I figured with my screen name, I had to make some comment about the link below. This guy was one of the best hitters in baseball in the 70s, and I think his attitude will add some toughness and teach some of the Brew Crew youngsters "the right way to play". I think it's comparable to Arizona hiring Kirk Gibson for the 2007 season. Way to go Ted -- glad to have you back in uniform, even if you're not wearing the birds on the bat.

More details here.

TSF

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(Nick on Nov 3, 2007 10:41 PM) What's going on with the Birdwatch? If you plan bringing this thing back to life I would love to contribute, you can check out some of my work at www.imwritingsports.com... I used to love this site, forgot it existed actually

(TedSimmonsFan on Nov 8, 2007 11:48 AM) Hey there, Nick, Sorry for the delay on the follow-up. You're probably aware that there are several writers who have been involved with The Birdwatch over its almost 3-year existence. I can't speak for all of them, but for me, it's come down to two things: 1 - time 2 - Viva El Birdos It's been tough to find the time to write regularly, and after reading what's written at VEB, there's not much left to say. A tip of the Cardinals' cap to Larry B and the rest of his writing crew. However, I'll drop a note to the ringleader here to convey your interest, and maybe we'll be able to post an answer to your very reasonable question. Regards, TSF

(MO Boiler on Nov 9, 2007 10:26 PM) I'm still around, with basically the same excuses as TSF. Every time I want to write something, it takes me long enough to do it that it's not relevant anymore, or already being discussed elsewhere. I couldn't tell you how many unfinished posts I have on the server and/or my work computer. Oh well. Perhaps next season we can give it another go.

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The Cards are terrible, but they're still in the race. Winning lots of games this week at home and then next week against the two teams ahead of them, however, is rather crucial.

Next post (yes, it's in-depth, I couldn't help myself) comes shortly.

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Ronnie Belliard will get his ring this weekend as the Nats come to St. Louis - he was lucky enough to wear the BoB at just the right time, from August to October 2006. He didn't really do much as a Cardinal outside of a great Division Series performance, but he's on the list nonetheless. We will never forget the 'Fro. Ronnie signed with the Nats for a remarkably cheap $750,000 in the offseason.

This season, Ronnie got off to a hot start - hitting .309/.343/.392 as recently as April 29 - but since then, he's managed just 6 singles and 4 walks in 45 PA, and been stuck in a quasi-platoon with Felipe Lopez and the triple machine that is Cristian Guzman. Against the Orioles at RFK on Friday, he came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning with the tying run on first base (then second, after a stolen base), and struck out.

Ray King was a Cardinal in 2004 and 2005, pitching two of the better seasons of his career in St. Louis. As a situational lefty, he held opposing left-handed hitters to a .150/.236/.168 line in 2004. He regressed a bit the next year, however, and while he didn't post that terrible of an ERA in his second season, his peripherals were much worse, dropping to a lefty/righty OPS split of .673/.981 in '05 after a .404/.688 in '04. That 2005 season ended poorly, as Ray was not used in the postseason and bad-mouthed Cardinal management thereafter. He was soon traded to the Rockies for Aaron Miles and Larry Bigbie.

Ray had a mediocre season as a Rockie in 2006; his strikeout rate dropped for the fifth consecutive season, and he posted a 4.43 ERA. As a National this season, Ray has struggled, posting a 6.55 ERA coming into the weekend series in St. Louis with a 5/5 K/BB ratio and 4 HR allowed in 11 innings. On Friday, he came in to start the top of the 7th inning to face the top of the O's lineup; he gave up a double to Brian Roberts before retiring Nick Markakis on a groundout. He was relieved by Winston Abreu and Roberts was stranded at second base.

And then there's Get Up Baby favorite Jason Simontacchi. Simo came up with the Cards in May 2002 when the starting rotation was decimated by injuries. He stuck by going 7-1 in his first 10 starts with the big club, posting a 2.77 ERA despite only a 26/17 K/BB in 61 2/3 IP in those starts. His ERA caught up to his peripherals in later starts, however, and he ended up at 4.02 for the season. Simo struggled out of the gate in 2003, but still made 16 starts before being demoted to the bullpen in early July. There, he proved a reliable long man, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 29/12 K/BB in 45 IP, which included one spot start late in the year. Despite his preference to start, he was slotted for that role in 2004 coming out of spring training, but gave up runs in his first four appearances and was demoted to Memphis. He was sent down and called up several times throughout the '04 season, and in those major-league appearances he only gave up 3 ER in 10 IP, but couldn't consistely crack what was a strong 'pen on that 105-win team.

After leaving the Cards after the 2004 season, Simo disappeared. Seriously. Perhaps Dan at GUB might've tracked him better and would know, but I can't find any record of him playing baseball in 2005. In '06, Simo emerged from his hiding and surfaced with the Bridgeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League. He pitched on a staff which included several former Cardinals: T.J. Mathews, Jimmy Journell, Luther Hackman, Donovan Osborne (ugh), and Pedro Borbon Jr. (yikes!). In 2007, Simo showed up in spring training with the Nats - a wise choice given the fact that only one slot in their starting rotation was set (John Patterson), and even he was injury-prone - and made two uninspiring starts in Columbus before being called up to make his first major league appearance since October 2, 2004 on May 8. Simo has actually pitched well in a Nats uniform, getting his second win in his fourth start in Cincinnati on Wednesday, and posting a 4.37 ERA with a 16/7 K/BB in 22 2/3 IP. On Friday against the O's, he gave the Nats a quality start, giving up 3 ER in 6 IP with 6 K/1 BB. Given the state of the Nats' rotation, he should stick if he continues to put up numbers that are anywhere decent.

Finally, I have to mention the former Cardinal broadcaster Bob Carpenter, who is in his second season as the Nats' play-by-play guy for the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network after spending over ten years with the Cards. Bob's been doing an excellent job, as always, with the Nats, and I'm sure those in St. Louis who remember him as fondly as yours truly does will be glad to see him back in town - just like the rest of these guys.

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• Josh Hancock. Wow. There isn't anything I can say about the guy that hasn't been said already, but I'll probably do it anyway. The story broke while I was on the road last Sunday; I'd planned on watching the Sunday night game from my hotel room, only to arrive and hear the news of Hancock's death. After hearing the details and seeing the footage on Sportscenter that night, the first thought that I had was: "he must've been drunk." After all, how else do you fail to avoid a tow truck with its lights flashing on a clear night? Sadly, that presumption turned out to be the truth, as Hancock's blood-alcohol level was nearly twice the legal limit at 0.157 - and accident reconstruction crews have determined that he was talking on his cell phone at the time of the accident, in addition to having a small amount of marijuana in the car.

In the aftermath, the Cards have banned alcohol from the clubhouse. Frankly, what good does that do? After all, Hancock had been drinking at Shannon's, and possibly elsewhere. If these guys that want to drink can't do it in the clubhouse, they'll find someplace they can. After all, quite a few of professional baseball players are young, single and make a lot of money. Guys like that don't sit at home and do jigsaw puzzles - they go out and have a good time. The more appropriate course of action for the club to take, if they so chose, would be to provide transportation for these guys if they choose to go out drinking after games. While that may be a complicated proposition financially and/or logistically, clubs might be forced to make this sort of business decision in order to avoid tragedies such as the one involving Hancock.

• Chris Carpenter is out for "at least three months" with arthroscopic elbow surgery. We're waiting for Will Carroll's further input, but it's basically been determined that Carp's been pitching with bone spurs in his elbow for the better part of his tenure in the Cardinal organization. According to Carroll, the contract extension that Carp signed in the offseason was offered to him with that knowledge. So, perhaps the organization is taking its medicine with Carp for this season in the hopes that he can recover to at least his 2004 level in 2008-2011. As for this season, it's been rumored that Brad Thompson will take Carp's slot in the rotation for the moment. One slightly crazy option further down the road is a déja vu reunion with Jeff Weaver, who is quite possibly on the verge of being released mid-season once again by Seattle. With Mark Mulder due back by the All-Star break or so, however, this rotation slot is likely only a two-month job.

• David Eckstein, for the first time in his Cardinal career, has been removed from the leadoff spot. I guess it's a reasonable move, as Eckstein had a .280 OBP with no power and only 6 walks in 109 PA. The problem is twofold, however: 1) if Eck's not getting on base around a .350 clip, as he did in 2006, he's rather useless anywhere you put him in the lineup, and 2) who else is going to bat leadoff? Here's a list of those who've batted in the #1 slot since Eck's demotion (Eck included), with BA and OBP listed:

Preston Wilson, .219/.265
Aaron Miles, .235/.259
Skip Schumaker, .238/.267
David Eckstein, .216/.280
So Taguchi, .263/.333
Scott Spiezio, .226/.339

This isn't a good group (understatement of the month), but if it's not gonna be Eck, why not keep trying Spiezio up there? Even while not hitting for average, he's at least displayed the ability to take a walk - and with Chris Duncan and Albert Pujols the only two players on the roster even remotely hitting well, the Cards need all the baserunners they can get in front of those two guys. And with Wilson on the disabled list, Spiezio presumably will be getting more starts in right field.

• The Milwaukee Brewers seem poised to run away and hide in the NL Central. Going into Sunday's games, the Crew was ten games over .500, with a five game lead in the division - and an eight-game lead over the last-place Cardinals. With the rest of the teams in the Central showing their obvious flaws, the Brewers taking such a lead with what appears to be, on paper, the most complete team in the division could mean a very long summer for the Cards and their second-division counterparts.

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To read more about last Saturday's game, the highlight of which was the second AAA start by Cincinnati Reds überprospect Homer Bailey, click below.

Bailey was the Reds' first-round draft pick (7th overall) in 2004. After some mediocre seasons in the lowest levels of the minor leagues, he jumped quickly through the Reds' system in 2006 with 138 2/3 IP of 10+ K/9 ball, with a combined ERA of 2.46 in high-A and AA. Coming into the 2007 season, he sported a career strikeout rate of 10.27 K/9; unfortunately, he battled significant enough control problems in '04 to keep his career walk rate slightly above 4.0 BB/9. In his first start with the AAA Louisville Bats, he pitched 5 1/3 good innings against the Toledo Mud Hens after being spotted an early 13-0 lead; the only run was from the only hit, a solo home run by (former Cardinal!) Timo Perez. Still, he walked three batters in that first start and only struck out four, the control problems evident.

Against the Tides on Saturday, Bailey pitched about the same. On a cold, windy night Bailey was lifted after only 5 innings and 90 pitches. The batters were fooled, as he only allowed three hits, none of which were hit terribly hard - but he struggled again with control, posting the same 4/3 K/BB ratio, including putting himself into a sticky situation in the bottom of the fifth inning. With two outs, Bailey walked Tides leadoff hitter Eider Torres, who stole second. Apparently rattled, Bailey also walked Brandon Fahey, bringing up the hot-hitting J.R. House - who frankly, should be playing in Baltimore. House was fooled on a 1-2 curve in the dirt, and tried to check his swing. What followed was one of the stranger plays I've ever seen: Torres broke for third and Fahey broke for second upon seeing the catcher have trouble with the ball, causing distraction enough for a slight hesitation by catcher Dan Conway. After recovering, however, Conway elected to ask for an appeal to first base on the check swing instead of trying to throw . House had anticipated this, however, and was most of the way to first by the time the strikeout was called by the first base ump. Conway attempted to throw out House at first, but was a half-step too late. Still, Bailey got out of the jam by painting the inside corner for a called strike three on the eighth pitch of the at-bat against former Padres minor league masher Jon Knott.

Having never seen him pitch before, what struck me the most about him was the armsy, flailing nature of his delivery. I'm no expert on pitching mechanics so I can't comment on the injury risk, but he appeared to have lots of problems locating pretty much every pitch, as he just looked to be throwing as hard as he could. He hit 94 on the Tides' gun, but consistency of location was a problem. Until he can get the walk rate down a little bit, I don't anticipate him seeing a major-league roster. Still, what he's done is pretty spectacular for a kid who hasn't had his first legal drink (he turns 21 on May 3).

As for the rest of the game, I was amazed at how many names I knew on both rosters. The Bats featured Cardinal World Series nemesis Mark Bellhorn, former Yankee Bubba Crosby, Wayne Krivsky favorite Gary Majewski (who threw fifteen pitches in 1 1/3 innings without allowing a ball hit out of the infield; he looked positively nasty, perhaps his health problems are a thing of the past and he can get back to his 2005 form), as well as former cup-of-coffee-holder and sexual predator Brian Shackelford and Reds hitting prospects Norris Hopper and Joey Votto. The Tides were a little less well known, with the highlights being the aforementioned Fahey, who took over for Brian Roberts in Baltimore in 2006 and stuck as an outfielder, former Twin Terry Tiffee, and former United States Olympian and journeyman reliever Todd Williams. The Bats took an first-inning lead as Tides right fielder Luis Montanez misplayed a ball into a double which resulted in a run. Bellhorn doubled and scored in the fourth to give the Bats a 2-0 lead, but the Tides answered in the bottom half, putting runners on second and third with one out and a run in. Bailey recovered, though, by inducing a pop-up and soft fly ball to get out of the inning. The Tides tied the game off the Bats' bullpen in the seventh, getting an infield single to chase Majewski and then loading the bases with one out thanks to a couple of walks by Jason Kershner before a House sacrifice fly. The Bats took over in the top of the ninth, however; Votto broke the tie with a 2-run triple off losing pitcher Cory Doyne, opening the floodgates for a 6-spot, all with two outs. Kershner pitched a scoreless eighth for the win.

Harbor Park in Norfolk was a very nice ballpark, featuring a fan-friendly concoursewhich allowed views of the entire field and the harbor/river beyond, and not a bad seat in the house with the prices $11 and below, but on a cold night with a stiff breeze blowing straight in from center I couldn't help but spend most of the last three innings on my feet walking the park to get different views. The best parts were the hot pretzel vendors, who heated pretzels on hot coals in front of you and had tons of options for toppings, and the trains that blew their whistle as they periodically went by within view of the right field fence. That sound in twilight automatically makes me think of Roy Hobbs and the Whammer dueling as the trains whistled in the background.

And so begins the Minor League Road Trip series... we'll see where it takes us from here, but all else aside, it was a fun start.

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(Erik on Apr 21, 2007 2:05 PM) Mo Boiler-Let me know if you ever do get to see one of our affiliates in person. I'd be greatly interested in whatever you'd have to report.

(Len Cleavelin on Apr 22, 2007 10:30 AM) Where are you located? If you're within striking distance of a PCL park (Nashville?) you can catch the Redbirds as they come by.

(MO Boiler on Apr 23, 2007 10:34 AM) Len, Nashville is in fact the closest PCL city to me, but it's still 12 hours' drive. Perhaps I'll catch the Redbirds in some other travels. Erik, I do plan on seeing the Batavia team play sometime later this summer, and possibly the Johnson City team as well. I will keep you posted.

So which plate appearances do we base judgement on? Well, it's been said he's not taking enough walks, but that appears to be a slight misinformation as his P/PA on the season is as high as it's ever been in his career. Yes, his walk rate is a bit down, but it's a really small sample. I don't want to jinx anything by saying this, but Albert should be fine. In fact, we're probably more likely to see more days like this one where he'll hit a few home runs - after all, he is an awfully talented hitter - while still not entirely seeing the ball well. And when he gets in the groove, look out.

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It's hard to believe Minute Maid Park/Enron Field is in its eighth season, but it's true. And despite the fact that in my head, it's a house of horrors for the Cards, they've managed to post a 30-28 regular season record down there in its lifespan. Unfortunately, in the postseason, it hasn't been so rosy; the Astros swept the Cards 3-0 in the 2004 NLCS, and if it wasn't for a certain Brad Lidge-served moon shot by Albert Pujols, they would've been swept 3-0 in the 2005 NLCS as well. Still, that's one win in six postseason games down there, which is awfully ugly. It's enough to forget about the couple of times the Cards swept series down there during the regular season.

Despite all that trauma still somewhat fresh in my mind, your intrepid TBW.com travel correspondent ventured into the lion's den last weekend for the Cards' first road series of 2007. It was a fun weekend, as they took two of three from the hated Astros, despite some unseasonably awful weather (highs were in the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, with rain). Observations, opinions and displays of photographic skill are shown after the jump.

Friday night's game actually took place on a beautiful spring night, and was a special occasion: Jeff Bagwell Appreciation Night. From all of the wrath Bags imposed on the Cardinal franchise throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, I still had a healthy respect for the guy as a player and a person (the same goes for Craig Biggio). So naturally, I was on my feet applauding for the guy when he came out of the Astros' dugout.

The Astros' public relations/graphics/whatever departments were pretty clever, too; on Friday for Bagwell Night, each player in the starting lineup got a Bagwellesque goatee photoshopped onto their face on the scoreboard. Some were funnier than others (as many of them almost looked natural), but this one was easily the best:

Also, the Astros' 2007 slogan was Return of the Good Guys, an homage to Westerns, I guess. Pictures everywhere showed the likes of Oswalt, Biggio, Berkman, and Lee in menacing poses with bats on their shoulders, and it was a consistent theme. They went a little overboard with the enormous banners on the exterior walls of the ballpark, I think, but their displays on the scoreboard when the Cards came up were also pretty clever:

From the outside, Minute Maid Park is actually not all that bad looking. The steel beams painted green offer a nice contrast to whatever portion of the facade they are paired with (i.e. glass walls, brick areas, and white roof), and the landscaping around the park is very nice. (I didn't take any good pictures of the exterior, mostly thanks to the weather.) The Astros also included a Houston landmark into the design of the ballpark by using the old Union Station building as the club's offices out beyond the left field facade; however, it's not quite as prominent a feature as the Western Metal Supply building in San Diego.

As for the interior of the ballpark, it's been labeled as ridiculous by some, and I for one have been an outspoken opponent of the Crawford Boxes being so close to home plate (case in point, the Berkman home run in Game 5 of the '05 NLCS). But being at a game there, especially when you're sitting down the first base line on a night with the roof open, it's not quite as obscene:

Still, the Chick Fil-A foul poles, the hill, the flag pole, the Crawford Boxes, the giant gas pump, the locomotive complete with tender full of oranges for God's sakes... it's very gimmicky, but most new ballparks are. But the roof... oh dear, the roof. As an open-air ballpark, Minute Maid actually wasn't that bad. But with the roof closed, it's very odd. Especially when it clears out towards the end of games - you can hear a lot of things that you normally wouldn't hear, even in an empty open-air ballpark. Plus, the lighting is really, really strange during the day.

Pictured above is Kip Wells, who was absolutely dealing in the series finale on Easter Sunday. Wells only allowed three baserunners (one hit, one walk, one hit batsman) in seven shutout innings while striking out eight. Brad Lidge, however, was not dealing; his wildness and resulting blowup on Sunday in mop-up duty caused Phil Garner to remove him from the closer's role despite only getting one save opportunity in the Astros' first five games. It's always nice to see Lidge face Albert Pujols, although on this particular occasion Brad got the better of the matchup, forcing a grounder to short (which Adam Everett made an tough-luck error on). The best part about Lidge's appearance, however, was his battle with Yadier Molina:

Ball, Y Molina doubled to deep center, S Rolen and S Spiezio scored, D Borkowski relieved B Lidge

The "ball" was a fastball up and in that knocked Yady to the ground. Whether it was intentional or not is questionable, as Lidge was all over the place with his fastball, but it's nice to see Yady get back in there turn on the very next pitch for an extra-base hit.

Other notes:
• The lines at the concession stands were as slow as any ballpark I've ever seen. On Friday night, I missed seeing the Wainright-Molina double play while waiting at a stand and on Sunday I spent two full innings out in the concourse in line. Also, I saw the longest non-postseason line at a men's room I've ever noticed at a ballpark, which went about twelve people strong out the door.

• The food, however, was excellent. They have stands called Rose's Taqueria that have fairly inexpensive ($4.25!) chicken and/or steak fajitas. The chili cheese fries from the regular stands, albeit more expensive ($6.25) are very good as well. If only they had T-bone steaks... after all, it is Texas.

• The Crawford Boxes don't feel quite as much on top of left field as I expected. Still, they weren't bad seats, if you can get 'em.

• Astros fans... uh, I think I'll be nice and say they suffer from entertainment-only syndrome. Guys like Brad Ausmus and Chris Burke got, inexplicably, some of the loudest ovations I heard all weekend. Craig Biggio's "hit counter", located on the left field wall next to the giant gas pump (and in front of the windmill), also appeared to be the most popular feature of the ballpark for these fans. Not once did I hear the words "Hunter Pence" uttered.

All in all, it was a good weekend (how could it not be if the Cards take the series?), but I was overall disappointed by Minute Maid. I prefer my ballparks to be a little less gimmicky than your average fan (New Busch as well), so perhaps I'm more sensitive than others, but Minute Maid just appeared to be much more over the top than other new ballparks I've seen. If I had to rank it, I'd put it a notch below the class of PNC, Petco, and Camden Yards, perhaps slotting it beneath Great American and Citizen's Bank but ahead of the likes of New Busch and New Comiskey.

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While Major League Baseball has made recent strides in elevating the number of minorities in its front offices and the central office, it has fought a losing battle against the well-known attrition of black athletes. Of players on major league rosters last season, only 8.7 percent were African-American.

I'm getting a sinister vibe here; MLB has made a fairly public point that it will do whatever it deems necessary to maximize its profits - take the recent Extra Innings/DirectTV, uh, agreement as an example. So, just as expected in the case of Jackie Robinson Day, the public relations machine is operating at full speed ahead - MLB.com has created an entire page devoted to Jackie and the celebration on Sunday, which likely took thousands of hours from their staff writers and web design group. Large for-profit corporations such as MLB don't just spend those kinds of resources out of goodwill; they spend them, in this case, in order to gain market share. A MLB representative even admitted as much in the aforementioned Post-Dispatch article:

Baseball, Solomon said, has also fought a losing marketing battle against basketball and football.

A losing marketing battle! Other sports aside, note the absence of a similar magnitude of official MLB server space devoted to Minnie Minoso or Roberto Clemente, two pioneering Latin players of the same era. Why? Perhaps it's because baseball has a wide following in Latin America, and the Latin minority is much better represented among its players (29.4% according to the same UCF study quoted in the Post-Dispatch). The Latin market doesn't need the investment to give MLB the return it wants, so MLB has decided to spend its money on African-Americans in the hope that they will return the favor. It's not the only reason for Jackie Robinson Day, but you'll have a hard time convincing this baseball fan that the marketing aspect of the day doesn't play a part in MLB's decision to promote it as much as they have.

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Adam Wainwright will long be remembered as the man who threw the final pitch of the 2006 World Series, striking out Brandon Inge for the win in Game 5, a victory for the ages, yadda yadda yadda. That's all well and good, but what's next? Starting games, you say? Does the Cardinal brass really think the kid who turned in arguably the most dominant month of relief pitching in Cardinal history can suddenly become a solid young starter? Well, yeah, they do. More importantly though, are they out of their minds for changing his role after he had such success as a late-inning reliever?

Well, if the former is true, PECOTA agrees with them. And despite the fact that there's not very many similar players who made the jump from a full year of relief to a full year of starting at age 25, there is still some evidence to support this hypothesis. As for whether the latter is true, well... let's take a look. Answers to both questions are provided below.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched". This time, however, it was more than just age-related. Since the majority of Wainwright's comparable pitchers were relievers, it made more sense to choose the ones in his top 20 comparables who made the most starts in their age-25 seasons to get the "top ten"; unfortunately, there weren't enough that started in their age-25 season to fill out the ten. So, the bottom four guys on the list I used were those who made the most starts of the 11-20 range on Wainwright's comps. There are some relievers on the list, yeah, so it's skewed. But I wanted to get a bigger sample than just the four guys who were at least part-time starters; I seperated those guys out later anyway.

Adam Wainwright
age 24 (2006): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 6 HR, 22 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Ryan Madson (1st overall)
age 24 (2005): 78 G (0 GS), 87 IP, 4.14 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 11 HR, 25 BB, 79 K
age 25 (2006): 50 G (17 GS), 134 1/3 IP, 5.69 ERA (81 ERA+), 1.68 WHIP, 20 HR, 50 BB, 99 K
2. Randy Moffitt (2nd overall)
age 24 (1973): 60 G (0 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 31 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1974): 61 G (1 GS), 102 IP, 4.50 ERA (85 ERA+), 1.25 WHIP, 9 HR, 29 BB, 49 K
3. Adrian Devine (3rd overall)
age 24 (1976): 48 G (1 GS), 73 IP, 3.21 ERA (118 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 3 HR, 26 BB, 48 K
age 25 (1977): 56 G (2 GS), 105 2/3 IP, 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 8 HR, 31 BB, 67 K
4. Mike Garman (4th overall)
age 24 (1974): 64 G (0 GS), 81 2/3 IP, 2.64 ERA (136 ERA+), 1.14 WHIP, 4 HR, 27 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1975): 66 G (0 GS), 79 IP, 2.39 ERA (158 ERA+), 1.53 WHIP, 3 HR, 48 BB, 48 K
5. Ron Davis (5th overall)
age 24 (1980): 53 G (0 GS), 131 IP, 2.95 ERA (133 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 32 BB, 65 K
age 25 (1981): 43 G (0 GS), 73 IP, 2.71 ERA (132 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 83 K
6. Rawly Eastwick (7th overall)
age 24 (1975): 58 G (0 GS), 90 IP, 2.60 ERA (138 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, 6 HR, 25 BB, 61 K
age 25 (1976): 71 G (0 GS), 107 2/3 IP, 2.09 ERA (168 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 3 HR, 27 BB, 70 K
7. Mike Harkey (9th overall)
age 24 (1991): 4 G (4 GS), 18 2/3 IP, 5.30 ERA (73 ERA+), 1.45 WHIP, 3 HR, 6 BB, 15 K
age 25 (1992): 7 G (7 GS), 38 IP, 1.89 ERA (191 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 4 HR, 15 BB, 21 K
8. Curt Schilling (11th overall)
age 24 (1991): 56 G (0 GS), 75 2/3 IP, 3.81 ERA (92 ERA+), 1.56 WHIP, 2 HR, 39 BB, 71 K
age 25 (1992): 42 G (26 GS), 226 1/3 IP, 2.35 ERA (150 ERA+), 0.99 WHIP, 11 HR, 59 BB, 147 K
9. Gary Glover (17th overall)
age 24 (2001): 46 G (11 GS), 100 1/3 IP, 4.93 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 16 HR, 32 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2002): 41 G (22 GS), 138 1/3 IP, 5.20 ERA (88 ERA+), 1.36 WHIP, 21 HR, 52 BB, 70 K
10. Pete Redfern (20th overall)
age 24 (1979): 40 G (6 GS), 108 1/3 IP, 3.49 ERA (126 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP, 8 HR, 35 BB, 85 K
age 25 (1980): 23 G (16 GS), 104 2/3 IP, 4.56 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 11 HR, 33 BB, 73 K

In case you're curious, those omitted were:
6th overall: Doug Bird, 1975-76 (age 25-26, reliever)
8th overall: Turk Farrell, 1959-60 (age 25-26, reliever)
10th overall: Bill Simas, 1996-97 (reliever)
12th overall: Rusty Meacham, 1992-93 (reliever)
13th overall: Rollie Fingers, 1971-72 (reliever)
14th overall: Joey McLaughlin, 1981-82 (reliever)
15th overall: Matt Anderson, 2001-02 (reliever)
16th overall: Cecilio Guante, 1984-85 (reliever)
18th overall: Steve Foucault, 1974-75 (reliever)
19th overall: Robb Nen, 1994-95 (reliever)

Averages:
age 24: 51 G (2 GS), 86 2/3 IP, 3.39 ERA (123 ERA+), 1.26 WHIP, 6.20 K/9, 0.74 HR/9, 2.89 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB
age 25: 46 G (9 GS), 111 IP, 3.62 ERA (122 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 5.90 K/9, 0.78 HR/9, 2.99 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB
Wainwright in 2006 (rate stats included): 61 G (0 GS), 75 IP, 3.12 ERA (141 ERA+), 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K/9, 0.72 HR/9, 2.64 BB/9, 3.27 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Wainwright in 2007: 25 G (25 GS), 151 2/3 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.18 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 2.85 BB/9, 2.52 K/BB

Of note:
• The thing that sticks out the most from this comparison is that on average, these guys got worse in every peripheral statistic from age 24 to age 25. Perhaps it's a condition of the sample I used; a good percentage of these guys made quite a few more starts at age 25, but still it's a bit of a shock that EVERY peripheral was worse. PECOTA forecasts the same for Wainwright as probably a casualty of the conversion to starting. Still, the forecast doesn't seem to greatly affect his ERA, as the weighted mean calls for a likely above-league-average 3.88, which would be very nice.

• Only four of the top 20 comparables made more than 7 starts in their age-25 season, which is what we all hope Wainwright will do. These four were Madson, Schilling, Glover, and Redfern. Those guys declined a lot less overall in HR/9 (0.90 to 0.94) and even improved their BB/9 (3.18 to 2.89), but their K/9 went down significantly (7.22 to 5.80) - probably from the transition to starting, as already stated. It's nice to see that the most similar guys in terms of role at age 25 handled themselves well - their ERA+ increased from 106 to 111.

• It's sort of interesting to see guys like Fingers and Nen, both of whom were regarded as a top-tier closer in their respective eras, on this list, although it maybe makes you wonder "what if".

• Curt Schilling's 1992 season was a big time breakout, easily the best campaign on the list. After arriving from the Astros in exchange for (yikes!) Jason Grimsley right before Opening Day, Schilling opened the season in the bullpen. After a sterling first month which earned him two saves and a 2.86 ERA (29 K/11 BB in 28 1/3 IP), he was moved into the Phillies' rotation to stay, and did not disappoint. Schilling pitched a whopping 198 innings of 2.27 ERA in only 26 starts (118 K/48 BB), holding hitters to a measely .539 OPS as a starter. He also completed 10 games and threw 4 shutouts. The best part? He only gave up 11 home runs in 226 1/3 innings. Wow. Wainwright almost surely won't become that kind of a stud right away (at least, not one with that kind of workload), but it's nice to see a season like that on this list nonetheless.

• Ryan Madson. Yeesh. Madson started his roller-coaster 2006 season in the Phillies' rotation, lost his job when the Phils called up phenom Cole Hamels in May, blew the win for Hamels in his major league debut, rejoined the rotation when the Phillies lost Jon Lieber to a groin injury two weeks later (and stuck for longer than anticipated thanks to Brett Myers', uh, issues in June), tied the major-league regular season record with four wild pitches in an inning in a start on July 25, then went back to the bullpen after Randy Wolf was deemed recovered from Tommy John surgery about a week later. When all was said and done, his 5.69 ERA was thanks to a fairly drastic starter/reliever split (6.28 in 90 1/3 IP as a starter, 4.50 in 44 IP as a reliever). And he just got his second loss in two games to start 2007. Yikes. We can only hope it doesn't turn out so bad.

Conclusion:
PECOTA is more optimistic about Wainwright than I am. It's gotta be hard as hell to transition from relief to starting - especially for a guy like Adam, who essentially has two pitches, fastball and curve. If Dave Duncan can teach him an effective third pitch, it's possible he could fool hitters enough to keep his HR rate down and his K rate up; however, with just two pitches in his arsenal, major league hitters ought to be good enough to figure him out eventually. That kind of stuff tends to fare better in relief. I have enough confidence in Dunc and Wainwright's makeup as a pitcher to create an effective starter; I'm just not convinced that it will happen in 2007. If Adam hits his PECOTA, I'll be pretty happy. And heck, if this starter thing doesn't work out, he could always go back to closing out playoff series, right?

Program Note: I'm leaving tomorrow afternoon for Houston. I'll be back Monday and hopefully soon thereafter, I'll have my review of Minute Maid Park. 0-3, outscored 20-2. Carp's elbow problems. Geesh. At least we've hit rock bottom early, there's nowhere to go but up!

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65 Eagle Fork Lane, 63362

Click Satellite.

Sweet. (thanks Mike)

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(MO Boiler on Apr 5, 2007 12:42 AM) Some people have too much time on their hands. Wait, I write on a blog. Never mind.

(Len Cleavelin on Apr 5, 2007 11:02 AM) Even the space aliens are Cards fans... whoda thunk it? :-)

Propitious omen or mere coincidence?

To celebrate Opening Day I bought a pack of Topps 2007 baseball cards today, and look who was in there.

Apparently there's a lot of dreck in the Topps 2007 set, like 100 cards that feature the date of Mickey Mantle (WTF??!!) home runs, and 40 different cards that celebrate each of David Wright's 40 doubles in 2006... I guess more = better.

Unlike the Topps cards, however, 2007's version of Opening Day/Night retains all its magical allure: the end of months of non-baseball; the end of the ever-more-excruciating preseason---each day of which is further removed from the words "pitchers and catcher report," just the compilation of more ultimately meaningless evidence that it's not the real thing yet; all the potential: all the what-ifs?, all the can theys? are still hanging in the air but each begins to be answered starting with the first pitch by Carp at 7:05 tonight....

My hopes and dreams after the break:

I'm keeping it simple:

Just make the postseason, and take it from there. That certainly seemed to work in 2006.

The World Series championship seemed vaguely unreal to me: I was so underwhelmed by the team that slouched their way into the postseason, and I never expected them to do much damage, unlike my hopes for the 2004 and 2005 teams.

The emotional high point for me, even more so than the eventual WS win, was winning Game 7 against the Mets in the NLCS: I jumped and whooped after the Wainwright kneebuckler and screamed to my wife "We're going to the World Series" and I felt an excitment and exhilaration that wasn't matched after the subsequent series win. That was probably due to the ridiculous Game 7 to cap off a very tense down-to-the-wire series, as compared to a sloppy, rain-delayed almost anticlimactic 5 Game WS dubbed by more than one cybercommentator "Worst Series Ever."

But it sure is sweet being World Champs (and let's face it: as lifelong fans of the Cardinals, we're World Champs, too) as we head into Opening Night.

I know the pundits are picking the Birds to win anywhere from 72 to 86 games, and I have to admit that it may be tough to see how we'd do much better---or even as well as---that upper figure.

But I see this 2007 team as a potential "breakout" team----as much as a defending World Series champion can be.

Various preseason forecasts have the Birds as a strong pitching-and-defense squad---many have them as 1st or 2nd in the league in run prevention---but almost all have the Cardinals in the bottom third of the league in scoring runs.

I read about how the Cardinals are Albert Pujols then a couple of injury-scarred vets past their primes surrounded by a bunch of black holes.

I just don't see it that way.

Here are the Birds avg/obp/slg by position in 2006:

C: .221/.277/.328 (.605 ops)
1b: .325/.416/.641 (1.057 ops)
2b: .263/.326/.375 (.701 ops)
3b: .305/.379/.554 (.933 ops)
ss: .290/.350/.361 (.711 ops)
lf: .273/.344/.434 (.778 ops)
cf: .252/.336/.404 (.739 ops)
rf: .272/.323/.469 (.793 ops)

The only OPSs up there that don't figure to rise are at 3b, where Spiezio kicked butt when filling in for Rolen, helping tp propel that number beyond Rolen's .887, and in RF, where Juancion's .760 was added to by baby Dunc.

But I foresee increases at C, where I continue to insist, as I have for two years, that there is a .275 avg./700 ops hitter inside Yadier Molina; at 2b, where Adam Kennedy has been well above---well, above, anyway---for the last 5 years the .701 contributed by our trio of second sackers in 2006; at LF, where I hope and pray the baby Dunc isn't a fluke and at CF, where I believe a scraped and sanded Jim Edmonds will put up at least an .850.

If all that happens, and Scott Rolen hits .280/.360/.500, we'll be fine no matter what happens in RF and we'll score 850 runs because of Albert and we'll win the Central, again.

After that, anything is possible.

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(MO Boiler on Apr 2, 2007 9:25 PM) That didn't turn out so well. Who knew Jose Valentin could play defense?

Before I get into the meat of this post, I have to state that I have never seen Anthony Reyes smile. Not once. Even on his Topps baseball card from last season - a non-action shot, mind you - he looks as stoic as a mannequin. It's almost creepy. He's a great young pitcher and I have no reason to believe he isn't an upstanding guy, but please, Anthony - look like you're having a little bit of fun out there.

That aside, what we saw from him in Game 1 of the World Series in Detroit was beautiful. Just absolutely perfect. It makes me wonder how he only put up a 5.06 ERA in 17 starts in 2006, especially after such a sparkling minor league career. Well, the answer is twofold: walks and home runs. Anthony got tagged for the highest walk and home run rates of his professional career in his major-league portion of 2006. These struggles have been explained by a few different theories: 1) fatigue coming into the second half of a season in which he set a career high in innings, 2) he still continues to struggle with the two-seam fastball the organization continues to insist he throw, and 3) his mechanics are out of whack. Whatever the reason, will the trend continue into 2007? Let's take a look, in the same manner we took a look at Chris Duncan's 2007 projection, after the jump.

Disclaimers on methodology are the same as stated here, except replace "OPS+" and "plate appearances" with "ERA+" and "innings pitched".

Anthony Reyes
age 24 (2006): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 17 HR, 34 BB, 72 K
age 25 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-25 Season
1. Bob Sebra (1st overall)
age 24 (1986): 17 G (13 GS), 91 1/3 IP, 3.55 ERA (104 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 9 HR, 25 BB, 66 K
age 25 (1987): 36 G (27 GS), 177 1/3 IP, 4.42 ERA (95 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 15 HR, 67 BB, 156 K
2. James Baldwin (2nd overall)
age 24 (1996): 28 G (28 GS), 169 IP, 4.42 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.33 WHIP, 24 HR, 57 BB, 127 K
age 25 (1997): 32 G (32 GS), 200 IP, 5.27 ERA (83 ERA+), 1.44 WHIP, 19 HR, 83 BB, 140 K
3. Tommy Greene (3rd overall)
age 24 (1991): 36 G (27 GS), 207 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA (109 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP, 19 HR, 66 BB, 154 K
age 25 (1992): 13 G (12 GS), 64 1/3 IP, 5.32 ERA (66 ERA+), 1.69 WHIP, 5 HR, 34 BB, 39 K
4. Paul Moskau (5th overall)
age 24 (1978): 26 G (25 GS), 145 IP, 3.97 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.35 WHIP, 17 HR, 57 BB, 88 K
age 25 (1979): 21 G (15 GS), 106 1/3 IP, 3.89 ERA (96 ERA+), 1.49 WHIP, 9 HR, 51 BB, 58 K
5. Brett Tomko (6th overall)
age 24 (1997): 22 G (19 GS), 126 IP, 3.43 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.21 WHIP, 14 HR, 47 BB, 95 K
age 25 (1998): 34 G (34 GS), 210 2/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.24 WHIP, 22 HR, 64 BB, 162 K
6. Paul Rigdon (7th overall)
age 24 (2000): 17 G (16 GS), 87 1/3 IP, 5.15 ERA (89 ERA+), 1.42 WHIP, 18 HR, 35 BB, 63 K
age 25 (2001): 15 G (15 GS), 79 1/3 IP, 5.79 ERA (76 ERA+), 1.66 WHIP, 13 HR, 46 BB, 49 K
7. Albie Lopez (8th overall)
age 24 (1996): 13 G (10 GS), 62 IP, 6.39 ERA (77 ERA+), 1.65 WHIP, 14 HR, 22 BB, 45 K
age 25 (1997): 37 G (6 GS), 76 2/3 IP, 6.93 ERA (68 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, 11 HR, 40 BB, 63 K
8. Doug Drabek (9th overall)
age 24 (1987): 29 G (28 GS), 176 1/3 IP, 3.88 ERA (106 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 22 HR, 46 BB, 120 K
age 25 (1988): 33 G (32 GS), 219 1/3 IP, 3.08 ERA (111 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, 21 HR, 50 BB, 127 K
9. Gil Meche (11th overall)
age 24 (2003): 32 G (32 GS), 186 1/3 IP, 4.59 ERA (97 ERA+), 1.34 WHIP, 30 HR, 63 BB, 130 K
age 25 (2004): 23 G (23 GS), 217 2/3 IP, 5.01 ERA (86 ERA+), 1.46 WHIP, 21 HR, 47 BB, 99 K
10. Eric Rasmussen (13th overall)
age 24 (1976): 43 G (17 GS), 150 1/3 IP, 3.53 ERA (100 ERA+), 1.28 WHIP, 10 HR, 54 BB, 76 K
age 25 (1977): 34 G (34 GS), 233 IP, 3.48 ERA (110 ERA+), 1.23 WHIP, 24 HR, 63 BB, 120 K

In case you're curious, the omitted two were:
4th overall: Ron Schueler, 1973-74 (age 25-26)
10th overall: Ray Washburn, 1963-64 (age 25-26)
12th overall: Don Cardwell, 1960-61 (made 38 starts in '61, too many for accurate comparison)

Averages:
age 24: 26 G (22 GS), 140 IP, 4.07 ERA (102 ERA+), 1.29 WHIP, 6.19 K/9, 1.14 HR/9, 3.03 BB/9, 2.04 K/BB
age 25: 28 G (23 GS), 149 1/3 IP, 4.44 ERA (94 ERA+), 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.28 BB/9, 1.86 K/BB
Reyes in 2006 (rate stats included): 17 G (17 GS), 85 1/3 IP, 5.06 ERA (87 ERA+), 7.59 K/9, 1.79 HR/9, 3.59 BB/9, 2.12 K/BB
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Reyes in 2007: 29 G (29 GS), 168 1/3 IP, 3.81 ERA. 7.54 K/9, 1.18 HR/9, 2.78 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB

Notes:
• The thing that stuck out the most was that the majority of these guys put up worse seasons at age 25 than at age 24. Most increased their workload (at the major league level, at least), but only three of the ten had a better ERA+ at age 25 than at age 24. And those three (Moskau, Drabek, and Rasmussen) all had only modest increases. In terms of won-lost record, this sample fared much worse in their age-25 seasons as well. I didn't include those numbers in the lists above (since these things aren't entirely performance-related), but overall this group posted a record of 88-75 at age 24, while dropping to 78-92 at age 25.

• Not only is this a list of guys who struggled at age 25, there are some ugly names among the more recent guys. Brett Tomko? Albie Lopez? Paul Rigdon? James Baldwin? Gil Meche? Yes, Meche got a huge contract this offseason, but ugh. Lopez was terrible, Rigdon disappeared (more later), Tomko never got any better and became a reliever, like Baldwin, and Meche hasn't had a league-average season since. It's not an inspiring group.

• Nobody on the list really seemed to have a season similar to Reyes' at age 24. Perhaps Rigdon, but his major and minor league K rates were far worse than Reyes', and I don't . None of these guys, actually, put up the K's in the minors or majors quite like Anthony. Makes you wonder why they're comparables. But none of the ones mentioned above who put up a better ERA+ in their age-25 season appear to compare to Reyes. A stud performance like Drabek's would be a nice bar to set, as Anthony has proven to have even better command, but he has to prove he will be more consistent with said command, in addition to his health, at the major league level.

• As stated before, Rigdon is a bit of a mystery. He didn't play in the majors past 2001, and the last news I saw of him in any team's system was his being assigned to the Red Sox's minor league camp in March 2004. He evidently had some, uh, involuntary plastic surgery done back in '01, but that didn't seem like it would've been career-ending. It's spooky seeing a guy end his professional baseball career before the age of 30, especially since he was pretty decent in small doses after he got sent down to the minors. I wonder what happened to him.

• PECOTA has a lot more faith in Anthony than his comparable players have justified. The projection looks for Anthony to keep his K rate slightly below his career level in the major leagues, but more importantly it believes that his career high walk and home run rates from 2006 are fluky based on solid rates from his minor-league days. And that translates to a solid ERA of 3.81. I think we'll all take that, as many are not so bullish on Reyes, but it's nice to know that the computer models are on our side. And unlike Chris Duncan, playing time shouldn't be a huge issue - if he is healthy and remotely effective, he could get to 200 innings if La Russa decides he doesn't have faith in what appears to be a shaky bullpen.

To conclude, I'm less optimistic about Reyes than PECOTA is. And it doesn't have anything to do with the comparables. Anthony pitched 181 1/3 IP total in 2006, far above his previous career high of 140. As linked before, there are concerns about the velocity on his fastball decreasing over the past year, and I am in the camp that if there was a decrease, it was probably fatigue-related. My bold prediction is this: if Anthony can physically handle the workload that will likely be demanded of him in 2007, I see no reason he won't improve on his ERA from 2006. But if he can't, and he is continually thrown to the wolves despite only throwing 88-90 mp on his 4-seam fastball... it could be ugly. So let's hope Anthony throws free and easy this season... and maybe, just maybe, cracks a smile.

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(salvomania on Apr 1, 2007 5:14 PM) I just watched the DVD of Reyes's Game 1 World Series start yesterday, and at the end of the game (in which Looper relieved him after Reyes allowed a homer leading off the 9th), when Reyes and the rest of the squad spill out onto the field to offer and collect congratulations, Reyes did in fact, briefly, crack a smile.

So, yeah, everyone's heard about it by now. And plenty of people, both inside and outside of Cardinal Nation have put in their two cents on the matter. But I implore you, the loyal readers of The Birdwatch: what do you think?

My opinion: hell yeah, he made a mistake. Should he be punished? Yes, and the state of Florida will take care of that. Should we judge him for this mistake? No. Why? He's human. People make mistakes - and celebrity or not, the decent thing to do is to forgive. It's obvious Tony is an upstanding guy. He has a clean record into his 60s, for God's sakes - what percentage of the population can say that? He knows he screwed up. I'd be willing to wager just about anything that he doesn't do it again, because he's just that kind of guy. He hates to fail his team on the field, and when he does he works his ass off to make up for it. What makes you think he wouldn't do the same in a situation like this? I say don't worry, Tony - here at The Birdwatch, we've (or at least I've) got your back.

UPDATE: Bill McClellan has a nice article on the topic as well.

And amazingly enough, that isn't the only Cardinal-related controversy of the week. Yikes. It's tough being on top.

Program note: Reyes and Wainwright projections to come... this weekend!

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(Erik on Mar 25, 2007 12:17 AM) I agree. He's a human being who has earned himself a huge amount of slack here. Drunk driving is a big deal, but from the sounds of it he had a few too many glasses of wine at dinner and is...well becoming an old guy. It's not like he was going ninety and swerving all over the road with a hooker in the car. Sounds like a pooped old guy who had 1 too many after a hard day's work who couldn't keep his eyes open. Also, I understand his blood alcohol level wouldn't even be considered over the limit in most states. He's obviously very sorry and quite humiliated and the right thing to do is applaud like crazy for him opening day. (But according to Jose what's his face at the Houston Chron, that would make me a 'moron'.)

Thanks, Dusty; your gift just keeps on giving!

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(Joey on Apr 4, 2007 2:21 PM) Right!!!! And you idiots have started out the season 0 and 2!!!! Good luck with Chris Carpenter's elbow. He's a great guy and a great pitcher, but Rehab Boy LaRussa has overused him too. May I suggest the "Towel Drill"? It seemed to work well for Prior's rehab the past three years. Joey

(MO Boiler on Apr 5, 2007 12:40 AM) 1908.

Way back in the early days of The Birdwatch, I took on the challenge of projecting the performance of the Cards' 2005 starting outfield based on their ten most similar players from baseball-reference.com. Those three outfielders were united by the fact that they were all rather old, and faced inevitable statistical declines. This time around, however, I'm going to take a look at three key players to the success of the 2007 Cardinals: Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, and Adam Wainwright. Unfortunately, these guys are too new to the majors to have similar players on B-R, so I've resorted to the glory that is PECOTA for their comparables. Yes, PECOTA has their own nifty projections, and I'll take a look at those after I'm done to determine their level of optimism.

So without further ado, let's start this bad boy off by taking a look at Chris Duncan (pictured above), the Cards' probable starting left fielder - after the jump, of course.

A bit about the method to my madness:

PECOTA does things a little differently than Bill James (whose formula B-R.com uses to compute similarity scores). For one, there's nothing in the database that computes similarity scores based on age - it's based on season-by-season progression. So, for example, Duncan's career going into 2007 is deemed to be most similar to Mike Epstein's career going into 1969. Since both Epstein and Duncan were both coming off their age-25 seasons, I consider it a viable comparison. However, Duncan's third-most similar career was Jason Thompson's going into 1980. However, Thompson was coming off his age-24 season going into 1980. Because of the age difference, I don't see Thompson to be as comparable a player as say, Michael Tucker going into 1997. Tucker was Duncan's 12th-most comparable player, but he was also coming off his age-25 season. My point with all of this? Instead of using PECOTA's 10 most comparables overall, I used the 10 highest comparables at the same age as Duncan (and on later projections, Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright). It's a touchy distinction to make, but I feel as though it's relevant for this particular study. Also of note: when I averaged OPS+ among all the players in each group, I just weighted it based on plate appearances - but I didn't really want to go back and look up league averages for 30 different years and weight them all just to have the final product turn out pretty much the same, if not exactly the same. Forgive me, I'm lazy. Anyway, here's the group I ended up with:

Chris Duncan
age 25 (1968): 90 G, 314 PA, .293/.363/.589, 141 OPS+
age 26 (2007): ???

Most Comparable Players In Age-26 Season
1. Mike Epstein (1st overall)
age 25 (1968): 123 G, 448 PA, .234/.338/.366, 117 OPS+
age 26 (1969): 131 G, 500 PA, .278/.414/.551, 175 OPS+
2. Carlos Pena (2nd overall)
age 25 (2003): 131 G, 516 PA, .248/.332/.440, 107 OPS+
age 26 (2004): 142 G, 561 PA, .241/.338/.472, 112 OPS+
3. Eric Anthony (6th overall)
age 25 (1993): 145 G, 539 PA, .249/.319/.397, 94 OPS+
age 26 (1994): 79 G, 288 PA, .237/.297/.412, 80 OPS+
4. Ben Grieve (7th overall)
age 25 (2001): 154 G, 639 PA, .264/.372/.387, 102 OPS+
age 26 (2002): 136 G, 561 PA, .251/.353/.432, 108 OPS+
5. Ryan Klesko (8th overall)
age 25 (1996): 153 G, 602 PA, .282/.364/.530, 127 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 143 G, 522 PA, .261/.334/.490, 111 OPS+
6. Ron Swoboda (9th overall)
age 25 (1969): 109 G, 375 PA, .235/.326/.361, 91 OPS+
age 26 (1970): 115 G, 289 PA, .233/.340/.392, 96 OPS+
7. Lee Thomas (10th overall)
age 25 (1961): 132 G, 345 PA, .285/.353/.491, 114 OPS+
age 26 (1962): 160 G, 439 PA, .290/.355/.467, 123 OPS+
8. Ryan Langerhans (11th overall)
age 25 (2005): 128 G, 373 PA, .267/.348/.426, 99 OPS+
age 26 (2006): 131 G, 369 PA, .241/.350/.378, 90 OPS+
9. Michael Tucker (12th overall)
age 25 (1996): 108 G, 393 PA, .260/.346/.442, 101 OPS+
age 26 (1997): 138 G, 554 PA, .283/.347/.445, 105 OPS+
10. Paul O'Neill (13th overall)
age 25 (1988): 145 G, 533 PA, .252/.306/.414, 102 OPS+
age 26 (1989): 117 G, 480 PA, .276/.346/.446, 123 OPS+

In case you're curious, the 3rd through 5th overall were:
Jason Thompson, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Willie Aikens, 1979-80 (age 24-25)
Mel Hall, 1985-86 (age 24-25)

Averages:
age 25: 133 G, 432 PA, .259/.341/.429, 106 OPS+ (16 HR, 60 RBI)
age 26: 129 G, 417 PA, .263/.350/.455, 115 OPS+ (18 HR, 65 RBI)
PECOTA weighted mean forecast for Duncan: 452 PA, .273/.356/.488 (20 HR, 65 RBI)

The concensus is, as it should be, a slight improvement from age-25 to age-26. This sample, in fact, made less plate appearances on average in their age-26 seasons, due to factors ranging from injuries to strike years, but produced more raw HR/RBI numbers - most likely thanks to a better lineup spot and increased production.

Of note:
• The biggest gainer on the list was clearly Epstein, posting an oh-so-pretty .278/.414/.551 line for the 2nd-generation Washington Senators in '69, which translates to a 175 OPS+ thanks to a pitcher-friendly era and park effect. I drool a little when I look at his 85/99 BB/K ratio from that season, but playing under Ted Williams and with the likes of Frank "Hondo" Howard might've helped his approach a little bit. Also, he probably benefitted greatly from the increased hitting environment following the Year of the Pitcher in '68; the league average OPS in his parks went up 50 points in '69 from the previous year. If Duncan can put up a .414 OBP batting in the 2-hole ahead of a healthy Pujols/Rolen/Edmonds, the Cards would score a ton of runs despite the Juan Encarnacion-sized hole in the bottom of the order. Unfortunately, I think a year like that is hopelessly optimistic to expect out of him.

• The player who had the most similar season to Duncan's 2006 in his age-25 campaign was probably Klesko - and his percentages dropped across the board the next year. Still, at .261/.334/.490 for the Braves in '97, his 111 OPS+ age-26 season was better than a lot of guys on this list. I wouldn't be too upset if Duncan duplicated those numbers in '07.

• PECOTA is higher on Duncan than the comparable player averages are. In fact, in terms of raw offense, PECOTA even considers him to be the Cardinals' best outfielder in 2007, narrowly outVORPing Jim Edmonds 22.5 to 22.3.

• Playing time is a big factor in projecting what Duncan will do in 2007. Based on his past struggles against left-handed pitching (.204/.250/.429 career) and his liabilities on defense, it's hard to see La Russa playing him against any lefties at all, or late in games during which the Cardinals have a lead. Thus, 500 PA is a bit of a stretch. Even PECOTA's 452 PA projection might not be attained if Chris struggles in April and May - we all know Tony can have a short leash with young hitters not named Pujols. The Cardinals also have a glut of outfielders, with Duncan, Edmonds, Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, John Rodriguez, and even Scott Spiezio all on the 40-man roster. Barring a trade or long-term injury, all of those guys will have a role and get their plate appearances - which lessens the opportunities for Duncan.

• I was moderately surprised not to see St. Louis native Ryan Howard on this list; he wasn't even in Duncan's top twenty comparables. The major league numbers of the two players are virtually identical through their age-25 campaigns, but upon further review, it appears Howard had much gaudier numbers in AA and AAA, which PECOTA takes into account. The other clear difference: the Phillies traded Jim Thome to make way for Howard to be the full-time starter at first base going into the 2006 season, allowing him to get 700 PA without any major threats from the bench. As mentioned above, Duncan could repeat his 2006 rates and still only get 500 PA thanks to La Russa's obsession with playing the matchups.

In conclusion, I think Chris Duncan is an interesting case. (Of course I can use that cliché, dammit, why else would I write about him?) My personal opinion is that the PECOTA projection will probably be closer - he's a big kid, and I don't see him losing the pop in his bat overnight. True, a few of those home runs might clank off the wall as doubles, but I don't see him slugging below .500 if he keeps the batting average up. I trust he'll see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of the big boppers (yet another cliché, but it's true), so assuming he remains as selective as he was last year at times, he could probably manage a decent OBP. But I have a feeling that last year's numbers are quite possibly a best-case scenario. Worst case? He bats .200 through April and May and continues to struggle in left field, and sees his playing time decrease to the point that he's just a left-handed power bat off the bench. Still, if I were a betting man (NCAA Tournament pools aside), I'd take the over when it comes to his PECOTA projection. Let the kid play, let's see what he can do.

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(The Ol Goaler on Mar 15, 2007 10:54 AM) I remain of the opinion that Slam Dunc has _improved_ as a hitter since his minor league days; he's shortened his swing, and become more selective at the plate. He still has power, but he also has fewer "holes" in his swing. As far as defense goes, I'm among those who think that a good athlete (which Dunc is) can learn to be adequate defensively as a corner OF. I think La Russa's plan to employ Dunc solely in LF (rather than switching him back and forth between left and right) will help Dunc become an OK outfielder. The guy runs pretty well for his size; taking all the fly balls he has this spring can only help.