at the very least. So, have at it! Let the fantasy forum begin!

Value City

As a result of the rash of negative energy in the Cardinals blogosphere surrounding the signing of Ryan Franklin, I thought I'd add to lboros' comparison of Franklin against various other pitchers over the past few years. My point, however, is that no matter how mediocre Franklin has been, at $1 million he's an incredible value. Take these stats, for example, taken from Franklin's and an example pitcher's last three years as a full-time starter:

                    G/GS   IP   	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	ERA
Franklin '03-'05   96/94   603    	9.48	1.42	2.75	4.42	1.36	4.49
Pitcher B          98/97   602 2/3	9.59	1.34	3.20	4.99	1.42	4.60

Even if the ERA Franklin produces in a half-season (or whatever) of starting for the Cards is a full point higher than that 3-year total, he's still more than half a point better than that of what the Cards got out of their fifth starter a year ago. And in case you didn't guess, "Pitcher B" is just that fifth starter from a year ago, Jason Marquis, and the numbers are from his three years as a Cardinal ('04-'06). Marquis, who is entering his age-29 season, will be making $7 mil/year through 2009, courtesy of the Tribune Company. Franklin will be entering his age-35 season in 2007; despite the age difference, is it really worth $6 mil more in 2007 for half a K per 9 IP, since it's the only significant edge Marquis has? I say no way, and commend Walt for a good job finding a serviceable pitcher for way below the going rate.

Baseball 2006: The Year In Pictures

Yes, it's that time of year already: the end of 2006, and what a year it was. Heck, it couldn't have been any better. All the frustration and angst of an ugly, 83-win regular season for the Cardinals were wiped away with a dramatic run to the World Series championship. The words "improbable" and "unlikely", among others, have been thrown around plenty, so I won't use them to describe what happened. I'll just say it was simply an amazing thing to be a part of - even the small part of a fan. I admit with zero shame that I was screaming like a madman for a good five minutes straight after Yady hit the home run that beat the Mets. And being part of the celebration in St. Louis after Game 5 was truly special. At least three hours after the game ended (i.e., about 2:30 a.m.), I wandered down into the 8th and Pine MetroLink station to the sounds of people screaming and car horns honking. It was the first St. Louis championship of my lifetime that I was able to celebrate properly - in '82 I was a year and a half old, and in '00 for the Super Bowl I was away at college - and I'll treasure that memory, as well as the rest of the memories of this year, forever.

So, cheesy intro aside, I figure I'd at least divulge the purpose of this post. First, it's to try and make up for the lack of, well, anything that's going on on the site, and second, it's to provide the best ending for 2006 that I possibly can. I don't think much of myself as a writer; that's partially why I hardly ever post here. Actually, I don't think much of myself as a photographer, either, come to think of it. But taking a picture is a lot more repeatable with a lot less effort than posting a blog, so you can afford to screw up a lot more pictures than blog posts in an effort to get the perfect one. Thus, I've decided to post my year-in-review with a collection of pictures I've taken at ballgames. I live equidistant from Baltimore, Washington, and Philadelphia, so I saw the majority of my games in those three cities this year - but I also made trips to see the Cards play in San Diego, and at home at Busch during the regular season, in addition to a few other games on these trips. (Unfortunately, my camera was stolen after the Cards' opening week series in Philadelphia, so those pictures are in somebody else's scrapbook.) These pictures aren't professionally done, using expensive equipment or anything relating to the word "f-stop". They're taken with a cheap digital camera and are from a fan's perspective, which I'd say is appropriate for the purpose of this site. So, enjoy yourselves - the photos are, as Will on Deadspin likes to say, after the jump.

Warning: if you have a dial-up connection, you might want to go run around the block or something after you click the link.

Friday, May 26: Albert Pujols bats against Clay Hensley of the Padres at Petco Park. The Padres won the game 7-1.

Saturday, May 27: Jason Isringhausen pitches against Mike Piazza of the Padres at Petco Park. Several batters later, Yadier Molina picked off Brian Giles - a runner who didn't even matter since the bases were loaded in a 4-3 game - at first base to end one of the more exciting games of the year.

Saturday, May 27: New Cardinal Adam Kennedy, in his Angels days, bats against Adam Loewen of the Orioles at Angel Stadium. The Angels hammered the O's 10-1 on this particular evening. However, I was able to fulfill a crazy dream of mine by seeing two games in two different ballparks on the same day on May 27, and even better, those games involved my two favorite teams.

Sunday, May 28: A group of uniformed military personnel salute during the national anthem before the Cardinals-Padres game at Petco Park. The Padres won 10-8, signaling the beginning of the end for Mark Mulder.

Sunday, June 4: The sold-out crowd makes its way down Eutaw Street sometime during the Orioles-Yankees game at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Sunday, June 18: The Nationals take on the Yankees and their hordes of fans at sold-out (for about the only series all season) RFK Stadium. The Nationals won 3-2 on a Ryan Zimmerman 2-run walkoff home run off Chien-Ming Wang.

Saturday, June 24: Brett Myers of the Phillies pitches to Mark Loretta of the Red Sox at Fenway Park. This game, in addition to being a Fox broadcast, gained national attention since Myers had been arrested two nights earlier for striking his wife in the face outside their hotel in Boston. The crowd let Myers hear their displeasure throughout the game.

Saturday, June 24: Red Sox players mob David Ortiz outside the dugout after Ortiz hit a walkoff home run in the 10th inning. Between the walkoff home run and the Myers saga, my first trip to Fenway was a very exciting one.

Saturday, June 24: The Fenway Park press box, after the game. The Sox won 5-3.<