Some Old Friends

The turnover in baseball these days is at its highest rate it's ever been - taking the Cards as an example, we don't have but five guys who were on the roster before Yadier Molina was called up almost three years to the day ago, in June 2004: Edmonds, Pujols, Isringhausen, Rolen (Taguchi, Kennedy, and even Ankiel have been on the 25-man and either back down to the minors or traded and returned, so they don't count). So there's tons of guys out there who've donned the Birds on the Bat for a few seasons here or there recently, some of whom were quite popular during their times in St. Louis. Take the Washington Nationals, for instance: watching them play last Friday night, I came face-to-face with three guys who'd worn Cardinal uniforms since that fateful day three years ago, but had already moved on. Since they're coming to St. Louis this weekend, here's a preview of the familiar faces to be seen at Busch:

Ronnie Belliard will get his ring this weekend as the Nats come to St. Louis - he was lucky enough to wear the BoB at just the right time, from August to October 2006. He didn't really do much as a Cardinal outside of a great Division Series performance, but he's on the list nonetheless. We will never forget the 'Fro. Ronnie signed with the Nats for a remarkably cheap $750,000 in the offseason.

This season, Ronnie got off to a hot start - hitting .309/.343/.392 as recently as April 29 - but since then, he's managed just 6 singles and 4 walks in 45 PA, and been stuck in a quasi-platoon with Felipe Lopez and the triple machine that is Cristian Guzman. Against the Orioles at RFK on Friday, he came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning with the tying run on first base (then second, after a stolen base), and struck out.

Ray King was a Cardinal in 2004 and 2005, pitching two of the better seasons of his career in St. Louis. As a situational lefty, he held opposing left-handed hitters to a .150/.236/.168 line in 2004. He regressed a bit the next year, however, and while he didn't post that terrible of an ERA in his second season, his peripherals were much worse, dropping to a lefty/righty OPS split of .673/.981 in '05 after a .404/.688 in '04. That 2005 season ended poorly, as Ray was not used in the postseason and bad-mouthed Cardinal management thereafter. He was soon traded to the Rockies for Aaron Miles and Larry Bigbie.

Ray had a mediocre season as a Rockie in 2006; his strikeout rate dropped for the fifth consecutive season, and he posted a 4.43 ERA. As a National this season, Ray has struggled, posting a 6.55 ERA coming into the weekend series in St. Louis with a 5/5 K/BB ratio and 4 HR allowed in 11 innings. On Friday, he came in to start the top of the 7th inning to face the top of the O's lineup; he gave up a double to Brian Roberts before retiring Nick Markakis on a groundout. He was relieved by Winston Abreu and Roberts was stranded at second base.

And then there's Get Up Baby favorite Jason Simontacchi. Simo came up with the Cards in May 2002 when the starting rotation was decimated by injuries. He stuck by going 7-1 in his first 10 starts with the big club, posting a 2.77 ERA despite only a 26/17 K/BB in 61 2/3 IP in those starts. His ERA caught up to his peripherals in later starts, however, and he ended up at 4.02 for the season. Simo struggled out of the gate in 2003, but still made 16 starts before being demoted to the bullpen in early July. There, he proved a reliable long man, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 29/12 K/BB in 45 IP, which included one spot start late in the year. Despite his preference to start, he was slotted for that role in 2004 coming out of spring training, but gave up runs in his first four appearances and was demoted to Memphis. He was sent down and called up several times throughout the '04 season, and in those major-league appearances he only gave up 3 ER in 10 IP, but couldn't consistely crack what was a strong 'pen on that 105-win team.

After leaving the Cards after the 2004 season, Simo disappeared. Seriously. Perhaps Dan at GUB might've tracked him better and would know, but I can't find any record of him playing baseball in 2005. In '06, Simo emerged from his hiding and surfaced with the Bridgeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League. He pitched on a staff which included several former Cardinals: T.J. Mathews, Jimmy Journell, Luther Hackman, Donovan Osborne (ugh), and Pedro Borbon Jr. (yikes!). In 2007, Simo showed up in spring training with the Nats - a wise choice given the fact that only one slot in their starting rotation was set (John Patterson), and even he was injury-prone - and made two uninspiring starts in Columbus before being called up to make his first major league appearance since October 2, 2004 on May 8. Simo has actually pitched well in a Nats uniform, getting his second win in his fourth start in Cincinnati on Wednesday, and posting a 4.37 ERA with a 16/7 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP. On Friday against the O's, he gave the Nats a quality start, giving up 3 ER in 6 IP with 6 K/1 BB. Given the state of the Nats' rotation, he should stick if he continues to put up numbers that are anywhere decent.

Finally, I have to mention the former Cardinal broadcaster Bob Carpenter, who is in his second season as the Nats' play-by-play guy for the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network after spending over ten years with the Cards. Bob's been doing an excellent job, as always, with the Nats, and I'm sure those in St. Louis who remember him as fondly as yours truly does will be glad to see him back in town - just like the rest of these guys.

Catching Up

So much has happened since I last posted... I'm going to have to do bullets.

• Josh Hancock. Wow. There isn't anything I can say about the guy that hasn't been said already, but I'll probably do it anyway. The story broke while I was on the road last Sunday; I'd planned on watching the Sunday night game from my hotel room, only to arrive and hear the news of Hancock's death. After hearing the details and seeing the footage on Sportscenter that night, the first thought that I had was: "he must've been drunk." After all, how else do you fail to avoid a tow truck with its lights flashing on a clear night? Sadly, that presumption turned out to be the truth, as Hancock's blood-alcohol level was nearly twice the legal limit at 0.157 - and accident reconstruction crews have determined that he was talking on his cell phone at the time of the accident, in addition to having a small amount of marijuana in the car.

In the aftermath, the Cards have banned alcohol from the clubhouse. Frankly, what good does that do? After all, Hancock had been drinking at Shannon's, and possibly elsewhere. If these guys that want to drink can't do it in the clubhouse, they'll find someplace they can. After all, quite a few of professional baseball players are young, single and make a lot of money. Guys like that don't sit at home and do jigsaw puzzles - they go out and have a good time. The more appropriate course of action for the club to take, if they so chose, would be to provide transportation for these guys if they choose to go out drinking after games. While that may be a complicated proposition financially and/or logistically, clubs might be forced to make this sort of business decision in order to avoid tragedies such as the one involving Hancock.

• Chris Carpenter is out for "at least three months" with arthroscopic elbow surgery. We're waiting for Will Carroll's further input, but it's basically been determined that Carp's been pitching with bone spurs in his elbow for the better part of his tenure in the Cardinal organization. According to Carroll, the contract extension that Carp signed in the offseason was offered to him with that knowledge. So, perhaps the organization is taking its medicine with Carp for this season in the hopes that he can recover to at least his 2004 level in 2008-2011. As for this season, it's been rumored that Brad Thompson will take Carp's slot in the rotation for the moment. One slightly crazy option further down the road is a déja vu reunion with Jeff Weaver, who is quite possibly on the verge of being released mid-season once again by Seattle. With Mark Mulder due back by the All-Star break or so, however, this rotation slot is likely only a two-month job.

• David Eckstein, for the first time in his Cardinal career, has been removed from the leadoff spot. I guess it's a reasonable move, as Eckstein had a .280 OBP with no power and only 6 walks in 109 PA. The problem is twofold, however: 1) if Eck's not getting on base around a .350 clip, as he did in 2006, he's rather useless anywhere you put him in the lineup, and 2) who else is going to bat leadoff? Here's a list of those who've batted in the #1 slot since Eck's demotion (Eck included), with BA and OBP listed:

Preston Wilson, .219/.265
Aaron Miles, .235/.259
Skip Schumaker, .238/.267
David Eckstein, .216/.280
So Taguchi, .263/.333
Scott Spiezio, .226/.339

This isn't a good group (understatement of the month), but if it's not gonna be Eck, why not keep trying Spiezio up there? Even while not hitting for average, he's at least displayed the ability to take a walk - and with Chris Duncan and Albert Pujols the only two players on the roster even remotely hitting well, the Cards need all the baserunners they can get in front of those two guys. And with Wilson on the disabled list, Spiezio presumably will be getting more starts in right field.

• The Milwaukee Brewers seem poised to run away and hide in the NL Central. Going into Sunday's games, the Crew was ten games over .500, with a five game lead in the division - and an eight-game lead over the last-place Cardinals. With the rest of the teams in the Central showing their obvious flaws, the Brewers taking such a lead with what appears to be, on paper, the most complete team in the division could mean a very long summer for the Cards and their second-division counterparts.

Albert!

Mr. Pujols has come out of his slump, at least temporarily, hitting two home runs (one in the first inning off of Ben Sheets) in today's afternoon tilt against the Brewers. Albert raised his OPS - granted, it's early in the season - from .545 to .713 in one day's work. Still, he looked uncomfortable at the plate in the other two plate appearances I saw him take, once popping up weakly to first base and the second being badly fooled by Sheets pitches while striking out.

So which plate appearances do we base judgement on? Well, it's been said he's not taking enough walks, but that appears to be a slight misinformation as his P/PA on the season is as high as it's ever been in his career. Yes, his walk rate is a bit down, but it's a really small sample. I don't want to jinx anything by saying this, but Albert should be fine. In fact, we're probably more likely to see more days like this one where he'll hit a few home runs - after all, he is an awfully talented hitter - while still not entirely seeing the ball well. And when he gets in the groove, look out.

2007 Projections: Building Wainwright

Adam Wainwright will long be remembered as the man who threw the final pitch of the 2006 World Series, striking out Brandon Inge for the win in Game 5, a victory for the ages, yadda yadda yadda. That's all well and good, but what's next? Starting games, you say? Does the Cardinal brass really think the kid who turned in arguably the most dominant month of relief pitching in Cardinal history can suddenly become a solid young starter? Well, yeah, they do. More importantly though, are they out of their minds for changing his role after he had such success as a late-inning reliever?

Well, if the former is true, PECOTA agrees with them. And despite the fact that there's not very many similar players who made the jump from a full year of relief to a full year of starting at age 25, there is still some evidence to support this hypothesis. As for whether the latter is true, well... let's take a look. Answers to both questions are provided below.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched". This time, however, it was more than just age-related. Since the majority of Wainwright's comparable pitchers were relievers, it made more sense to choose the ones in his top 20 comparables who made the most starts in their age-25 seasons to get the "top ten"; unfortunately, there weren't enough that started in their age-25 season to fill out the ten. So, the bottom four guys on the list I used were those who made the most starts of the 11-20 range on Wainwright's comps. There are some relievers on the list, yeah, so it's skewed. But I wanted to get a bigger sample than just the four guys who were at least part-time starters; I seperated those guys out later anyway.

Adam Wainwright
age 24 (2006): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 6 HR, 22 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Ryan Madson (1st overall)
age 24 (2005): 78 G (0 GS), 87 IP, 4.14 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 11 HR, 25 BB, 79 K
age 25 (2006): 50 G (17 GS), 134 1/3 IP, 5.69 ERA (81 ERA+), 1.68 WHIP, 20 HR, 50 BB, 99 K
2. Randy Moffitt (2nd overall)
age 24 (1973): 60 G (0 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 31 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1974): 61 G (1 GS), 102 IP, 4.50 ERA (85 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 9 HR, 29 BB, 49 K
3. Adrian Devine (3rd overall)
age 24 (1976): 48 G (1 GS), 73 IP, 3.21 ERA (118 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR, 26 BB, 48 K
age 25 (1977): 56 G (2 GS), 105 2/3 IP, 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 8 HR, 31 BB, 67 K
4. Mike Garman (4th overall)
age 24 (1974): 64 G (0 GS), 81 2/3 IP, 2.64 ERA (136 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, 4 HR, 27 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1975): 66 G (0 GS), 79 IP, 2.39 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.53 WHIP, 3 HR, 48 BB, 48 K
5. Ron Davis (5th overall)
age 24 (1980): 53 G (0 GS), 131 IP, 2.95 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 32 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1981): 43 G (0 GS), 73 IP, 2.71 ERA (132 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 83 K
6. Rawly Eastwick (7th overall)
age 24 (1975): 58 G (0 GS), 90 IP, 2.60 ERA (138 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 61 K
age 25 (1976): 71 G (0 GS), 107 2/3 IP, 2.09 ERA (168 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 3 HR, 27 BB, 70 K
7. Mike Harkey (9th overall)
age 24 (1991): 4 G (4 GS), 18 2/3 IP, 5.30 ERA (73 ERA+), 1.45 WHIP, 3 HR, 6 BB, 15 K
age 25 (1992): 7 G (7 GS), 38 IP, 1.89 ERA (191 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 4 HR, 15 BB, 21 K
8. Curt Schilling (11th overall)
age 24 (1991): 56 G (0 GS), 75 2/3 IP, 3.81 ERA (92 ERA+), 1.56 WHIP, 2 HR, 39 BB, 71 K
age 25 (1992): 42 G (26 GS), 226 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA (150 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 11 HR, 59 BB, 147 K
9. Gary Glover (17th overall)
age 24 (2001): 46 G (11 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 4.93 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 16 HR, 32 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2002): 41 G (22 GS), 138 1/3 IP, 5.20 ERA (88 ERA+), 1.36 WHIP, 21 HR, 52 BB, 70 K
10. Pete Redfern (20th overall)
age 24 (1979): 40 G (6 GS), 108 1/3 IP, 3.49 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 8 HR, 35 BB, 85 K
age 25 (1980): 23 G (16 GS), 104 2/3 IP, 4.56 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 11 HR, 33 BB, 73 K

In case you're curious, those omitted were:
6th overall: Doug Bird, 1975-76 (age 25-26, reliever)
8th overall: Turk Farrell, 1959-60 (age 25-26, reliever)
10th overall: Bill Simas, 1996-97 (reliever)
12th overall: Rusty Meacham, 1992-93 (reliever)
13th overall: Rollie Fingers, 1971-72 (reliever)
14th overall: Joey McLaughlin, 1981-82 (reliever)
15th overall: Matt Anderson, 2001-02 (reliever)
16th overall: Cecilio Guante, 1984-85 (reliever)
18th overall: Steve Foucault, 1974-75 (reliever)
19th overall: Robb Nen, 1994-95 (reliever)

Averages:
age 24: 51 G (2 GS), 86 2/3 IP, 3.39 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 6.20 K/9, 0.74 HR/9, 2.89 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB
age 25: 46 G (9 GS), 111 IP, 3.62 ERA (122 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 5.90 K/9, 0.78 HR/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB
Wainwright in 2006 (rate stats included): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 2.64 BB/9, 3.27 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Wainwright in 2007: 25 G (25 GS), 151 2/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.18 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 2.85 BB/9, 2.52 K/BB

Of note:
• The thing that sticks out the most from this comparison is that on average, these guys got worse in every peripheral statistic from age 24 to age 25. Perhaps it's a condition of the sample I used; a good percentage of these guys made quite a few more starts at age 25, but still it's a bit of a shock that EVERY peripheral was worse. PECOTA forecasts the same for Wainwright as probably a casualty of the conversion to starting. Still, the forecast doesn't seem to greatly affect his ERA, as the weighted mean calls for a likely above-league-average 3.88, which would be very nice.

• Only four of the top 20 comparables made more than 7 starts in their age-25 season, which is what we all hope Wainwright will do. These four were Madson, Schilling, Glover, and Redfern. Those guys declined a lot less overall in HR/9 (0.90 to 0.94) and even improved their BB/9 (3.18 to 2.89), but their K/9 went down significantly (7.22 to 5.80) - probably from the transition to starting, as already stated. It's nice to see that the most similar guys in terms of role at age 25 handled themselves well - their ERA+ increased from 106 to 111.

• It's sort of interesting to see guys like Fingers and Nen, both of whom were regarded as a top-tier closer in their respective eras, on this list, although it maybe makes you wonder "what if".

• Curt Schilling's 1992 season was a big time breakout, easily the best campaign on the list. After arriving from the Astros in exchange for (yikes!) Jason Grimsley right before Opening Day, Schilling opened the season in the bullpen. After a sterling first month which earned him two saves and a 2.86 ERA (29 K/11 BB in 28 1/3 IP), he was moved into the Phillies' rotation to stay, and did not disappoint. Schilling pitched a whopping 198 innings of 2.27 ERA in only 26 starts (118 K/48 BB), holding hitters to a measely .539 OPS as a starter. He also completed 10 games and threw 4 shutouts. The best part? He only gave up 11 home runs in 226 1/3 innings. Wow. Wainwright almost surely won't become that kind of a stud right away (at least, not one with that kind of workload), but it's nice to see a season like that on this list nonetheless.

• Ryan Madson. Yeesh. Madson started his roller-coaster 2006 season in the Phillies' rotation, lost his job when the Phils called up phenom Cole Hamels in May, blew the win for Hamels in his major league debut, rejoined the rotation when the Phillies lost Jon Lieber to a groin injury two weeks later (and stuck for longer than anticipated thanks to Brett Myers', uh, issues in June), tied the major-league regular season record with four wild pitches in an inning in a start on July 25, then went back to the bullpen after Randy Wolf was deemed recovered from Tommy John surgery about a week later. When all was said and done, his 5.69 ERA was thanks to a fairly drastic starter/reliever split (6.28 in 90 1/3 IP as a starter, 4.50 in 44 IP as a reliever). And he just got his second loss in two games to start 2007. Yikes. We can only hope it doesn't turn out so bad.

Conclusion:
PECOTA is more optimistic about Wainwright than I am. It's gotta be hard as hell to transition from relief to starting - especially for a guy like Adam, who essentially has two pitches, fastball and curve. If Dave Duncan can teach him an effective third pitch, it's possible he could fool hitters enough to keep his HR rate down and his K rate up; however, with just two pitches in his arsenal, major league hitters ought to be good enough to figure him out eventually. That kind of stuff tends to fare better in relief. I have enough confidence in Dunc and Wainwright's makeup as a pitcher to create an effective starter; I'm just not convinced that it will happen in 2007. If Adam hits his PECOTA, I'll be pretty happy. And heck, if this starter thing doesn't work out, he could always go back to closing out playoff series, right?

Program Note: I'm leaving tomorrow afternoon for Houston. I'll be back Monday and hopefully soon thereafter, I'll have my review of Minute Maid Park. 0-3, outscored 20-2. Carp's elbow problems. Geesh. At least we've hit rock bottom early, there's nowhere to go but up!

2007 Projections: Reyes of Sunshine

Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to state that I have never seen Anthony Reyes smile. Not once. Even on his Topps baseball card from last season - a non-action shot, mind you - he looks as stoic as a mannequin. It's almost creepy. He's a great young pitcher and I have no reason to believe he isn't an upstanding guy, but please, Anthony - look like you're having a little bit of fun out there.

That aside, what we saw from him in Game 1 of the World Series in Detroit was beautiful. Just absolutely perfect. It makes me wonder how he only put up a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts in 2006, especially after such a sparkling minor league career. Well, the answer is twofold: walks and home runs. Anthony got tagged for the highest walk and home run rates of his professional career in his major-league portion of 2006. These struggles have been explained by a few different theories: 1) fatigue coming into the second half of a season in which he set a career high in innings, 2) he still continues to struggle with the two-seam fastball the organization continues to insist he throw, and 3) his mechanics are out of whack. Whatever the reason, will the trend continue into 2007? Let's take a look, in the same manner we took a look at Chris Duncan's 2007 projection, after the jump.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched".

Anthony Reyes
age 24 (2006): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 17 HR, 34 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Bob Sebra (1st overall)
age 24 (1986): 17 G (13 GS), 91 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66 K
age 25 (1987): 36 G (27 GS), 177 1/3 IP, 4.42 ERA (95 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 15 HR, 67 BB, 156 K
2. James Baldwin (2nd overall)
age 24 (1996): 28 G (28 GS), 169 IP, 4.42 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 24 HR, 57 BB, 127 K
age 25 (1997): 32 G (32 GS), 200 IP, 5.27 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.44 WHIP, 19 HR, 83 BB, 140 K
3. Tommy Greene (3rd overall)
age 24 (1991): 36 G (27 GS), 207 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 19 HR, 66 BB, 154 K
age 25 (1992): 13 G (12 GS), 64 1/3 IP, 5.32 ERA (66 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 5 HR, 34 BB, 39 K
4. Paul Moskau (5th overall)
age 24 (1978): 26 G (25 GS), 145 IP, 3.97 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP, 17 HR, 57 BB, 88 K
age 25 (1979): 21 G (15 GS), 106 1/3 IP, 3.89 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.49 WHIP, 9 HR, 51 BB, 58 K
5. Brett Tomko (6th overall)
age 24 (1997): 22 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 3.43 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.21 WHIP, 14 HR, 47 BB, 95 K
age 25 (1998): 34 G (34 GS), 210 2/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 22 HR, 64 BB, 162 K
6. Paul Rigdon (7th overall)
age 24 (2000): 17 G (16 GS), 87 1/3 IP, 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 18 HR, 35 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2001): 15 G (15 GS), 79 1/3 IP, 5.79 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.66 WHIP, 13 HR, 46 BB, 49 K
7. Albie Lopez (8th overall)
age 24 (1996): 13 G (10 GS), 62 IP, 6.39 ERA (77 ERA+), 1.65 WHIP, 14 HR, 22 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1997): 37 G (6 GS), 76 2/3 IP, 6.93 ERA (68 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, 11 HR, 40 BB, 63 K
8. Doug Drabek (9th overall)
age 24 (1987): 29 G (28 GS), 176 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 22 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
age 25 (1988): 33 G (32 GS), 219 1/3 IP, 3.08 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 21 HR, 50 BB, 127 K
9. Gil Meche (11th overall)
age 24 (2003): 32 G (32 GS), 186 1/3 IP, 4.59 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 30 HR, 63 BB, 130 K
age 25 (2004): 23 G (23 GS), 217 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA (86 ERA+), 1.46 WHIP, 21 HR, 47 BB, 99 K
10. Eric Rasmussen (13th overall)
age 24 (1976): 43 G (17 GS), 150 1/3 IP, 3.53 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, 10 HR, 54 BB, 76 K
age 25 (1977): 34 G (34 GS), 233 IP, 3.48 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 24 HR, 63 BB, 120 K

In case you're curious, the omitted two were:
4th overall: Ron Schueler, 1973-74 (age 25-26)
10th overall: Ray Washburn, 1963-64 (age 25-26)
12th overall: Don Cardwell, 1960-61 (made 38 starts in '61, too many for accurate comparison)

Averages:
age 24: 26 G (22 GS), 140 IP, 4.07 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 1.14 HR/9, 3.03 BB/9, 2.04 K/BB
age 25: 28 G (23 GS), 149 1/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB
Reyes in 2006 (rate stats included): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 7.59 K/9, 1.79 HR/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Reyes in 2007: 29 G (29 GS), 168 1/3 IP, 3.81 ERA. 7.54 K/9, 1.18 HR/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB

Notes:
• The thing that stuck out the most was that the majority of these guys put up worse seasons at age 25 than at age 24. Most increased their workload (at the major league level, at least), but only three of the ten had a better ERA+ at age 25 than at age 24. And those three (Moskau, Drabek, and Rasmussen) all had only modest increases. In terms of won-lost record, this sample fared much worse in their age-25 seasons as well. I didn't include those numbers in the lists above (since these things aren't entirely performance-related), but overall this group posted a record of 88-75 at age 24, while dropping to 78-92 at age 25.

• Not only is this a list of guys who struggled at age 25, there are some ugly names among the more recent guys. Brett Tomko? Albie Lopez? Paul Rigdon? James Baldwin? Gil Meche? Yes, Meche got a huge contract this offseason, but ugh. Lopez was terrible, Rigdon disappeared (more later), Tomko never got any better and became a reliever, like Baldwin, and Meche hasn't had a league-average season since. It's not an inspiring group.

• Nobody on the list really seemed to have a season similar to Reyes' at age 24. Perhaps Rigdon, but his major and minor league K rates were far worse than Reyes', and I don't . None of these guys, actually, put up the K's in the minors or majors quite like Anthony. Makes you wonder why they're comparables. But none of the ones mentioned above who put up a better ERA+ in their age-25 season appear to compare to Reyes. A stud performance like Drabek's would be a nice bar to set, as Anthony has proven to have even better command, but he has to prove he will be more consistent with said command, in addition to his health, at the major league level.

• As stated before, Rigdon is a bit of a mystery. He didn't play in the majors past 2001, and the last news I saw of him in any team's system was his being assigned to the Red Sox's minor league camp in March 2004. He evidently had some, uh, involuntary plastic surgery done back in '01, but that didn't seem like it would've been career-ending. It's spooky seeing a guy end his professional baseball career before the age of 30, especially since he was pretty decent in small doses after he got sent down to the minors. I wonder what happened to him.

• PECOTA has a lot more faith in Anthony than his comparable players have justified. The projection looks for Anthony to keep his K rate slightly below his career level in the major leagues, but more importantly it believes that his career high walk and home run rates from 2006 are fluky based on solid rates from his minor-league days. And that translates to a solid ERA of 3.81. I think we'll all take that, as many are not so bullish on Reyes, but it's nice to know that the computer models are on our side. And unlike Chris Duncan, playing time shouldn't be a huge issue - if he is healthy and remotely effective, he could get to 200 innings if La Russa decides he doesn't have faith in what appears to be a shaky bullpen.

To conclude, I'm less optimistic about Reyes than PECOTA is. And it doesn't have anything to do with the comparables. Anthony pitched 181 1/3 IP total in 2006, far above his previous career high of 140. As linked before, there are concerns about the velocity on his fastball decreasing over the past year, and I am in the camp that if there was a decrease, it was probably fatigue-related. My bold prediction is this: if Anthony can physically handle the workload that will likely be demanded of him in 2007, I see no reason he won't improve on his ERA from 2006. But if he can't, and he is continually thrown to the wolves despite only throwing 88-90 mp on his 4-seam fastball... it could be ugly. So let's hope Anthony throws free and easy this season... and maybe, just maybe, cracks a smile.

2007 Projections: St. Louis Runs On Duncan

Photo courtesy Rick Bowmer, AP

Way back in the early days of The Birdwatch, I took on the challenge of projecting the performance of the Cards' 2005 starting outfield based on their ten most similar players from baseball-reference.com. Those three outfielders were united by the fact that they were all rather old, and faced inevitable statistical declines. This time around, however, I'm going to take a look at three key players to the success of the 2007 Cardinals: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, and Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, these guys are too new to the majors to have similar players on B-R, so I've resorted to the glory that is PECOTA for their comparables. Yes, PECOTA has their own nifty projections, and I'll take a look at those after I'm done to determine their level of optimism.

So without further ado, let's start this bad boy off by taking a look at Chris Duncan (pictured above), the Cards' probable starting left fielder - after the jump, of course.

A bit about the method to my madness:

PECOTA does things a little differently than Bill James (whose formula B-R.com uses to compute similarity scores). For one, there's nothing in the database that computes similarity scores based on age - it's based on season-by-season progression. So, for example, Duncan's career going into 2007 is deemed to be most similar to Mike Epstein's career going into 1969. Since both Epstein and Duncan were both coming off their age-25 seasons, I consider it a viable comparison. However, Duncan's third-most similar career was Jason Thompson's going into 1980. However, Thompson was coming off his age-24 season going into 1980. Because of the age difference, I don't see Thompson to be as comparable a player as say, Michael Tucker going into 1997. Tucker was Duncan's 12th-most comparable player, but he was also coming off his age-25 season. My point with all of this? Instead of using PECOTA's 10 most comparables overall, I used the 10 highest comparables at the same age as Duncan (and on later projections, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright). It's a touchy distinction to make, but I feel as though it's relevant for this particular study. Also of note: when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I just weighted it based on plate appearances - but I didn't really want to go back and look up league averages for 30 different years and weight them all just to have the final product turn out pretty much the same, if not exactly the same. Forgive me, I'm lazy. Anyway, here's the group I ended up with:

Chris Duncan
age 25 (1968): 90 G, 314 PA, .293/.363/.589, 141 OPS+
age 26 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-26 Season
1. Mike Epstein (1st overall)
age 25 (1968): 123 G, 448 PA, .234/.338/.366, 117 OPS+
age 26 (1969): 131 G, 500 PA, .278/.414/.551, 175 OPS+
2. Carlos Pena (2nd overall)
age 25 (2003): 131 G, 516 PA, .248/.332/.440, 107 OPS+
age 26 (2004): 142 G, 561 PA, .241/.338/.472, 112 OPS+
3. Eric Anthony (6th overall)
age 25 (1993): 145 G, 539 PA, .249/.319/.397, 94 OPS+
age 26 (1994): 79 G, 288 PA, .237/.297/.412, 80 OPS+
4. Ben Grieve (7th overall)
age 25 (2001): 154 G, 639 PA, .264/.372/.387, 102 OPS+
age 26 (2002): 136 G, 561 PA, .251/.353/.432, 108 OPS+
5. Ryan Klesko (8th overall)
age 25 (1996): 153 G, 602 PA, .282/.364/.530, 127 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 143 G, 522 PA, .261/.334/.490, 111 OPS+
6. Ron Swoboda (9th overall)
age 25 (1969): 109 G, 375 PA, .235/.326/.361, 91 OPS+
age 26 (1970): 115 G, 289 PA, .233/.340/.392, 96 OPS+
7. Lee Thomas (10th overall)
age 25 (1961): 132 G, 345 PA, .285/.353/.491, 114 OPS+
age 26 (1962): 160 G, 439 PA, .290/.355/.467, 123 OPS+
8. Ryan Langerhans (11th overall)
age 25 (2005): 128 G, 373 PA, .267/.348/.426, 99 OPS+
age 26 (2006): 131 G, 369 PA, .241/.350/.378, 90 OPS+
9. Michael Tucker (12th overall)
age 25 (1996): 108 G, 393 PA, .260/.346/.442, 101 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 138 G, 554 PA, .283/.347/.445, 105 OPS+
10. Paul O'Neill (13th overall)
age 25 (1988): 145 G, 533 PA, .252/.306/.414, 102 OPS+
age 26 (1989): 117 G, 480 PA, .276/.346/.446, 123 OPS+

In case you're curious, the 3rd through 5th overall were:
Jason Thompson, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Willie Aikens, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Mel Hall, 1985-86 (age 24-25)

Averages:
age 25: 133 G, 432 PA, .259/.341/.429, 106 OPS+ (16 HR, 60 RBI)
age 26: 129 G, 417 PA, .263/.350/.455, 115 OPS+ (18 HR, 65 RBI)
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Duncan: 452 PA, .273/.356/.488 (20 HR, 65 RBI)

The concensus is, as it should be, a slight improvement from age-25 to age-26. This sample, in fact, made less plate appearances on average in their age-26 seasons, due to factors ranging from injuries to strike years, but produced more raw HR/RBI numbers - most likely thanks to a better lineup spot and increased production.

Of note:
• The biggest gainer on the list was clearly Epstein, posting an oh-so-pretty .278/.414/.551 line for the 2nd-generation Washington Senators in '69, which translates to a 175 OPS+ thanks to a pitcher-friendly era and park effect. I drool a little when I look at his 85/99 BB/K ratio from that season, but playing under Ted Williams and with the likes of Frank "Hondo" Howard might've helped his approach a little bit. Also, he probably benefitted greatly from the increased hitting environment following the Year of the Pitcher in '68; the league average OPS in his parks went up 50 points in '69 from the previous year. If Duncan can put up a .414 OBP batting in the 2-hole ahead of a healthy Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds, the Cards would score a ton of runs despite the Juan Encarnacion-sized hole in the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, I think a year like that is hopelessly optimistic to expect out of him.

• The player who had the most similar season to Duncan's 2006 in his age-25 campaign was probably Klesko - and his percentages dropped across the board the next year. Still, at .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in '97, his 111 OPS+ age-26 season was better than a lot of guys on this list. I wouldn't be too upset if Duncan duplicated those numbers in '07.

• PECOTA is higher on Duncan than the comparable player averages are. In fact, in terms of raw offense, PECOTA even considers him to be the Cardinals' best outfielder in 2007, narrowly outVORPing Jim Edmonds 22.5 to 22.3.

• Playing time is a big factor in projecting what Duncan will do in 2007. Based on his past struggles against left-handed pitching (.204/.250/.429 career) and his liabilities on defense, it's hard to see La Russa playing him against any lefties at all, or late in games during which the Cardinals have a lead. Thus, 500 PA is a bit of a stretch. Even PECOTA's 452 PA projection might not be attained if Chris struggles in April and May - we all know Tony can have a short leash with young hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals also have a glut of outfielders, with Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, John Rodriguez, and even Scott Spiezio all on the 40-man roster. Barring a trade or long-term injury, all of those guys will have a role and get their plate appearances - which lessens the opportunities for Duncan.

• I was moderately surprised not to see St. Louis native Ryan Howard on this list; he wasn't even in Duncan's top twenty comparables. The major league numbers of the two players are virtually identical through their age-25 campaigns, but upon further review, it appears Howard had much gaudier numbers in AA and AAA, which PECOTA takes into account. The other clear difference: the Phillies traded Jim Thome to make way for Howard to be the full-time starter at first base going into the 2006 season, allowing him to get 700 PA without any major threats from the bench. As mentioned above, Duncan could repeat his 2006 rates and still only get 500 PA thanks to La Russa's obsession with playing the matchups.

In conclusion, I think Chris Duncan is an interesting case. (Of course I can use that cliché, dammit, why else would I write about him?) My personal opinion is that the PECOTA projection will probably be closer - he's a big kid, and I don't see him losing the pop in his bat overnight. True, a few of those home runs might clank off the wall as doubles, but I don't see him slugging below .500 if he keeps the batting average up. I trust he'll see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of the big boppers (yet another cliché, but it's true), so assuming he remains as selective as he was last year at times, he could probably manage a decent OBP. But I have a feeling that last year's numbers are quite possibly a best-case scenario. Worst case? He bats .200 through April and May and continues to struggle in left field, and sees his playing time decrease to the point that he's just a left-handed power bat off the bench. Still, if I were a betting man (NCAA Tournament pools aside), I'd take the over when it comes to his PECOTA projection. Let the kid play, let's see what he can do.

As the Ronnie Belliard Turns

So, I'm sure everyone's heard by now about our good friend Ronnie Belliard's legal difficulties. Belliard had a sordid affair with a young lady, who supposedly ended up pregnant. The rest is pure soap opera genius:

Laura Edwards and the athlete had an "encounter" on Sept. 29 and she left messages for him in late October or early November. He had a friend call back. That friend's message was returned by George Edwards, who met with the friend and said his daughter was pregnant and wanted money.

The friend offered several thousand dollars. Later in November, a sports agent worked out a deal to pay $25,000 for a paternity test, and $125,000 more if the child was the athlete's.

Oh, the life of a professional athlete. Knock 'em up and pay 'em off. Things went awry with that little plan, however, as the father of the young lady decided that Ronnie's $150k payoff wasn't enough. So he got served with an extortion charge, and the whole thing gets thrown out into the public arena. Yippee!

Belliard, incidentally, went 0-for-4 with a K on September 30. Must've been a hell of an "encounter".

Some More Of This Fantasy Stuff: Cards Fantasy Preview

Once again, I return to the fantasy baseball realm. This time, however, it's to sift through our beloved Redbirds to see which are worth your fantasy buck and, well... which aren't. It's tough to correctly evaluate your favorite teams' players from a fantasy perspective (I think that's how I ended up with 7 Orioles on my "A-team" roster last year), but I'll do my best. Again, the previous disclaimer says I'm no expert, but hey, you get what you pay for.

I'll break down the 25-man roster (and more), position-by-position, below.

Players on the Cards' presumed 25-man roster are listed here. Their age and 2006 stats in a 5 & 5 league follow, along with select others that I like to use to further evaluate my team.

CATCHERS:
Yadier Molina, age 24, 461 PA, .216/29/6/49/1, 54 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career
Gary Bennett, age 35, 170 PA, .223/13/4/22/0, 56 OPS+ in 2006, 64 OPS+ career

Oh, Yady. His awesome postseason (.358/.424/.547) screams small sample size, but it also provides a glimpse of what Yady might actually be able to do at the plate if he didn't give away at-bats at times to focus on being a great Defensive Catcher in the La Russa mold. His OPS+ has actually decreased every year since he entered the league, and he's still only 24 in 2007 - so I see no reason why he shouldn't improve on his 2006 season. How much unfortunately depends on Yady himself, whether he stays healthy, and whether he gets off to a better start. His career OPS in March and April is .388; his worst other calendar month is .626, which is only 7 hundredths below his career average. If he can get off to a postseason-like start, it might actually motivate Yady to focus on his offense as well as his defense. He's been durable, and was sixth among catchers in the NL in plate appearances in 2006 despite missing a few games in the middle of the year. (Unfortunately, most AL catchers average more thanks to the DH; I usually stay away from NL catchers peronally.) So... if everything goes right, I wouldn't be shocked to see a .290/40/12/60/0 season out of him, which would be worth a pick in the (very) later rounds or a pickup off the waiver wire if you have a Johnny Estrada-type (i.e., injury-prone) as your starter. Yady won't score any runs or steal any bases because he's slow and bats 8th, but he could get enough PAs with men on base to generate a lot of very cheap RBIs with a decent average and a few extra HR. If he repeats his 2006 numbers, however, he has no value.

Bennett has no value, even if Molina is injured.

FIRST BASEMEN
Albert Pujols, age 27, 634 PA, .331/119/49/137/7, 180 OPS+ in 2006, 171 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan, age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

King Albert should go first overall in every league that isn't extremely pitching-heavy. His only concern is a slowly increasing fragility; his 143 games played in 2006 was a career low. Plantar fasciitis and an eerie abdominal strain have weighed him down the past two seasons, but he has yet to show it in his performance. His slugging percentage and HR rate in 2006 were both career highs; he would've easily posted his first 50-HR season if he'd had a few more games to do so. I see no reason he shouldn't finally do it in 2007 if he stays healthy, with incredible numbers all across the board.

Duncan and Spiezio both played 10+ games at 1B in '06, which makes them both eligible in standard Yahoo leagues. Duncan is an interesting case, although he's probably more valuable as an OF than a 1B. I'll discuss his case more in that section. Barring several major injuries, Spiezio won't get enough ABs to be a factor.

SECOND BASEMEN
Adam Kennedy, age 31, 503 PA, .273/50/4/55/16, 90 OPS+ in 2006, 91 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

Kennedy comes back to the Cards after seven years in Anaheim thanks to being part of the Jim Edmonds trade after the 1999 season. He very rarely hits for power, and typically batted ninth in Anaheim so he didn't drive in or score very many runs. What he does is hit for average (sometimes) and steals a few bases. His best fantasy season, which took place in the Halos' championship season of 2002, saw Kennedy hit .312 and steal 17 bases. That's not much, and that would probably be a best-case scenario in St. Louis. I'd say he's not even worth drafting at the moment despite a fairly weak 2B pool (which, as I mentioned in a previous post, makes Chase Utley an extremely valuable guy to have). However, if you're looking for a guy to fill a roster spot for a couple weeks to fill an injury or while a Howie Kendrick or Dan Uggla type encounters a bit of a sophomore slump, you could do worse off the waiver wire, especially if he keeps that average over .300.

Miles had his best season in 2006, which obviously is saying very little. If you'd have told me a year ago that Aaron Miles saw 471 plate appearances for the '06 Cards, I'd have said you were crazy. And it could've been more if Ronnie Belliard hadn't shown up. Despite his starting gig, Miles probably wasn't worth a roster spot last year, and he definitely shouldn't be this year as a utility man.

SHORTSTOPS
David Eckstein, age 32, 552 PA, .292/68/2/23/7, 81 OPS+ in 2006, 88 OPS+ career
Aaron Miles, age 30, 471 PA, .263/48/2/30/2, 75 OPS+ in 2006, 70 OPS+ career

David Eckstein's Cardinal debut in 2005 was arguably the best season of his career, but his 2006 was a struggle. After hitting .300 through the first half of the season, injuries and inconsistency pushed Eck's numbers down to what amounts to possibly his worst fantasy season. For a leadoff man, he doesn't score a whole lot of runs or steal a whole lot of bases. And he certainly doesn't hit for power. What he does, though, is get on base. His two seasons as a Cardinal produced OBPs of .363 and .350. So, perhaps he's more valuable to the Cards than he would be to anybody's fantasy team. Still, he'll probably get drafted fairly high thanks to two straight All-Star appearances and the whole World Series MVP thing.

As mentioned before, Miles has zero fantasy value as a utilityman.

THIRD BASEMEN
Scott Rolen, age 32, 594 PA, .296/94/22/95/7, 127 OPS+ in 2006, 129 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio, age 34, 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career

Rolen struggled down the stretch in '06 but still finished with numbers pretty much on par with his career averages. He'll be a top-five or so fantasy 3B, but there's a lot of ways you can get good, cheap/late round players at this position that aren't a whole lot worse. Think Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Teahen, etc. Those guys are health risks, but so is Rolen. If he can put up numbers similar to '06, he's worth a 6th round pick or so. If he doesn't stay healthy, however, it could get ugly - and not just with his stats, after what happened in last year's postseason between Rolen and La Russa. Spiezio would be a decent roster addition if Rolen was hurt, but he'd have to put up numbers similar to his '06 to be worth starting in anything but the deepest of leagues.

OUTFIELDERS
Juan Encarnacion (CF/RF), age 31, 598 PA, .278/74/19/79/6, 94 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Preston Wilson (LF/RF), age 32, 537 PA, .263/58/17/72/12, 84 OPS+ in 2006, 103 OPS+ career
Jim Edmonds (CF), age 37, 408 PA, .257/90/19/70/4, 111 OPS+ in 2006, 137 OPS+ career
So Taguchi (LF/CF), age 37, 361 PA, .266/46/2/31/11, 79 OPS+ in 2006, 90 OPS+ career
Scott Spiezio (LF), 321 PA, .272/44/13/52/1, 137 OPS+ in 2006, 96 OPS+ career
Chris Duncan (LF/RF), age 26, 314 PA, .293/60/22/43/0, 141 OPS+ in 2006, 140 OPS+ career

What a mess. The lack of clarity about how many plate appearances each one of these guys will get definitely jumbles the fantasy picture here. Edmonds is clearly the best of any of these options and will be the starting CF when healthy, but his health is a concern coming off his fewest games played as a Cardinal. Encarnacion is durable and will likely be guaranteed most of the starts in RF, but he's really not that good. Duncan surprised last year, and could get to 30 HR this season - but he won't play against lefties, and probably will lose a few late-game ABs to Taguchi or even Wilson as defensive replacements. 500 PAs wouldn't be a stretch, though, if he produces close to his 2006 level. But if Duncan slumps, La Russa might have a quicker trigger for a young player like him than a vet like Encarnacion. Wilson will likely start for Duncan or maybe even Edmonds against lefties, but barring a long-term injury to one of the three current starters or major struggles from Duncan, won't get enough PAs to be a worthwhile fantasy contributor. Taguchi provided slightly-below league-average offense in 2004 and 2005 off the Cardinals' bench, but struggled hitting for power in '06 before hitting a big HR in Game 2 of the NLCS. He won't play enough in 2007 to make a fantasy impact. Spiezio will get even less ABs as an OF, but could provide some value as an OF or 3B with a long-term injury to Scott Rolen.

STARTING PITCHERS
Chris Carpenter, age 32, 221 2/3 IP, 15/0/184/3.09/1.07, 143 ERA+ in 2006, 112 ERA+ career
Mark Mulder, age 29, 93 1/3 IP, 6/0/50/7.14/1.70, 62 ERA+ in 2006, 109 ERA+ career
Kip Wells, age 30, 44 1/3 IP, 2/0/20/6.50/1.85, 70 ERA+ in 2006, 99 ERA+ career
Anthony Reyes, age 25, 85 1/3 IP, 5/0/72/5.06/1.38, 87 ERA+ in 2006, 92 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career
Ryan Franklin, age 34, 77 1/3 IP, 6/0/43/4.54/1.54, 103 ERA+ in 2006, 100 ERA+ career
Brad Thompson, age 25, 56 2/3 IP, 1/0/32/3.34/1.38, 132 ERA+ in 2006, 138 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career

Again, a bit of a mess, but there's a bit less value here than among the outfielders. Carpenter will be a stud, as mentioned previously. Frankly, there's only a handful of pitchers I'd rather have on my roster: Santana, Peavy, Webb, Oswalt, maybe one or two others. Aside from Carp, however, there's no other sure things here. Reyes and Wainwright have lots of potential, but both will likely be given a short leash by La Russa, restricting their innings and quite possibly win totals. Wainwright's role is still somewhat up in the air, but assuming Jason Isringhausen is healthy to begin the season (and all indications are saying he will be) and given a bullpen that appears fairly deep, Wainwright will start. Wainwright (along with Looper or Thompson if they win a rotation slot) also will likely not be eligible as a SP until he clears the minimum number of starts, since he didn't start a game in 2006. Mulder is the only other Cardinal starter who will have any fantasy value, and that is up for debate. He had shoulder surgery late in the 2006 season and won't pitch until June or July. Still, the Cards signed him for two years. Given the struggles of other recent shoulder-surgery patients, the likelihood of Mulder coming back strong this season is pretty low. Still, he'll almost surely be given the chance to make his 20 starts or so, and with a solid team he might get you a few cheap wins off the waiver wire (or late in the draft). Thompson and especially Looper are intriguing (at least to me) if they gained a starting job, but that's not likely. But they, or Franklin if he wins the fifth spot, will likely give way to Mulder when he returns in July, so take their rotation spot with a grain of salt. Franklin is ultimately worthless, even if he does win the fifth starter's job.

RELIEF PITCHERS
Jason Isringhausen, age 34, 58 1/3, 4/33/52/3.55/1.46, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 117 ERA+ career
Braden Looper, age 31, 73 1/3 IP, 9/0/41/3.56/1.31, 124 ERA+ in 2006, 118 ERA+ career
Adam Wainwright, age 25, 75 IP, 2/3/72/3.39/1.15, 141 ERA+ in 2006, 130 ERA+ career

It's pretty straightforward here: Isringhausen will likely be healthy and ready to start the 2007 season after offseason surgery, so he will be given the majority of save opportunities. Wainwright shined in relief in 2006, but appears to be in line for a starting gig. Looper is probably the de facto backup closer if Wainwright moves into the rotation and could pick up a stray few . Others such as Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney are intriguing possibilities in the deepest of leagues that involve middle relief, but likely won't contribute under standard league formats.

So there it is. Tony La Russa's teams don't provide a whole lot of fantasy value outside of the stars since he likes to control his matchups so much, but there are a few sleepers here. Edmonds could bounce back from an ugly 2006, Molina could finally figure it out with the bat, and Wainwright and/or Reyes could break out as a starter. So choose wisely, and good luck to your fantasy teams in 2007.

Value City

As a result of the rash of negative energy in the Cardinals blogosphere surrounding the signing of Ryan Franklin, I thought I'd add to lboros' comparison of Franklin against various other pitchers over the past few years. My point, however, is that no matter how mediocre Franklin has been, at $1 million he's an incredible value. Take these stats, for example, taken from Franklin's and an example pitcher's last three years as a full-time starter:

                    G/GS   IP   	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	WHIP	ERA
Franklin '03-'05   96/94   603    	9.48	1.42	2.75	4.42	1.36	4.49
Pitcher B          98/97   602 2/3	9.59	1.34	3.20	4.99	1.42	4.60

Even if the ERA Franklin produces in a half-season (or whatever) of starting for the Cards is a full point higher than that 3-year total, he's still more than half a point better than that of what the Cards got out of their fifth starter a year ago. And in case you didn't guess, "Pitcher B" is just that fifth starter from a year ago, Jason Marquis, and the numbers are from his three years as a Cardinal ('04-'06). Marquis, who is entering his age-29 season, will be making $7 mil/year through 2009, courtesy of the Tribune Company. Franklin will be entering his age-35 season in 2007; despite the age difference, is it really worth $6 mil more in 2007 for half a K per 9 IP, since it's the only significant edge Marquis has? I say no way, and commend Walt for a good job finding a serviceable pitcher for way below the going rate.

Ronnie Belliard's Glorious 'Fro

Wow. Unlike 2004, even if we don't win this series, at least we'll have something to remember fondly.

Shuffling the Cards

Thanks to the Astros' victory last night, the Cards still had not clinched the division title going into today's game. However, with the possible makeup game Monday afternoon and John Smoltz's scheduled start against the Astros, Tony La Russa decided to scratch Chris Carpenter from Sunday afternoon's start, effectively buying time in a gamble to make Carpenter available for Tuesday's potential NLDS Game 1. If necessary, Carpenter would be called upon to start Monday's makeup game.

If you ask me, this move is a no-brainer. As Carpenter's replacement, Anthony Reyes was likely to struggle on three days rest after diagnosing himself as having a tired arm earlier in September - and he did, giving up 4 runs without completing the first inning. But the gamble still paid off, as the Astros were taken down by the Atlanta Braves 3-1 earlier this afternoon. So, it's the best of the both worlds - we win the division, and we have our ace pitching Game 1 of the playoffs. Thankfully, it eliminates the need for Carpenter be wasted in the makeup game on Monday.

Congratulations go out to the 2006 National League Central Division Champion St. Louis Cardinals.

About That Spreadsheet...

Dan "ZiPS" Szymborski has posted preliminary MLEs over at Primer. These are translations, not projections, so with the Cardinals' best prospects at A-ball, there's not much to get excited about. It's cute that Bryan Anderson had a "better" season at the plate (645 mOPS) at Quad Cities than Yadier Molina and Chris Duncan's translated AAA line of 254 / 330 / 402 is a note of caution, but you got take that all with a grain of salt.

What got my attention is the "m Calculator" tab. Basically it's a quick dirty measure of the toughness of the hitting and pitching environments. Here's how the farm clubs stand up:

For pitchers, "m' is more or less what you multiply actual ERA (or some variant of a DIPS ERA) to get a major league equivalent. For hitters "m" is more or less a runs created multiplier; you can probably take the square root of "m" for a quick and dirty OPS multiplier. Szymborski's saying that for pitchers there isn't much of a difference between Springfield and Memphis, and for hitters there isn't much of a difference between Palm Beach and Springfield. So much for the big jump from A to AA. Grains of salt and all that, but it's something to think about when you're looking over those prospect lists.

Peeking from my spreadsheets, this past Houston series puts the LaRussa Code in high relief. LaRussa evidently has let Isringhausen, Mulder and, to a certain extent, Edmonds make the decision about when to pull the plug. Phil Garner on the other hand is the proverbial chicken with its head cut off. Lidge was the closer, then he sorta wasn't the closer, then he really wasn't the closer, and now he's the closer again, but after Tuesday, he won't pitch to Pujols. Adam Everett, whose glove is the defensive equivalent to Manny Ramirez's bat, commits two errors and sits the next two games against a team the Astros must catch. Craig Biggio's home/road and pre/post-ASB splits are bad, so he sits too. Jason Lane and Preston Wilson struggle, so they get demoted and DFA'd. A good player like Morgan Ensberg struggles inexplicably after a hot start and he gets benched. I can see why Tony LaRussa will end up second all-time in managerial wins, while Phil Garner will be canned in the next twelve months.

There is one thing though. Apparently the Cardinals told Anthony Reyes he had a tired arm rather than the other way around. I'm past the point of second-guessing on Reyes and now I'm content to try to understand what they're doing. I suppose they're just trying to baby an injury-prone starter through his rookie season, which is both reasonable and honorable. But they have treated Reyes like he's such a burden, that it's time to ask whether they're managing less on a logical developmental plan and more to avoid reliving their Alan Benes and Rick Ankiel nightmares.

A Week in the Life

Coming back from St. Louis last Sunday, somehow the car radio ended up on KTRS. Rooney and Shannon were on, discussing with the hosts the Cardinals' then-recent play. As you may recall, the Cardinals had finished a 7-2 homestand, and the consensus on the radio was the record accurately reflected their performance. The pitching had improved, the fielding was sharp and the key hits were coming. Prosperity wasn't around the corner, because it was already here.

It wouldn't be that simple, as the Cardinals are returning home from a 2-5 road trip featuring a dizzying array of means of losing. First, there was Ramon Ortiz of all people carrying a no-hitter into the ninth. Two days later, the Cardinals overcame a rare off-game from their ace Chris Carpenter, fighting back to take a ninth inning lead, only to see Jason Isringhausen blow it with his all-to-common wildness. Isringhausen was nice enough to admit after the fact that he probably shouldn't be out there. Two days after that, Anthony Reyes got smoked and the Cardinals could manage only one run off Livan Hernandez. Reyes then stated he's got a tired arm, meaning Jason Marquis will pitch on short rest (the difference between 2006 and 2005 is...). Next, Brandon Webb manhandled the Cardinals for the second near no-hitter in six days. Finally, Sunday we witnessed what Joe Garagiola -- the Joe Garagiola -- described as Ringling Brothers defense, followed by a non-closer bullpen meltdown.

In other words, I can't blame that on Marquis, Mulder, Weaver or Ponson.

It's old ground, but after last weekend's optimism, it bears repeating: This team is mediocre. When the Cardinals are down by two in the ninth, and Skip Schumaker is leading off and Aaron Miles is pinch hitting for So Taguchi (couldn't Chris Duncan watch those Sosa homers just as well?), then now we know many holes it takes to fill the Albert Hall. They don't pitch well, they don't hit well and they don't field well, and that's not going to change over the next month.

With that in mind, I suppose it's not surprising that Joe Strauss is looking towards the offseason. LaRussa and Jocketty provide all manner of good sound bytes in this article. Take this for example:

"At some point in the near future, the fans and the media are going to want to see someone new and fresh," La Russa said. "The fact that we've been successful has prolonged our tenure with the Cardinals. And it's true the things I'm closer to would be my relationship with the players and the trust of ownership and the front office. But there's another side."

Added La Russa: "Whether it's this year, next year or the year after that -- at some point, enough's enough."

What the hell does that mean? Or this:

"We try to find top-of-the-rotation starters every year," Jocketty said. "But they are hard to find. That's why this season we addressed the offense..."

OK, I'm trying to move past cynicism. It's still discouraging to read that the theme of the upcoming offseason is flexibility, since that's just another way of saying they're desperate for top-flight talent. I suppose it's a good thing that the recognition is there, but it's not clear what the Cardinals can do to find that talent, and if DeWitt is serious about the need to retain prospects, then it's not clear that this is the group to do it.

* * * * *

It is September 11th. I don't have any deep thoughts to add, but I will suggest reading Gary Smith's lengthy article on Pat Tillman, and if you're ever east of Pittsburgh, then you want to visit the Flight 93 Memorial.

And Phil Cuzzi's Behind the Plate Today...

Some numbers to divert my and your attention away from an unpleasant loss:

1.1 Aaron Miles's WARP1 prior to Saturday's action. You'll have to trust me on this, but it was down to 0.1 until his recent hot spell. Remember Opening Day? Jocketty walked into a casino, found a poker chip on the floor, won big on the very first spin of the roulette wheel and then slowly but surely watched that pile of chips slip away. Now he's hit 21 a couple of times at the blackjack table.

2 - Juan Encarnacion's rank, according to Zone Rating among "qualified" right fielders. He takes some odd routes and he can get too casual, but Encarnacion can cover some ground.

-2.7 - Reggie Sanders's VORP. I think we've got our answer about Encarnacion (11.6) versus Sanders. That's not the best question though, as the mistake with right field was made at some unknown time before October 2005.

.264. - Yadier Molina's on-base percentage. Let's see, Ozzie Smith had a .260 OBP in his age-24 season, and things turned out OK for him, although Ozzie is the exception more than the norm. Hagan and Horton seemed to think he's playing hurt, which raises some ugly questions. Is an ailing Molina the best option? If he is, then what does that say of the Cardinals' alternatives?

Something less than $10 millon - What Jim Edmonds will make in 2007. When Jose Vizcaino is pinch-hitting with Edmonds available, then the prognosis isn't good. The only nice thing about the Mulder Debacle is that it kept me from thinking about something that would really hurt. It was a great run.

Something more than 10 million - The number of times I've heard that one song from Tom Petty on MLB.tv. MLB.com would be politely described as disjointed. It used to be they played the straight feed, ads and all, usually from the home team. For most of this season, they cut-out commercial breaks and just put up bland ads like "Get a blog at MLBlog" or "Buy merchandise at MLB.com" on a blue background with no sound. Now for some reason they keep showing that same Petty song, the same word scramble (I think they misspell Esteban Loaiza's first name) and the same suggestion to print tickets at home.

2 - The answer to L Boros's question about how many times three pitchers have reached the 100-win milestone in the same year for the same team. The 1920 Yankees had Carl Mays, Jack Quinn and Bob Shawkey at the right time. The 1956 White Sox had Billy Pierce and two relievers, Gerry Staley and Ellis Kinder, pick up their 100th career W's.

423 - Adam Wainwright's OPS lefty-righty split. For the sake of convenience, here's the how the August 31st relievers stack-up in 2006:

Anthony Reyes by the way has a 689/918 L/R reverse split. Yes, that changeup does the job. I can understand why the Cardinals want a light load for Reyes in 2006, but it'll be interesting to see if they're willing to put him or Sosa on the postseason roster. Hancock could be a pretty important guy in the postseason, assuming that happens.

100.00000 - Percentage of the time the Mets make the post-season, according to the PECOTA version of BPro's postseason odds. The division races look pretty darn dull.

182-98 and 180-160 - The Cardinals' record from 2003 to 2006 when John Mabry has been on the 25-man roster and when Mabry hasn't been on the roster. Now you know why Billy Beane traded for him.

September Suggestion

I saw this in today's Memphis Commercial-Appeal:

Alan Benes got an emergency start for the Memphis Redbirds Friday night in what was likely his last appearance before retiring from the game.

He's a mop-up guy these days and the only way he'll help the club is by saving Brad Thompson and Josh Kinney from pitching too much in blowouts, which is pretty far down the ladder of concerns. And there's always the worry that Tony LaRussa will do something silly like let Benes pitch the ninth of a tie game. But if the Cardinals can throw away two games to preserve the honor of a two-year Cardinal and free agent-to-be, then they can give a roster spot to Alan Benes.

It's Alive!

If you're going to have a weekend to remember, then you might as well have it against the Cubs, on network television, in the heat of the pennant race and when the team's desperate for wins. So here's to you, Gary Bennett. You've made-up for that other big moment of your career.

Before I go Chris Fowler and over-orchestrated strings, I've got an axe to grind here. When watching the Cardinals on television, especially network television, I've been told that the Cardinals don't care whether their catcher can hit so long as he can handle the pitching staff. While I'd like to think the Cardinals aren't stuck in some pre-Bill James cave, it has been seven years now that they've basically tanked the catcher's spot in the lineup. I'm not saying catcher's defense isn't important; that stathead prejudice has been dead and buried for a few years now. This just seems as a good as time as any to attack the notion that catcher's defense somehow trumps catcher's offense. We've foregone a few games like this, and it has hurt the club in the standings. This offseason the Cardinals need to make an honest appraisal of Yadier Molina's hitting, because they're not in a position where they can settle for an offensive void.

OK, back to the sepia-toned stuff. Over the weekend I was on the road, and got to listen to Friday night's Giants-Reds games (wouldn't it be neat if the Cardinals had something like WLW as their flagship?). MattyMo's three-hitter against a team tied with the Cardinals was enjoyable enough, but his eighth inning two-run double literally gave me goose bumps. Assuming the Giants have the sense to arrange it, the one game to see in Busch this year is Morris's return. Too bad I'll be otherwise occupied.

Other notes:

• Chris Duncan is the flipside of Molina. He turned two routine flyouts into doubles on Friday, and at the very least turned a single into another double. To quantify that, turn a couple of Duncan doubles into outs and another double into a single and you've docked him 30 or so points of OPS. Of course he's still having a nice season, but I don't know what you do with Duncan. Unfortunately the Cardinals have a history of giving players coming off an overachieving season the opportunity to prove that they in fact were overachieving (16-game winner Garrett Stephenson, Jason Simontacchi, So Taguchi). I'm not really looking forward to his 2007 campaign.

• Anthony Reyes threw seven innings of shutout ball last night at Memphis to go along with six shutout innings in his previous start. Compare how he handled the demotion to AAA to Luna's apparent moping last year, and Reyes has shown his own resilience. That reminds me, Al Reyes has returned to pitch at AAA as well.

• For some reason I thought of Larry Bigbie on Sunday.

Two Nights in August

I need to apologize to Edmonds. It turns out he had a darn good reason to look clueless at the plate:

Edmonds mentioned to assistant trainer Greg Hauck that he was having difficulty focusing and had blurred vision before taking the field for the fifth inning... Until he woke up Wednesday, Edmonds had thought it was only the second inning when he came out...

There were other shaky moments on Tuesday. During his second at-bat, which ended with an awkward swing for strike three on a pitch from Aaron Harang that was up and in, Edmonds said he was just trying to survive.

"I swung at a pitch and felt like I was going to, not literally, but fall over," Edmonds said. "I was like, wow, how am I going to get through this?"

Yeah, wow. Get it taken care of, Jim. You only get one brain. I'm not real happy to see LaRussa pushing/hinting for Edmonds' quick return. Jeez, put the man on the disabled list to prevent something silly.

Anthony Reyes's outing was a big downer in its own right. Consider this:

That's some substantial deterioration at the major league level, especially in the walks category. Yeah, I know major league hitters are better. That said, I saw Edwin Encarnacion at AAA a year ago, and he wasn't shooting rockets all over the field. So unless he went to Harry Potter's school during the offseason, he doesn't have magical MLB hitter dust. OK, there are adjustments and yadda yadda yadda. Still, if it was that big of a difference, would Chris Duncan have an OPS 200 points lower at Memphis in 2006?

The thing is, all of the Cardinals non-Cy Young starters have struggled this season. Meanwhile Dan Haren is throwing another six shutout innings. Mark Mulder was probably damaged goods; we can curse Billy Beane and the mindset that the Cardinals Needed Big Name Pitching to win in the post-season. There's a bigger problem here though. In spite of Bernie Miklasz's repeated complaints to the contrary, the Cardinals have invested a decent chunk of resources in their pitching, and most of that investment has been in players they've had ample opportunity to develop and evaluate up-close-and-personal. Haren, Marquis, the 2006 Mulder, Suppan, Reyes -- these are the guys the Cardinals should've known better than anyone (or anything, in the case of statistics). It just doesn't look that way.

The final downer of the night was Timo Perez, the outfielder with the career 77 OPS+ hitting in the 5th spot of the lineup. They say the ball will find a weak defensive player. In this case the key at-bats found the weak hitter, as Timo twice batted with the bases loaded. Man, the Cardinals have some tough questions to ask themselves.

Eight is Enough

Continuing on the theme about the pitching, the Cardinals have completed exactly two-thirds of the season. That lends itself to some easy comparison versus the prior season totals. I'll borrow from Lee Sinins and look at run-saved above average (RSAA), assuming average is around 4.5 runs per 9 innings. For even more kicks, I'll look at runs saved above replacement level (RSAR), assuming replacement level is 6.0 runs per 9 innings. I'll pro-rate 2006 to an entire season by simply multiplying by 1.5. I'm going to group the relievers into closer, right-handers and left-handers.

The starting rotation has been a disaster and the lefty specialists haven't been much better. The right-handed setup men have sorta maintained their value, but they're on pace to pitch almost 50% more innings than in 2005 (223.7 IP thus far in 2006 versus 230 IP in all of 2005). While Isringhausen also is on pace for a few extra innings, he's not the problem either, as his 2005 run performance was unsustainably excellent.

Some Duncan Thoughts

Let's start from the beginning. Chris Duncan was the 46th player taken in the 1999 amateur draft. The Cardinals, as they are prone to doing, opened themselves to charges of nepotism. This is the team that drafted Tom Pagnozzi's nephew, Andy Van Slyke's son and Albert Pujols's cousin, and then there was that Cody McKay experiment. Before we indict the Cardinals for Duncan favoritism though, consider the five draftees in front of Duncan and the five behind:

41. Casey Burns - Pitcher who never made it above A-ball, according to the Baseball Cube.

42. Mike Rosamond - Hasn't played at the majors and currently playing for the AA Mississippi Braves. It's probably not a coincidence that he's from Mississippi.

43. Jimmy Gobble - Lefty swingman with a career 5.19 ERA at the majors. He's actually striking guys out this year (50 in 59 IP), but the polite term is mediocre.

44. Scott Rice - First stop at AAA this year, where he's been mediocre. I think he was re-signed as a minor league free agent, although I'm having trouble verifying that.

45. Rob Purvis - Another pitcher who hasn't made it to the majors and was last seen in the independent Northern League.

47. David Mead - Pitcher that topped out at A-ball.

48. Casey Fossum - OK, he made it to the majors and has had some success. Sorta. The 3.46 ERA for the 2002 Red Sox doesn't look quite so pretty when you make some attempt to factor in the 15 unearned runs. Fossum hurt his arm and then was part of the Schilling trade. He's got a career 5.11 ERA.

49. Mike Bynum - Career 7.73 ERA at the majors, all of that with the Padres. Minor league free agent this year, although he hasn't pitched in the affiliated minors.

50. Brian Roberts - The one clearly better ballplayer of the bunch. Even if he doesn't repeat his 2005 All-Star-caliber performance, he's darn solid.

51. Nick Trzesniak - Catcher who's made it to AAA, but not the majors. Six-year minor league free agent signed by the Rangers for 2006.

Those ten plus Duncan were the last eleven picks of the first round in 1999. For the sake of completeness, Carl Crawford was the first player taken in the second round (Crawford went to Jefferson Davis High School in Houston, which is sorta interesting). On the other hand, the Cardinals drafted Nick Stocks and Chance Caple ahead of Duncan, neither of whom came close to the majors. The point I'm taking from this is that "first round pick" isn't nearly as promising as it sounds. It's anecdotal, but I can see why Brian Sabean throws away later first round picks and Billy Beane went after fat catchers who drew walks.

OK, so Duncan was drafted, and while I'm sure his father's position had some role in the decision, Duncan's looking like a defensible pick these days. The stats say it wasn't looking so good for Duncan at A-ball however. It took him four and half seasons to graduate to AA, compiling an aggregate line of 261 / 328 / 395 in over 1800 at-bats. If you're a slick-fielding shortstop or a catcher with a cannon, then that's not bad. If you're a plodding first baseman, then you're lucky to still have a job.

Then the light came on in 2004. Duncan hit 289 / 393 / 473, a respectable showing for a 23-yo 1B making his first pass through AA. My dad lived about an hour's drive from the Tennessee Smokies' home park, so we witnessed Duncan's play a few of times. I saw him slap a changeup over the left field wall, something you don't see much in AA. I also saw some clumsy defense at first base, and according to the more devoted fans we talked to, that was pretty common.

In 2005 Duncan regressed a bit at AAA, hitting 265 / 358 / 469. The lower batting average is a function of all the strikeouts. The home run against Brad Penny explains what he's trying to do, sometimes taking a swing so big that he almost falls down. Getting back to AAA, in 2005 Duncan worked in the OF some, although oddly he was mainly a 1B. Yeah, I know, Duncan's defense in LF sucks -- on Sunday Edmonds caught a clear F7 that Duncan lost in broad daylight -- but so does his defense at 1B and he moves well enough compared to your average left fielder that there's some hope for mediocrity in the outfield. There's also this guy at 1B who's not going anywhere. Either the Cardinals think Duncan's outfield defense is that bad or he was being prepped for a trade or maybe they didn't want to distract him from his offense... or the Cardinals simply screwed-up.

After a slow April, in 2006 Duncan's basically matched his 2005 line with a 271 / 359 / 448. Duncan's translated minor league numbers aren't all that promising, maybe a 250 / 325 / 400. Give him a little more power, because don't forget, he's 6-foot-5. Just as I can't get too down over Jeff Suppan's and Jason Marquis's 2006 ERAs, I can't get too excited about Chris Duncan's 2006 OPS. It was fun hearing the impression Duncan left on Vin Scully over the weekend, but it's way, way too early to see Duncan as THE solution to the left field problem.

* * * * *

I read the minor league box scores every day, and Larry Bigbie, the alleged other leading candidate for LF, apparently has hurt himself again while on rehab assignment. Either that or he's gone AWOL. Maybe it's just as well, because who gets sent down when Bigbie returns? Duncan has to ride out his hot streak, so he's not going anywhere. J-Rod has his issues, but Bigbie will be hard-pressed to match Rodriguez's 818 OPS (same as last year's), and honestly I wouldn't want to be the guy who gets to tell Rodriguez he's returning to the minors. Could they demote Aaron Miles? Would Tony LaRussa survive without a real backup middle infielder? I thought not, and then Scott Spiezio started at 2B on Saturday. While I won't make too much of it, the Spiezio start was an interesting little decision. Of course it suggests LaRussa thinks (or wanted to see whether) Spiezio can handle the position and it also signals that LaRussa doesn't think he can work Spiezio into the outfield mix.

* * * * *

Where do transaction rumors start? Peter Gammons's job is to send messages to the French Resistance, so that's a different matter. I mean the non-gossip columnist stuff. If you're the Cardinals, do you float rumors to see how the fanbase will react? Or do you float rumors to send messages to your players? Or to be more cynical, are you trying to generate fake excitement to cover for an expected lack of movement? Or maybe you're trying to get some columnist off your back who wants anything to feed the masses? Or maybe it's not by design, and one of your underlings is trying to impress a girl? Or maybe that underling has had a few too many drinks? I don't know obviously. I do know that the Cardinals aren't particularly interested in keeping the public informed beyond what they think will generate ticket sales. I'm deeply suspicious of the motives behind stories like the Dontrelle Willis rumor.

Edmonds Catch

The picture of Rodriguez after he homered wasn't quite as spectacular, but it captured the moment, the relief everybody probably felt on Friday night.

So Long, Sid Ponson

Large pitchers may come and large pitchers may go, and never change your team's ERA.

Sidney Ponson has been DFA'd according to Matthew Leach. Ponson was reasonably effective last night, and while the walks, the hit batsman and the runners Josh Kinney stranded tend to make me think it was flukey, the big guy left on a positive note. There's something tragic or epic -- or maybe noble's the right word for Sir Sid -- about a man getting the job done in front of 40,000 people when he knows he's about to be canned.

I suppose he's a bit of a victim of circumstance, that if the rest of the pitching staff had done what it was supposed to do, or at least been within shouting distance of where it was supposed to be, Sid would've been given a longer leash. Or for that matter, if the Cardinals were in last place, then maybe the pressure isn't there. Still this was a long shot, and I hope everybody saw it coming in, so it's a little easier as it all goes out.

2005 Balls and Strikes

OK, I like the Edmonds adjustment and I assume I'm not the only one who thinks of John Stuper during a lengthy rain delay for a night game.

Changing gears here, Retrosheet's 2005 event files are available, and during that lengthy rain delay I did a little parsing. Below is a table breaking down each Cardinal batter's balls in play (X), called strikes (C), swinging strikes (S), foul tips (T), bunt strikes (BS), pitchouts (PO), unintentional balls (B), intentional balls (IB) and hit batsmen (HB).